A powerful Kelvin Wave continued to ripple through the near-surface waters of the Equatorial Pacific this week — heightening sea surface temperatures, strengthening an ongoing El Nino, and pushing a wave of oceanic heat back into a human-warmed atmosphere that is hotter now than at any time in modern human reckoning.
High temperature anomalies in the Kelvin Wave plug have spread out across the ocean surface. Readings in the range of +1 to +2 C above average stretch along surface waters all the way from the Date Line through 120 West Longitude. East of the 120 line, surface waters have now hit readings of 2 to 4 degrees Celsius above average. And lurking just below the surface along thousands of miles of ocean is a dense zone of 5-6 degree above average water. A zone of extreme heat at the heart of the current intense Kelvin Wave:
(A strong Kelvin Wave shuts down atmospheric heat transfer into the Equatorial Pacific setting up conditions for an extended El Nino and possible new record heat for 2015. Image Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.)
Heat that could well make 2015 yet another worsening of the human warming and extreme weather twilight zone we now find ourselves in.
Pushing into Moderate El Nino Range
According to NOAA’s weekly El Nino report, sea surface temperatures in the critical Nino 3.4 region hit a range of 1 degree C above average last week. A jump from the previous week’s measure of +0.7 C and a new push toward moderately strong El Nino levels off the back of the current warm Kelvin Wave. Atmospheric teleconnections that are signatures of a moderate El Nino also began to emerge over past weeks — with a strengthening of the subtropical Jet and related storm track setting off powerful tornadoes, thunderstorms and heavy rain events in states bordering the Gulf of Mexico over the past ten days.
Heat content from the current Kelvin Wave is enough to continue to keep Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures in present ranges or to push for further warming over at least the next 1-2 months. A set of factors that will almost certainly lock near moderate El Nino conditions in through Summer and general El Nino conditions through early Autumn. The result is that the extra heat bleed off the Pacific Ocean will combine with the impressive human forcing to generate a high risk that 2015 atmospheric temperatures will beat out all-time record highs set in 2014.
Model Runs Still Showing Potential for Super El Nino
(Unweighted model ensemble runs show the current El Nino peaking out at extreme intensity. Long range model runs can be quite uncertain, but these are very high values. Image source: NOAA Seasonal and Monthly SST Anomalies.)
NOAA model runs also show a potential for El Nino strengthening through the end of 2015. Probability weighted CFS model ensembles (PDF) point toward a seasonal anomaly for Nino 3.4 in the range of 1998 Super El Nino values at 2.1 degrees Celsius above average by the end of 2015. Mean model runs (non-weighted) push the long range forecast heat values even higher at 2.6 C above seasonal averages or 2.75 C above monthly averages.
These unweighted long range forecasts are well outside the strength of even the monster event of nearly two decades ago. A new super El Nino that would have very serious consequences for global temperatures and result in far-reaching climate impacts should it emerge. Atmospheric temperatures that are now in the range of +0.7 C above 20th Century averages and +0.9 C above 1880s values could well push into a new range at +0.8 C and +1 C, or higher, respectively.
(Long range models show Equatorial Pacific has potential to hit near Super El Nino status by late 2015. At this time, such model runs are low certainty. Image source: NOAA Seasonal and Monthly SST Anomalies.)
Cranking up the Human Hothouse
Entering the range of 1-2 C above 1880s values is a zone of heat anomaly that will amplify already apparent ice sheet melt, sea level rise, droughts, wildfires, water stress, and ocean health impacts. At temperatures around +1.5 C we begin to enter a period of strong glacial outflows, weather instability, geophysical changes, and record related storm events in a ‘Storms of My Grandchildren‘ type scenario. At +2 C these very dangerous impacts will likely be in full swing.
It is worth noting that it took 10,000 years to warm the world 4 degrees Celsius at the end of the last ice age. Under current human fossil fuel burning scenarios, it is likely that we reach half that threshold in just 150 to 170 years — from 1880 to 2030-2050. A rapid reduction in fossil fuel emissions along a progression to a net carbon negative human society over the next few decades is absolutely necessary to prevent these outcomes. And while model forecasts indicating the potential for a Super El Nino type event for late 2015 may be somewhat uncertain, there is a much higher certainty that very dangerous climate impacts starting at the current level of human warming will ramp up here on out — with the 1.5 C threshold looking very bad and the 2.0 C threshold looking terrible.
As such, we should do all we can to prevent hitting those marks.
Links:
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
NOAA Seasonal and Monthly SST Anomalies
The Storms of My Grandchildren
Far Worse than Being Beaten With a Hockey Stick
robertscribbler 
wili
/ April 29, 2015When a bunch of the forecasting models for El Nino are literally off the charts, it’s time to sit up and take notice.
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Andrew Dodds
/ April 30, 2015You mean it’ll be the start of another ‘pause’.
I sometimes think that some of the ‘skeptics’ would still claim it wasn’t happening if the WAIS slid into the sea tomorrow..
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robertscribbler
/ April 30, 2015You’re right, Andrew. They’ve pretty much lost any rational credibility at this point and are desperately involved in managing perceptions.
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humortra
/ April 29, 2015http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/el-nino-could-strike-this-year-says-australian-weather-bureau-115042800784_1.html
“India’s two main weather forecasting agencies — state-run IMD and private agency Skymet Weather — have two diagrammatically divergent views on the impact El Niño will have on this year’s southwest monsoon.
According to Skymet, El Nino will not have a perceptible impact on southwest monsoon and it will start tapering after the summer.”
“IMD, which is also part of the forum, says there is a 70 per cent chance of El Niño persisting during the southwest monsoon and it won’t show any declining trend.
In its forecast, the IMD said a below-normal monsoon in 2015 at 93 per cent of the long period average ((average of rainfall between 1951 and 2000) will have more pronounced impact in northern, central and western parts of the country.
Although much of this region —particularly Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh — has good irrigation facilities, any shortfall in monsoon increases the cost of production and could aggravate the distress in rural India.”
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robertscribbler
/ April 30, 2015It’s rather warm in the Central Pacific at this time. Historically, that is not a good prognosis for the Indian Monsoon.
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james cole
/ April 30, 2015“Atmospheric temperatures that are now in the range of +0.7 C above 20th Century averages and +0.9 C above 1880s values”
To THINK what that amount of warming has done to Arctic Sea Ice, High Latitude Tundra and permafrost, Antarctica and Global Glaciers, how much more awful is +1c going to be? A Rhetorical Question of course! But it bears thinking about how fast global ice formations will melt away, never to return in human scale time.
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robertscribbler
/ April 30, 2015Absolutely, James. And the notion of 4-9 C by end Century is just horrific.
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Ouse M.D.
/ April 30, 2015I guess it is also the RATE of CO2 increase is what determines how fast the amplifying feedbacks kick in.
As You wrote, the methane outbursts are likely not to have been seen in 40 million years.
And this, at a CO2 level seen “only” 3-5 million years ago.
Arctic Sea Ice loss will slingshot us back 150.000 years before present.
But, as said horrifying is that such feddbacks are already in motion, that do not really correlate with the CO2 levels.
So, my conclusion is, it is rather the PACE, that determines these processes and not only CO2 levels alone.
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robertscribbler
/ April 30, 2015We sit at the end of a long cool down. That means there are quite a lot of carbon stores ready to be activated at each level of warming beyond the ice age interglacial peaks. The question is how strongly and how rapidly they respond to forcing. We are beyond the Holocene threshold now and are probably pushing the Eemian threshold, especially in some sections of the Arctic, which were much cooler during the Eemian even though the globe was as warm or warmer than it is now. At about 2.5 C you get into the range of 3-5 million year old carbon stores and on down the line.
Also, since we are dealing with an accumulation of heat, one that is quite rapid and driven by forcing that are mostly not natural, we need to consider that the heating may be uneven and that some stores will be stressed outside of this rough estimate.
NSIDC research this month found that the permafrost carbon store will probably release around 92 gigatons this Century and around 200 gigatons long term. For reference, the IPCC 2 C limit is at around 790 gigatons of which humans have already emitted 515. Of course the NSIDC permafrost feedback doesn’t include feedback from other potentially destabilized carbon stores.
These stores do represent a tipping point in that net carbon additions from natural store release is an accelerant to human warming. A human warming multiplier, if you will. And it underlines the urgency for a very rapid response and reduction to zero and net negative emissions as we see some carbon store (albeit minor compared to what we would see later under continued warming) activation now.
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Griffin
/ April 30, 2015Robert, James, Ouse, this thread between the three of you hit me like a ton of bricks.
It is an eerie feeling to grasp the reality of your comments.
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Leif Knutsen
/ April 30, 2015Science has been telling us for years that ~90% of the global warming energy goes into oceans, the heat is still there. ~2 billion Hiroshima size bombs worth of energy since 1998 alone! That amount of extra energy is a formidable amount and will make a reappearance.
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robertscribbler
/ April 30, 2015It’s melting Greenland and Antarctica from the bottom up…
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Timothy Chase
/ April 30, 2015One thing that I have wondered in this vein… Colder waters tend to be more biologically productive waters. This is why tropical water is so clear and colder waters so opaque. (I believe this is due to the fact that colder water is able to hold more oxygen and carbon dioxide.) This being the case, I would expect their to be large methane deposits along the continental shelves of Greenland and Antarctica formed from fallen organic material from the more biologically active layers above.
Now if warm water is melting the ice shelves of both Greenland and Antarctica from the bottom up, is this water warming the methane hydrates along the shelves? Furthermore, at least in the case of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet it is my understanding that there passages, essentially rivers, running under the ice sheet that is otherwise fastened to the rock underneath. Is the warm water being driven into those channels? Will it melt the ice sheet from the bottom up? I assume this would be potentially faster than if the warm water simply ate away at the ice sheet from the outer edges in.
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robertscribbler
/ May 1, 2015You can get a kind of compounding effect in that the bottom water warms, providing a mechanism for enhanced methane release in the biologically productive regions (and you’re absolutely right, the cold waters are far more productive due to high oxygen and CO2 in solution). The warming eats away at the ice undersides which sets off a cold surface water outflow. The lighter, fresh cold water expands away from the glacier system pushing warmer, heavier, salty water beneath it (the warm water is usually lighter but the less dense fresh water, though cold, holds the trump card). This reinforces the deep water heat feedback which destabilizes more methane and melts more ice, driving the fresh water wedge into warmer, saltier regions. Eventually, if the process continues, what you end up with is a stratified ocean with a hot, methane rich, and very oxygen poor bottom. That’s your Canfield Ocean precursor.
As glaciers melt at the edge, warm water invades further beneath the structure. This drives the grounding line inland and floods low lying shelfs and canyons. If you looks at topographical maps of Greenland and Antarctica alike, you will find broad regions that are now below sea level and are vulnerable to this kind of invasion. Greenland is essentially a frozen archipelago surrounding what would be an inland sea if it thawed out.
You’re right in that the sub glacial rivers, especially those that already run through below sea level zones provide potential invasion pathways once bottom melt encroaches upon them. The channels they carve serving as avenues inland for the melt front. Sea level rise, if fast enough to beat crustal rebound and gravity effects, compounds the issue.
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Andy in San Diego
/ April 30, 2015San Diego’s paltry water assets may soon be significantly reduced
http://www.sandiegoreader.com/news/2015/apr/28/ticker-water-deal-imperial-valley-new-yorker/
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dtlange
/ April 30, 2015Doesn’t look good for SD.
I liked the way the article added some comments of others that showed some social values and context, and the way the subject is talked about.
‘It is hot in the valley, up to a hundred and twenty degrees in the summer months. The farmers tend to travel. Their wives may prefer to spend summers in La Jolla. Half the land is tenant-farmed; in some cases, the owners live elsewhere. “It functions as a plantation,” a local activist told me.’
‘[San Diego Water Authority general manager Maureen] Stapleton glanced sharply at [her associate, Dan] Denham, and, when she thought I wasn’t looking, mouthed the word “careful.”
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robertscribbler
/ April 30, 2015SD may get its rain, especially if those models bear out. SD may not like the rain when it comes.
This current drought highlights California’s vulnerabilities to other events in the pipe. May also want to note that the Jet Stream over the U.S. is flattening out for the first extended period in months. Probably an upshot of the strong equatorial warming we are seeing as a result of this building El Niño in combination with the typical seasonal switch in albedo forcing. Sea ice melt vs El Niño effects on the Jet this summer, fall and winter. We could see some wild swings if melt is extensive.
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dtlange
/ April 30, 2015I see the RRR is doing “picket duty” off the west coast, and a ridge over the SW.
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robertscribbler
/ April 30, 2015It’ll be dry through at least summer. Winter/Autumn would be the time to look for. Though the ridge is flattening and may let a little storm through to the Washington/Oregon region at around the 4 day horizon.
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firstdano
/ April 30, 2015My concern – as an ex-Californian – is the fire season this year, then the prospect of El Nino rains washing down the burned hillsides. And then another year with little snow. Sheesh.
Best,
D
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dtlange
/ April 30, 2015-On the language and terminology front, I offer:
Alternate powerful sounding terms and descriptors to use or intersperse with “tame” ones currently in use. There must be many more to throw at the unfolding crisis. Add at will…
“climate change”
runaway climate collapse
unfolding weather crisis
“scientist”
knowledgeable experts
knowledgeable sources
eminent experts
###
OUT
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dtlange
/ April 30, 2015Or:
knowledgeable sources and scientists
eminent experts and scientists
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dtlange
/ April 30, 2015We here at at RS know the difference but many others, and the timid ones, may need help in getting the hard reality across.
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Apneaman
/ April 30, 2015Have you seen this one dt?
Nitrogen fingerprints point to warmer world
http://news.ucdavis.edu/search/news_detail.lasso?id=11207
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dtlange
/ April 30, 2015Thanks Apneaman, That’s a good one. I’ve seen similar things, and this one puts a lot of N into perspective.
Ps UC Davis has done some marvelous work on many fronts. I used to report some Santa Barbara butterfly migration (Vanessa cardui PaintedLady) observations to an expert there.
Them and Scripps are a trove of info and studies.
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robertscribbler
/ April 30, 2015Good ones, DT. Will keep them in the quiver.
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dnem
/ April 30, 2015Sorry to be slightly OT, but living here in Baltimore, and experiencing the events of the past week, I can’t help but ponder how thin the veil of civilization is right now. Just take the underlying structural social issues and then layer on, say, summer heat, storm damage, water shortages, blackouts, etc. It is all feeling very fragile. We are struggling at 0.8 C; 1.5 or 2.0 feels entirely untenable. 4+ is obviously preposterous.
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Andy in San Diego
/ April 30, 2015I don’t see that as OT as all!
We’re watching that thin veneer of civilization get peeled back over and over all over the world for various reasons. Yemen, Mali, Tunisia, Syria etc… We are all 3 days without water away from regressing to animals.
If our fiat currency collapsed, then what Baltimore is experiencing would occur across the country (and world) on an epic scale with most if not all cities concurrently erupting.
In Sao Paolo civilization is gradually degrading as the availability and quality of their water disappears.
In the end there are only 3 real currencies, food, water and shelter.
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Leif Knutsen
/ April 30, 2015I would humbly add “Planetary life support systems” to your list Andy in SD.
“We don’t have a right to ask whether we’re going to succeed or not – the only question we have a right to ask is: What’s the right thing to do? What does this Earth require of us if we want to continue to live on it?” Wendell Berry
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Ryan in New England
/ April 30, 2015A comment from an article on the Sao Paolo water crisis comes to mind. It was from a middle class woman who lived in a high rise apartment building. She said after a few days without water everybody started “acting like animals.” Hunger and thirst can be powerful forces that cause civility to go right out the window in rapidly devolving situations.
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Wharf Rat
/ April 30, 2015If kindness and comfort are, as I suspect, the results of an energy surplus, then, as the supply contracts, we could be expected to start fighting once again like cats in a sack. In the presence of entropy, virtue might be impossible
George Monbiot
http://www.monbiot.com/2004/10/06/no-longer-obeying-orders/
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mmaakie
/ April 30, 2015so when u say ‘decades’, does that mean we have? decades? to prep for the obvious shtf scenario i keep reading here? (really needing to know). TY for an answer, k…
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robertscribbler
/ April 30, 2015The question is how much stuff hitting the fan is survivable. We see stress at +0.8 C now, but we’re still limping through. Places like São Paulo and California and Syria and the Pacific Islands and many other places are getting hammered because we’ve waited so long and put these marginal regions out on a limb. And the stress just gets worse from here.
Is 1.5 C warming this Century easy to deal with? Absolutely not. We probably see major impacts, mass migration, and increased costs and strain to societies with some collapses likely unavoidable. 2 C is worse. But there’s a decent chance that some political systems remain in tact and are able to respond in a manner in which a decent element of civilization survives and evolves to meet challenges. This issue is one of confronting ever worsening challenges as long as warming is ongoing and dealing with the consequences of warming even after the ramp up in global heating is halted (hopefully halted, that is).
So the answer is that 0.8 C is more survivable than 1.5 C, which is more survivable than 2 C which is more survivable than 4 C and that 9 C in one or two Centuries is probably as bad or worse than the Permian. Each step upward on this ramping scale is a step we want to avoid, if at all possible. So we are much better off if we push for a rapid draw down to zero and net negative human carbon emissions and a blanket abolition of fossil fuel burning on purely moral grounds. The goal is to prevent as much harm as possible, even if some harm is locked in.
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Andy in San Diego
/ April 30, 2015Watch The Birth Of A 17-Mile Iceberg
http://gizmodo.com/watch-the-birth-of-a-17-mile-iceberg-1700342154
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Wharf Rat
/ April 30, 2015BREAKING: California Governor Issues North America’s Most Aggressive Climate Goal
On Wednesday morning, four-term California Governor Jerry Brown issued an executive order that aims to reduce California’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/29/3652570/breaking-california-climate-pledge-jerry-brown/
just add water
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todaysguestis
/ April 30, 2015Melting moments: a look under East Antarctica’s biggest glacier
“The project’s results have quite dramatically shifted our view of East Antarctica, in terms of both the overall picture of ice stability in the region, and the implications of the changes in the Totten Glacier itself. The previous view was that, aside from a poorly mapped valley far inland of Casey called the Aurora Basin, most of the ice was resting on hills and mountains, well above sea level. But it turns out that Aurora Basin is very deep and much larger than we thought.
More seriously, the basin is connected to the coast by terrain that is extensively below sea level. This makes it much more like West Antarctica, where there is serious concern that gradual but irreversible ice loss is already under way. The prospect that such a pattern could also impact East Antarctica is a new one – and the prospect that the Totten Glacier’s thinning could herald a similar process of accelerating ice loss in East Antarctica is deeply concerning.”
https://theconversation.com/melting-moments-a-look-under-east-antarcticas-biggest-glacier-40960
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Timothy Chase
/ April 30, 2015Look at NASA GISS annual land and sea:
… we find that pre-1998 had a maximum annual (Jan-Dec) temperature anomaly of 0.45°C. Somewhat cooled by the La Niña that followed in the wake of the last super El Niño, 1999 and technically 2000 are both still part of the 20th Century, each with annual temperature anomaly of 0.40°C. Post-2000 had a minimum annual temperature anomaly of 0.49°C, set in 2008. As such, other than the super El Niño -warmed year of 1998, the hottest year of the 20th century was colder than the coldest year of the 21st century.
Another super El Niño may very well turn the ratchet another notch, in short time placing even the hottest temperatures that precede it behind even the coolest temperatures that follow.
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robertscribbler
/ April 30, 2015It was a +0.2 to +0.25 C rocket from highest previous levels, with continued, though slower warming to follow. Similar movement would put us in the range of +0.8 to +0.9 C vs 20th Century and +1.0 to +1.1 C vs 1880. I guess we can console ourselves somewhat with the fact that the long range forecasts aren’t too certain. However, if this ends up being worse than 1998…
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Andy in YKD
/ April 30, 2015This may have been posted on an prior thread:
Snip: Separate work by Mann, presented in a Scientific American article he wrote last April, also indicates that the pause will not last long. Mann calculated that if the world continues to burn fossil fuels at the current rate, global warming would rise to two degrees Celsius by 2036 (compared with preindustrial levels), crossing a threshold that would harm human civilization. And even if the pause persists for longer than expected, the world would cross the line in 2046. The article includes a monumental graph showing all the details. Mann also published the data sources and formula he used, on Scientific American’s Web site, so anyone could replicate his calculations.”
Link: http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2015/02/26/the-pause-in-global-warming-is-finally-explained/
Comment: The statement Mann makes ” if the world continues to burn fossil fuels at the current rate” would seem to indicate that if we emit CO2 at the rate we did last year for another 20 years he calculates a 2 degree rise in 20 years. So, emissions need to only stay flat based on last year’s number to get there. By then the Arctic carbon stores are being released based on research that that occurs at 1.5 degrees.
Would we here on this site be particularly surprised if Mann’s estimated temperature rise still proved to be on the low side?
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robertscribbler
/ April 30, 2015His research and that of others is where I get the 2030 to 2050 range above.
Also covered Mann’s model runs here:
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firstdano
/ April 30, 2015@dtlange / April 30, 2015:
picket duty
If you look at the 500 mb polar projection, the flow is zonal over the W coasts of both continents. This is one slice of time, but an indicator that the ridge is changing pattern for now. More concerning is that the N Hem flow doesn’t look like a typical springtime pattern for this time of year. Good for severe wx concerns in USA, I suppose…
Best,
D
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Near 120W 40N
/ April 30, 2015Take a look at this chart closely: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.jpg
Notice the linear progression of the peak ONI values for each successive severe El Nino. 1958, ’66, ’73, ’83, ’98. Each peak ONI value is slightly higher than the one before it. If the CFSv2 forecast holds true and we get EN3.4 readings above +2.5 C or better later this year, then the increasing ONI peak pattern will again hold true.
This pattern could be random variation; it could be some long-term cycle that I’m not aware of; it could be the influence of the long slow climb in CO2 and associated AGW (the area under each spike is oceanic heat shedding?).
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robertscribbler
/ April 30, 2015Absolutely fascinating insight. You may be marking climate change in ocean time.
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dtlange
/ April 30, 2015– I guess it had to happen. (At least Pope Francis has a heart.)
EARTHLY POWERS
Conservatives lash out at the Pope over climate change
…
Helping to lead the charge against the pope is the Heartland Institute, a US group backed by billionaire Charles G. Koch, one of the main financiers of American conservative causes. In a statement on Heartland’s website, the group’s president, Joseph Bast, says, “The Holy Father is being misled by ‘experts’ at the United Nations who have proven unworthy of his trust.”
Bast adds: “Though Pope Francis’s heart is surely in the right place, he would do his flock and the world a disservice by putting his moral authority behind the United Nations’ unscientific agenda on the climate.”
http://qz.com/394820/us-and-uk-conservatives-lash-out-at-the-pope-over-climate-change/
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dtlange
/ April 30, 2015(At least Pope Francis has a heart.) AND morals, which you won’t likely find at Heartless-Land.
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robertscribbler
/ April 30, 2015Glad we have the Pope we do. If Heartland attacks you, you can be pretty certain you’re doing the moral, just thing. And there is no group more at odds with the interests of the poor this Pope has done so much to advance. Now, how about throwing these ‘money changers’ out of the temple ;).
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Colorado Bob
/ April 30, 2015Methane gas reaches ocean surface
Scientists are returning from their first proper study of methane gas seeping, sometimes in massive flares up to 250 metres high, from the sea floor off the Gisborne coast.
The vast network of gas seeps – erupting from near a glacier of frozen methane – was discovered last year by NIWA’s research vessel Tangaroa, piquing the interest of scientists because it was much shallower than other similar seeps.
The Tangaroa revisited the area last month so 11 scientists could have a closer look. It returns to Wellington today.
“We wanted to find out whether methane is getting through the water column to the ocean’s surface and into the atmosphere – if so, how much and determine what contribution it’s making to global greenhouse gas,” said team leader Joshu Mountjoy.
They remapped the area and discovered that every area of carbonate rock and every fault seen on the seafloor was expelling gas. They believe there are 766 individual gas flares within the area.
Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/methane-gas-reaching-ocean-surface-2015050106#ixzz3YpS040VG
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dtlange
/ April 30, 2015– Teaser photos of un-vetted dry land algal blooms, or as I phrase it, algae plumes. Likely made possible by an overabundance of aerosol nutrients such as nitrogen. Location: Portland, OR USA. Atmospheric chemistry deposition at its greenest.
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dtlange
/ April 30, 2015LikeLike
dtlange
/ April 30, 2015Check out the fence in the background. The area on the right that is shaded by the tree canopy does not appear have green growth — as opposed to that which is exposed to aerosol fallout. The leaves and yellow curb are for color reference.
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dtlange
/ April 30, 2015– Just up the coast from UC Santa Barbara, I used to surf the point to the upper right of this place. Many walks and hikes there too over the years.The sandy beach was maybe 60 meters wide here. I never saw algae green anything, anywhere. But in 09-2012 there was this.
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dtlange
/ April 30, 2015I better take a nap. I think I have methane bubbles in my blood 🙂
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dtlange
/ April 30, 2015But, before I go — a soot and traffic dust covered USPS mail pick up box. It’s blue and it’s right outside a hospital in Santa Barbara. The fingers are mine.
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dtlange
/ April 30, 2015File under LOW ALTITUDE ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY THAT BLISTERS STURDY OUTDOOR PAINT
– The right side faces the roadway traffic and the air currents. The left side gets more sun. Between the powerful traffic dust and soot– and radiant heat from the sun acting upon a dark albedo challenged surface, we have blistering pock marked paint. It’s the same USPS box as above. I used to ride my bike there as I commuted to work at a bookstore. But then the traffic dust got so thick that my bike tires kicked up the dust, and into my face, eyes, and nose. So I stopped biking, and I rode the bus to work.
Note the sun’s radiant heat is very powerful and it acts upon the chemical components of ash, soot, and dust etc. Mix with water, or ice melt, and it’s in solution. Yes?
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Ryan in New England
/ May 1, 2015Those are some powerful images, dt. There it is, right in front of everyone’s face, yet it goes overlooked, ignored or is just not cared about. You’re doing important work, and thank you for your efforts!
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dtlange
/ May 2, 2015Thanks, Ryan.
It’s a tragic pity that no one notices the world around them, or next to them, or at their feet. I practically trip over the messes.
Many times, I’ve walked away muttering out loud, ” I did not want to find this! I did not want to see this!”
Oh, well.
Peace
OUT
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Colorado Bob
/ April 30, 2015Climate Changes Affect Greenland First, Antarctica in 200 Years
No, I’m not talking about 200 years from present day. But new research has shown evidence of a 200-year lag between climate events in Greenland and Antarctica during the last ice age, and it could possibly help shed light on the consequences of climate change in the future.
The study, published in the journal Nature, also is giving scientists a clearer picture of the link between climate in the northern and southern hemispheres, and how the ocean likely plays a part.
During the last ice age, Greenland experienced abrupt changes in mean annual temperature, each which occurred within several decades. These so-called “Dansgaard-Oeschger events” took place every few thousand years. Meanwhile, Antarctica’s climate at the time looked very different. In fact, it was the exact opposite, with the White Continent cooling when Greenland was warm, and vice versa.
In the study, a team of researchers from Oregon State University (OSU) discovered that the abrupt climate changes show up first in Greenland, with the response to the Antarctic climate delayed by about 200 years. The researchers documented 18 abrupt climate events in all during the past 68,000 years.
“The fact that temperature changes are opposite at the two poles suggests that there is a redistribution of heat going on between the hemispheres,” lead author Christo Buizert said in a statement. “We still don’t know what caused these past shifts, but understanding their timing gives us important clues about the underlying mechanisms.
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Colorado Bob
/ April 30, 2015Hundreds of methane gas flares found off coast of Gisborne
Some of the gas seeps discovered off Poverty Bay last year had been observed venting from the seabed in flares up to 250m high.
The discovery of this high concentration of gas flares in shallow water depths – 100m-300m – on an active tectonic subduction zone was unique, as gas seeps usually ocurred much deeper, at 600m to 1000m below the surface.
The team identified methane gas in the sediment and in the ocean, and vast areas of methane hydrates – ice-like frozen methane – below the seafloor.
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Colorado Bob
/ April 30, 2015April Heat Records Fall as Temperatures Soar in Japan, China, Korea
Wednesday brought an area of concentrated heat to the northern prefectures of Honshu, Japan’s main island. There were 32 all-time record April highs tied or broken in Akita, Iwate and Yamagata prefectures. Remarkably, the high temperature for all of Japan – including its far-flung subtropical islands well south of the mainland – was a toasty 31.6 degrees Celsius (88.9 degrees Fahrenheit) in Yokote city, Akita prefecture. That reading was also a new April record high for that location.
China, Korea Also Affected
The unusually hot weather moved in from the Asian mainland, where temperatures surged over the weekend in northern China, Mongolia and the Korean Peninsula.
The desert city of Turpan in northwest China measured a high of 40.5 degrees Celsius (104.9 degrees Fahrenheit) Sunday. This appeared to be the hottest location in China that day, and was Turpan’s hottest April reading in 15 years of publicly available weather data.
Parts of North Korea saw readings as high as 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) on Sunday. Meteo-France said the heat in China and North Korea set records for early-season heat.
http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/japan-record-april-heat-wave-china
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John
/ May 1, 2015Reblogged this on jpratt27.
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