Throughout the record global heat of 2016 and on into 2017, the world’s sea ice has taken a merciless pounding.
In the Northern Hemisphere, extreme warming of the polar region pushed Arctic sea ice extents to record low daily ranges throughout the winter, spring and fall of 2016. And even today, after many months of daily record lows, sea ice in the Arctic remains more reduced (in most measures) than it has ever been for this time of year.
On the other side of the world, the story is much the same. For it now appears that the ocean region around Antarctica is about to experience an all-time record annual low for sea ice:
(JAXA Antarctic sea ice measure for all years since 1978 shows a strong challenge to the previous record low for extent set in 1997 [lower left hand corner of the graph]. With 2-4 weeks left in the melt season, the present measure is just about 170,000 square kilometers above the 1997 record low during Southern Hemisphere summer.)
Anomalous warmth, though less intense than in the Arctic zone, did finally begin to invade the austral polar region during Southern Hemisphere spring and summer (2016-2017). And since mid October, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has remained in record low daily ranges (see lower red line on the graph above). Wednesday, February 1st’s, JAXA measure of 2.42 million square kilometers of sea ice extent remaining is now just about 170,000 square kilometers above the previous record low sea ice extent set during mid-to-late February of 1997.
During this time of year, average drops in sea ice extent are around 50,000 square kilometers per day. So if all things were equal, we’d expect melt inertia to push the measure into new record low ranges over the next 3-5 days. Unfortunately, there appears to be an added impetus for melting as another blast of above average temperatures is being drawn into Antarctica underneath strong ridging features in the Southern Hemisphere Jet stream.
(Warmth building into Antarctica over the next two weeks may be the final straw that tips the near ocean region into new all-time record lows for sea ice extent. The above GFS model prediction for February 9th rendered by Climate Reanalyzer shows temperature anomalies predicted for Antarctica and the surrounding regions. Red to orange is warmer than average, blue to purple is colder than average.)
As a result, over the next week, temperatures around Antarctica and in the nearby region of the Southern Ocean are expected to average between 1.2 and 1.8 C above the already warmer than normal 1979 through 2000 average. Meanwhile, parts of West Antarctica’s coastal zone are expected to hit as high as 5-20 C above that average.
With more warmth on the way, with measures already striking nearly half a million square kilometers below previous daily record lows, and with at least two weeks remaining in the melt season, it appears likely that we are in for a new all-time record low for sea ice extent in the ocean region surrounding Antarctica. If the new record does occur, it will happen during a time when the Arctic is also experiencing daily record lows for sea ice during Northern Hemisphere winter and as the world is experiencing global temperatures in the range of 1 to 1.2 degrees Celsius above 1880s averages.
Links:
robertscribbler 
climatehawk1
/ February 2, 2017Tweet scheduled.
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Brian
/ February 3, 2017You might want an arrow or a circle to help call out the low point; it’s a bit hard to see what you’re trying to demonstrate without taking a few moments to examine it. Thanks for the update.
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 3, 2017Brian if you click on the image it will show up better.
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lesliegraham1
/ February 3, 2017Can’t read much into this though surely? Just a couple of years ago the extent was at near record highs. I think I’ll wait and see what happens over the next decade or so before drawing any conclusions about the trend.
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Sammy
/ February 3, 2017True enough, but I don’t think the point is to draw a conclusion from a single situation or event. Rather, the point is to notice potentially catastrophic trends while there’s still time to prevent the worst.
History has shown more than once that turning a blind eye can be fatal and with something as important as the environment we depend on, it’s doubly important to be vigilant. A recent study has shown that just 2 degrees of ocean warming had a major impact on an Antarctic ice shelf in the past, despite cold air temperatures (https://eos.org/articles/deja-vu-ocean-warmth-melted-ancient-west-antarctic-ice-shelf).
If there are indicators things go in the wrong direction, should we not stay on the safe side and do all we can to prevent a potential point of no return? Whether or not climate change is man made or part of a natural cycle, there’s no doubt we can do a lot more to reduce our contribution (and personally I think we have a hell of a lot do with it).
Sitting back in the hope for the best is not the way to go, and I’m glad we have people like RS who make the effort to help raise awareness. We all should (e.g. in discussions with friends and colleagues).
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climatehawk1 (@climatehawk1)
/ February 3, 2017Scheduling tweet on this, thanks.
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017lesliegraham1
Here’s one conclusion , we’re seeing a swing from one extreme to the opposite.
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entropicman
/ February 3, 2017Chaotic behaviour? Perhaps a tipping point is coming up.
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 3, 2017Crazy warmth at both poles. There are two shots from Worldview in Antarctica that are both at about 2000 +/- metres elevation and 200 +/- kms inland that show melt on the down slope of exposed mountain tops. The first link is over looking the Riiser-Larsen Ice shelf and the second is looking over the Amery. These places are across the continent from each other and triangulate with the Ross. This anomaly is continent wide at this point. The melt here is happening stunningly fast. If this keeps up over the next few years it will be looking more like Greenland. A really f@#$ing big Greenland.
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&t=2017-02-02&z=3&v=-275817.66456041037,1654602.6948325734,-9833.664560410369,1826122.6948325734
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&t=2017-02-02&z=3&v=1679452.2580760876,403228.0383397024,1945436.2580760876,574748.0383397024
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Sammy
/ February 3, 2017Interesting – there also seems to be extensive melt along the coast and on the sea ice just north in the second picture, don’t know if this is to be expected though.
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labmonkey2
/ February 3, 2017Spotted link to this on Climate State – temperature stratification at work, with help from some angular momentum.
—
Many giant shelves of ice hanging off Antarctica into the Southern Ocean are now melting rapidly. But up to now, it has been a mystery why much of the resulting fresh water ends up in the depths instead of floating above saltier, denser ocean waters. Scientists working along one major ice shelf believe they have found the answer: earth’s rotation is pushing meltwater sideways as it bleeds off the ice, preventing it from reaching the surface. The finding has implications for how ocean circulation may affect the planet’s future climate. The research was published this week in the journal Nature.
—
http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2017/02/02/scientists-say-they-now-know-why-antarctic-meltwater-stays-below-ocean-surface/
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Jay M
/ February 3, 2017It almost seems like the CO2 + H2O are directly connected in the phase change of the H2O
speeding up, but the absorption of energy via green house probably accounts for much
One hopes for a slowdown somewhere
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wili
/ February 4, 2017I saw an scientific article a ways back that claimed that increased CO2 concentration actually does directly weaken ice structures, even aside from the less direct GHG/GW effect.
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wili
/ February 4, 2017Ah, here’s a article about the study with a link to the original: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/bad-news-chemistry-carbon-dioxide-makes-ice-weaker-69767723/
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Syd Bridges
/ February 3, 2017Thank you, Robert, for a very timely and informative post. Barring some extraordinary event, a new Antarctic low seems inevitable.
Even when the melt season ends, however, and the Antarctic sea ice starts to grow again, I expect that the warm water attack on the underneath of the ice shelves will continue. I don’t think it will be many years before the Antarctic will look in much worse shape than it does now.
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redskylite
/ February 3, 2017Thanks for the update on an extraordinary year, more interesting news from Mashable today bodes rough weather for the U.K and France:
Series of kick-ass storms roar across Atlantic towards UK
Interestingly, the weather pattern across the North Atlantic is having broader repercussions as well, with a series of freak warmups occurring in the Arctic, largely as a result of heat and moisture transported from the Atlantic side of the typically frozen region.
Sea ice cover has been lagging at record lows for much of the fall and winter, with another extreme warmup predicted next week, when temperatures may hit 50 degrees Fahrenheit above average near the North Pole.
http://mashable.com/2017/02/02/winter-storms-hit-western-europe-winds/?utm_cid=hp-r-1#LFZFT9jkisqF
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Jeremy in Wales
/ February 3, 2017There are a few storms rushing in, but in the UK the last two months have been very quite and subdued, so we are due some rougher weather.
Anecdote alert: I live 53 degrees north at an altitude of 500ft – in the early 1990s had regular snowfalls that would close roads and go regularly could go sledging at Easter on the hills round about – last two years one snowfall, a month ago, that your little finger could clear. Saying that it could change next week!
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climatehawk1 (@climatehawk1)
/ February 3, 2017Scheduling tweet on this, thanks.
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redskylite
/ February 3, 2017More and more meltwater is changing the dynamics at the poles and more research results released on it behavior in the Antarctic.
Scientists Say They Now Know Why Antarctic Meltwater Stays Below Ocean Surface
Many giant shelves of ice hanging off Antarctica into the Southern Ocean are now melting rapidly. But up to now, it has been a mystery why much of the resulting fresh water ends up in the depths instead of floating above saltier, denser ocean waters. Scientists working along one major ice shelf believe they have found the answer: earth’s rotation is pushing meltwater sideways as it bleeds off the ice, preventing it from reaching the surface. The finding has implications for how ocean circulation may affect the planet’s future climate. The research was published this week in the journal Nature.
http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2017/02/02/scientists-say-they-now-know-why-antarctic-meltwater-stays-below-ocean-surface/
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Donna Phillips
/ February 3, 2017Hi I live close to all this and it is a struggle to live with. I hope my nightmares are not too much like reality.
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 20173 FEBRUARY 2017 • 8:57AM
Supermarkets have taken to rationing vegetables after extreme weather in the Mediterranean caused supply shortages.
Shoppers have been venting their frustration on social media, sharing pictures of empty vegetable aisles during their trips to supermarkets.
Link
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wharf rat
/ February 3, 2017Now that we have water, the shortage is wonderful for my country, but bad for the climate.
“The problem has become so serious that British wholesalers have taken the unusual step of importing produce from California, despite the high cost of air freight.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4185686/No-three-lettuces-customer.html
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Jeremy in Wales
/ February 3, 2017Trouble is that everyone expects to be able to have any food all year round. Just because you can does not mean you should.
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climatehawk1 (@climatehawk1)
/ February 3, 2017Good point. One of the simplest actions to take on climate is to eat locally in-season foods whenever possible. We have a CSA (“community-supported agriculture”) share from a farm that is a few hundred yards from our home–farmer gets more money, up front before the season starts, and we get fresh vegetables through the summer and fall. Worth investigating if anyone has not tried.
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Josh
/ February 5, 2017Yes, and that is only really a pretty recent phenomenon too isn’t it?
At least in the UK we tend to have clear country-of-origin labels in major supermarkets these days which is useful to try to buy closer to home. But I do wish there were more hyper-local options; transporting stuff from one end of the country to the other isn’t really that great for sustainability either!
Of course ideally the stuff from all over the world wouldn’t be available, or would be available at a very high price premium. Shipping veg from california may be more expensive than getting it from Spain but I doubt the price premium does justice to the environmental impact (that is going to lead to more instances of food price hikes medium-long term…)
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wharf rat
/ February 4, 2017“wonderful for my country,”
BTW, that would be the Republic of California.
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017Global warming debate ignores facts
SANTA FE, N.M. — Five years ago, I hiked to the toe of the East Fork Glacier in Alaska’s Denali National Park. I was on my way to climb a small peak in the Alaska Range and had tracked down a photo taken in the 1920s by one of the park’s first geologists. Lining up the mountain skyline with the photo, I scrambled around until I found the exact spot where Stephen Capps stood to take the picture some 90 years earlier. The glacier had retreated nearly a mile since then.
I am an environmental philosopher, and have also worked as a glacial researcher, backcountry guide and naturalist. Seeing the dramatic disappearance of the East Fork Glacier was one of many intimate experiences I have had with a warming world.
Here’s a thought experiment: If I say that there are 10 M&Ms in a bowl and then I count the 10 M&Ms right before your eyes, you would have to “believe” me, right?
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Abel Adamski
/ February 3, 2017It is a good article.
And here is another, we face an insane mix of A Brave New World and 1984
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/feb/02/amusing-ourselves-to-death-neil-postman-trump-orwell-huxley
Over the last year, as the presidential campaign grew increasingly bizarre and Donald Trump took us places we had never been before, I saw a spike in media references to Amusing Ourselves to Death, a book written by my late father, Neil Postman, which anticipated back in 1985 so much about what has become of our current public discourse.
At Forbes, one contributor wrote that the book “may help explain the otherwise inexplicable”. CNN noted that Trump’s allegedly shocking “ascent would not have surprised Postman”. At ChristianPost.com, Richard D Land reflected on reading the book three decades ago and feeling “dumbfounded … by Postman’s prophetic insights into what was then America’s future and is now too often a painful description of America’s present”. Last month, a headline at Paste Magazine asked: “Did Neil Postman Predict the Rise of Trump and Fake News?”
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mulga mumblebrain
/ February 4, 2017Postman developed the sort of ideas that Huxley had made central to Brave New World. The totalitarianism not of active repression, but drug-induced stupour (junk-foods?)and relentless, brain-sapping ‘entertainment’ Brzezinski’s ‘tittietainment’ (tittilation plus entertainment. ‘Friendly fascism’, now growing less friendly.
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Genomik
/ February 4, 2017Its ironic that the drug SOMA was to a great extent made popular in SOMA or South of Market in San Francisco. Out of SF comes the beatnicks, Hippies LGBT and lots of ecstacy and more lately it was literally where the first internet companies and now google and Facebook are at. San Francisco is Brave New World and we create the techs that enslave us as well.
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lesliegraham1
/ February 3, 2017I notice climate reanalyser is projecting above freezing temperatures at the exact north pole for Thursday.
Above freezing in the pitch dark at the north pole in early February!
Not cool.
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017Commentary: Drought in Africa should sway deniers of climate change
Last month, I attended a conference at Kisumu, Kenya, a city of 250,000 people located on the shore of Lake Victoria. Because the conference was concerned with enhancing resilience to climate change, we visited an informal community on the outskirts of Kisumu to understand better the current vulnerabilities in their water and sanitation systems. There we met well-educated, knowledgeable and articulate residents and community leaders and discussed the potential impacts of climate change with them. They told us about the current threat to their water supply due to an overgrowth of vegetation in the nearby river caused by the high fertilizer content of downhill runoff from adjacent farms. Trees on the slope have been cut for fuel – in part, to boil water for drinking – which is making the problem worse. They are trying to replant trees on the slope to arrest the runoff and to contribute to drawing down atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.
It bears repeating: They want to help draw down atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. It broke my heart to know that these people who are struggling for health and well-being – really struggling for survival – have a will to contribute to this global problem that is in no way of their making. It contrasts strongly in my mind with the denial of facts that we often see in the U.S. at the highest levels of our government — and the reticence to clean up our own mess that impacts every living thing on the planet. It stirs my ever-growing concern that many of our country’s leaders do not make decisions based on reality.
Link
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mlparrish
/ February 3, 2017“It stirs my ever-growing concern that many of our country’s leaders do not make decisions based on reality.”
The farmers are worried about their drinking water. From today’s News and Observer:
“Congress votes to scrap coal rule
(Washington.) The Republican-controlled Senate on Thursday gave final approval to a measure scrapping an Obama-era regulation that would prevent coal mining debris from being dumped into streams.
The Senate’s 54-45 vote sends the resolution to President Donald Trump, who is elected to sign it. The vote came as the House considered an Obama administration rule on gun ownership. – Associated Press”
Beyond reality and reason. Along with DAPL and what not, they may irrevocably poison our drinking water supply before anyone gets around to stopping them. What would Washington, himself a farmer, have said?
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climatehawk1 (@climatehawk1)
/ February 3, 2017Scheduling tweet on this, thanks.
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mulga mumblebrain
/ February 4, 2017Rightwing anthropogenic climate destabilisation denialists would welcome drought in Africa.
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Abel Adamski
/ February 3, 2017Our pitiful sad case conservative imitation Government at it’s most brilliant
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/turnbull-wants-to-change-rules-to-use-clean-energy-fund-for-coal-projects-20170203-gu4oua
The Turnbull government wants the Clean Energy Finance Corporation to expand its brief to help subsidise next-generation coal-fired power stations to help them get off the ground.
As the energy sector continued to pour cold water on the idea of any new coal-fired power stations being built in Australia, Resources Minister and Queensland-based MP Matt Canavan said he would consider using the $5 billion Northern Australia Infrastructure Fund to help build new base-load power in North Queensland.
The CEFC – which former prime minister Tony Abbott tried to scrap before it was saved in a parliamentary deal with the Palmer United Party in 2014 – is used to provide financial support for renewable technologies such as wind, solar and soon to be for battery storage.
But it is understood a number of senior Turnbull ministers have asked the CEFC to expand its remit to look at clean-coal technologies. The Clean Energy Finance Corporation Act 2012 currently only rules out nuclear power and carbon capture and storage – an amendment added by the Greens.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance said the latest clean coal generation technology is the costliest form of new power generation.
BNEF analyst Leonard Quong said the levelised cost of new “ultra-supercritical” coal plant – the latest HELE technology – is $134-$203 per megawatt hour, or two to three times current prices in the National Electricity market.
Even if the government took on all the carbon, trading and construction risks to encourage the technology, the lower price that could be achieved would be $94/MWh.
This compares with $61-$118 per MWh for new wind plant, $78-140 for new solar plant and $74-90 for new gas plant. Levelised cost combines capital and operating costs, which vary from technology to technology, to come up with comparable cost estimates.
Butbutbut renewable energy is so terribly expensive and unreliable the sheep bleat in majestic chorus
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mulga mumblebrain
/ February 4, 2017I’d back our Murdoch-inspired regime death-cultists and denialists against any such psychotics anywhere on Earth, and the presstitutes of our MSM as the equal of any subservient, cowardly and obsequious panderers to power anywhere in the ‘Fake Stream Media’. That is the ones outside the active and increasingly frenetic (and successful)denialism of the Murdoch cancer. You know-the poseurs who claim to know better.
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Cate
/ February 3, 2017https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/02/01/beyond-the-extreme-scientists-marvel-at-increasingly-non-natural-arctic-warmth
2016 was the warmest year on record in the Arctic, and 2017 has picked up right where it left off. “Arctic extreme (relative) warmth continues,” Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with WeatherBell Analytics, tweeted on Wednesday, referring to January’s temperatures…..
“[A]fter studying the Arctic and its climate for three and a half decades, I have concluded that what has happened over the last year goes beyond even the extreme,” wrote Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., in an essay for Earth magazine…..
What happens next in the Arctic is anyone’s guess. But Penn State’s Titley, who said we are “headed into a new unknown” is concerned: “Science is still trying to figure out the details. We do know that 2017 will almost certainly start with the weakest, thinnest, smallest arctic ice pack in recorded history. So we are one step closer to living with an ice-free arctic in the summer, and probably sooner than we think.”
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 3, 2017Cate I would argue that it is natural, in so far as Gaia is doing what it has done before to get to equilibrium in the face of the forcing that it is presented with. The forcing is not natural. The models are wrong. Possibly we don’t have the level of comprehension to build the correct models. If we took a region and modelled the weather backwards for a year day by day I expect when we ran the model from day one back it would get day 370 wrong. Things are happening now that fifteen years ago weren’t supposed to show up till next century. Antarctica wasn’t going to show signs of trouble for a couple of centuries at least. The models show a complete lack of intuition. They are, after all, just models and not A.I. I believe Wasdell has a point when he says that when the model timing is off they just back the model up till it lines up with what is observed. Than let the thing run forward with the same speed of change. The little personal glimpses you get from the interviews from the Alley’s, Anderson’s, Hansen’s, White’s, and the like are more about the intuitive view. Things are desperate but they can’t produce a model to prove it. RCP 8.5? that’s already in the rearview if you read between the lines and the out comes from it are not 100 years away. Now back to the task at hand we have to start somewhere:
Tesla drops ‘Motors’ from name in bid for clean energy supremacy
Elon Musk is now at sweet spot of 3 big trillion-dollar energy ‘tsunamis’ that team Trump hopes to stop
Tesla Motors, the Silicon Valley start-up that jumpstarted the global electric vehicle (EV) revolution, is no more. Now that CEO Elon Musk has finished the acquisition of SolarCity for a $2 billion stock swap, the new company will simply be Tesla Inc.
Musk has positioned Tesla in the sweet spot of three emerging trillion-dollar industries—electric vehicles, solar power, and battery storage. If you count the race towards fully autonomous vehicles, which EVs are likely to dominate, Tesla hits four major growth sectors.
https://thinkprogress.org/tesla-without-motors-ecc64486d532#.4u3pei81e
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mulga mumblebrain
/ February 4, 2017Shawn, the latest study of climate sensitivity to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas levels, which doubled the estimate of global temperatures rise for a doubling of pre-Industrial greenhouse gas concentrations, admitted that climate scientists had erred by calculating the measure previously from the evidence of temperatures rises when coming out of a glaciation. Calculating from the recent Holocene climate regime as the starting-point gave the new, believable, and catastrophic estimates.
I have seen similar excuses made concerning the great under-estimations of the rapidity of de-glaciation in West Antarctica. If the next IPCC Report does not correct this chronic under-estimation of the very great severity of the threats, then I believe we can and must strongly suspect that the entire IPCC Report process has been massively corrupted.
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 5, 2017MM even though the sensitivity level has been changed it seems the only adjustment that shows up is the level of warming at the other end of the century time scale. 4c instead of 2c. It still doesn’t explain the increases in change we are experiencing here and now at 1.3c. The sea level rise changes that are showing up aren’t coming out of the models, they are simply doing the “here and now” math. X number of cubic metres of ice melt, times X number of years, equals X metres of SLR, next century! It would seem the modellers have their heads up their own asses and they like the view. Standing here looking around my own relatively quiet corner of the globe I’m inclined to think it may well be the better view.
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mulga mumblebrain
/ February 5, 2017Shawn, I seem to recall reading of a glaciologist who stated that the mistake they had made in regard to West Antarctica was to calculate future changes on the basis of previous ice-field behaviour, not the actually existing conditions and behaviour now in the new climate regime of the end 20th century, dawn of the 21st (and last, according to Martin Rees, among others). I worked in health for years, and there it was only thought a good idea about twenty years ago, to rely on ‘evidence-based’ methods. The science community is bedeviled by hierarchical behaviour, institutional inertia and corruption by moneyed interests, and in regard the ACD, they have let us down dramatically. Of course the incessant abuse and intimidation from the Right has plainly had an effect, too.
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017Texas bill would shield Exxon from potential suit over climate change
Concerned about what he calls the “overcriminalization” of society, an East Texas lawmaker has drafted a bill that would protect one potential defendant not conventionally considered a marginalized victim of injustice: Exxon Mobil.
State Rep. James White, R-Hillister, has proposed barring a defendant’s theories on climate change from being used as evidence in a fraud or deceptive practice case.
Link
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climatehawk1 (@climatehawk1)
/ February 3, 2017Love it. ‘Overcriminalization’ seems like a coinage truly worthy of Orwell.
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Jay M
/ February 4, 2017de-criminalization of criminal activity by the over class, of course
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mulga mumblebrain
/ February 4, 2017And, don’t forget-only the glorious West enjoys the ‘Rule of Law’.
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John Allen
/ February 5, 2017Actually the ultra-wealthy ruling class enjoys the ‘rule of law’. (They can afford it) The rest of us and Earth are subject to the whims of corporatist that will do anything to keep their practices of killing everything that stands in their way. So unless there is a concerted effort by concern people in the US the poisoning practices will continue. The Ol’ Hippy.
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017Fish migrating to unusual regions due to global warming: AU study
Sightings of fish outside their usual regions could be a sign of marine species shifting in response to climate change, an Australian study has found.
The study, lead by Hannah Fogarty from the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS) and the University of Tasmania (UTAS), revealed that initial reports of fish in unaccustomed waters are often a sign of impending species-wide change.
Fogarty compiled a list of verified first sightings from around the world and compared it with long-term data on warming oceans and found a correlation between the early stages of a species range shift and climate change.
Link
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Cate
/ February 3, 2017Over at the ASIF, the 2016-2017 Freezing Season is still topping the charts, but Neven has also drawn attention to the Albedo Warming Potential thread, which discusses attempts to quantify additional warming from polar ice-cover loss.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1749.0.html
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Cate
/ February 3, 2017RS, here is Tamino today on seasonal cycles in sea ice.
I understand none of this but his last paragraph:
“What do all these changes signify? I really don’t know; I’m not a sea ice expert and I don’t have a strong intuition about it. Except for one thing: the overall decline is because of global warming. Global warming is because of humans burning fossil fuels. And the changes we’re seeing, so pronounced in the Arctic, are going to mean trouble. We should slow down our carbon emissions, and stop them altogether, as soon as is practical.”
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Suzanne
/ February 3, 2017The Real News: “Doomsday Clock Ticking on Climate Change” January 30th, 2017
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mulga mumblebrain
/ February 4, 2017In reality the clock should show half past midnight, but they don’t want to panic the proles.
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 4, 2017MM it will be more realistic when they move it to daylight savings time!
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017Sweden pledges to cut all greenhouse gas emissions by 2045
Climate minister urges European Union to take lead on climate change as fears Donald Trump will pull out of Paris Agreement
Link
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Hatrack
/ February 3, 2017Another excellent article! Cross-posted to Democratic Underground. Thanks again!
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017LikeLike
Suzanne
/ February 3, 2017At the Hill…”House Votes to Overturn Obama Drilling Rule”
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/317739-house-votes-to-overturn-obama-oil-and-gas-rule
The House on Friday passed a resolution to reverse a pollution rule for oil and natural gas drillers that was put in place by the Obama administration.
Members voted 221-191 to approve a Congressional Review Act resolution against the Bureau of Land Management’s methane venting and flaring rule. If approved by the Senate and signed by President Trump, the rule would come off the books for good.
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017This was Russia’s Arctic weather in 2016
«These kind of temperatures have never before been registered in the region», the country’s Hydrometeorological Center says.
The year 2016 became the warmest on the northern hemisphere on record, and temperatures in the Arctic were by far the most extreme, the research center says in a sum-up of the year.
Among the most extreme examples is the Island of Vize, the land located north of Novaya Zemlya, where average temperatures in January was 17 degrees Celsius above normal for the month.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-ecology/2017/02/was-russias-arctic-weather-2016
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climatehawk1 (@climatehawk1)
/ February 3, 2017Scheduling tweet on this, thanks.
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Suzanne
/ February 3, 2017“March for Science” on April 22, 2017…in Washington and all over the nation:
https://www.marchforscience.com/
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 3, 2017The Holm-Ludzow bay looks to be open all the way to open ocean in todays Worldview. A bit of cloud cover so I can’t say for sure 100%. If you start at the Amery and scroll along the coast all the way along past the Totten you can see that most of the fast ice is pretty much breaking apart as well as some decaying of the ice shelves. In front of the Amery there is the chance the wind will close off the opening with the fast ice that’s letting go towards Cape Ann. As for the rest of the ice mentioned the wind directions are favourable for moving anything loose off shore. As for the Shirase and Holm-Ludzow we may have a better look tomorrow. Here is todays view:
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&t=2017-02-03&z=3&v=1316483.032113385,1670577.7855671027,1582467.032113385,1842097.7855671027
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017LikeLike
coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017Atmospheric CO2 keeps climbing
http://folk.uio.no/roberan/t/MLO_weekly.shtml
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Suzanne
/ February 3, 2017Another frightening chart. Between this one and the ones showing the disappearance of Arctic and Antarctic Ice…wow.
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Sammy
/ February 5, 2017It strikes it home that current GHG reducing measures are nowhere near enough.
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 3, 2017Can you tell a good story?
‘Numbers numb, stories sell’: The key messaging lesson from Trump’s win
Why scientists and progressives must embrace narrative in their messages and marches.
https://thinkprogress.org/numbers-numb-stories-sell-the-key-messaging-lesson-from-trump-s-win-c1bff0a79bea#.u41gvsgcf
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climatehawk1 (@climatehawk1)
/ February 3, 2017Funny, all depends on who you are. I am a numbers guy, and firmly believe that if you don’t understand numbers, you don’t really understand anything. But sadly, I agree it’s clear many, many people aren’t like that.
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mulga mumblebrain
/ February 4, 2017Numbers numb numb-skulls. Soothing stories lull them to sleep-the Big Sleep.
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Sammy
/ February 5, 2017They face a difficult task, how to make inconvenient complexity palatable to those who rate short-term personal advantage above the long-term well-being of our planet…
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017Terra/MODIS
2017/033
02/02/2017
12:25 UTC
South Georgia (Island)
A really amazing pass over the island.
Link
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 4, 2017CB that’s a great shot. Looks like a lot of fresh water pouring off as well.
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017Climate Science Denial Shifts to a New Tactic Among Trump Appointees
By: Jeff Masters , 5:29 PM GMT on February 03, 2017
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3551#commenttop
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mlparrish
/ February 3, 2017Here is today’s APOD showing airglow. Google ‘airglow images’. It is hard not to think of Peter Ward’s ‘Under a Green Sky’.
https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/
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Christina MacPherson
/ February 3, 2017Reblogged this on nuclear-news.
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Cate
/ February 3, 2017The sun has returned to Jakobshavn!
And 2017/02/02 offers a beautiful clear view of the pack ice headed down the Labrador coast. According to the Canadian ice service, it’s 90% to 100% coverage in the ice-infested area, but the vast majority is classified as “thin first year ice”, so once it hits warmer waters it will melt out fast.
These will be harp sea whelping grounds in another few weeks.
http://www.arctic.io/explorer/4Xa5A//4-N90-E0
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Cate
/ February 3, 2017Canadian Ice Service daily reports here:
http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=D32C361E-1&grp=Guest&mn=&lang=en
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017Mayans Have Farmed The Same Way For Millennia. Climate Change Means They Can’t
Dionisio Yam Moo stands about four-and-a-half-feet tall, and his skin is weathered from years in the tropical sun. A “proudly Mayan” farmer, he grows corn, beans and vegetables on a six-hectare farm in Mexico’s Yucatán peninsula. The farm is surrounded by dense tropical forest, and crops grow amid fruit trees in thin soil, with the peninsula’s limestone bedrock protruding in places.
Yam Moo farms using a traditional, rainfed practice called milpa, which has long involved cutting and burning patches of forest, planting crops for a few years, then letting the worn-out land regenerate for up to 30 years, before cultivating it again. Milpa has enabled generations of farmers like Yam Moo overcome the Yucatán’s poor, thin soil and grow a stunningly diverse set of crops — multiple varieties of beans, squash, chili peppers, leafy greens, root vegetables, spices and corn, the plant at the heart of Mayan identity.
http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2017/02/03/510272265/mayans-have-farmed-the-same-way-for-millennia-climate-change-means-they-cant
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climatehawk1 (@climatehawk1)
/ February 3, 2017Scheduling tweet on this, thanks.
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Exposing the Big Game
/ February 3, 2017Reblogged this on Exposing the Big Game.
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017LikeLike
coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017http://safr.kingfeatures.com/idn/cnfeed/zone/js/content.php?file=aHR0cDovL3NhZnIua2luZ2ZlYXR1cmVzLmNvbS9BcmN0aWNDaXJjbGUvMjAxNS8xMC9BcmN0aWMuMjAxNTEwMDlfOTAwLmdpZg==
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esuttor
/ February 4, 2017Brilliant! thanks for this, may work if I have to be around any climate deniers
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Sammy
/ February 5, 2017Excellent, thanks for my first laugh of the day. It reminded me of the old “two volt four watt” joke (could only find one fb cartoon, takes a moment for the pic to load https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=773218749406284&set=p.773218749406284&type=3&theater)
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017LikeLike
coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017Today is my mother’s birthday , today is the day Waylon Jennings gave up his seat on the BeechCraft because the Big Bopper had the flue.
I do not suffer fools easily , and I never will.
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017LikeLike
coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017The End of the World.
At age nine i was introduced to this. That nobody so bright , so great , could be snuffed out so fast. At the time our powers that be called him . “That nigger lover on a motorcycle”.
Both were taboo.
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coloradobob
/ February 3, 2017One more thought from Lubbock –
The End of the World.
At age nine I was introduced to this. That nobody so bright , so great , could be snuffed out so fast. At the time our powers that be called him . “That nigger lover on a motorcycle”.
This is why I ran off to the woods. His home town hated him. Later they saw his money making power.
Now we loved him always
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017Money, money , mummy.
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017Organization, Presence: Adaptive Management in the Trump Administration
By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 10:00 PM GMT on February 03, 2017
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/comment.html?entrynum=378#comment_0
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John McCormick
/ February 4, 2017Robert,
if it is worth anything to your readers,I am absolutely despondent. There is no time left and the crazy the party has won. He joined them to his crusade against grovernment. We are being governed by crearationists.
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017John McCormick
I have spent my whole life as a dark / light thinker , When I saw all those those women on the 21st.
I changed . We are not going lay down like dogs. Just like when 4 kids walked into that lunch counter in Greensboro.
Guts and brains, you have brains . The guts are coming.
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entropicman
/ February 4, 2017John McCormick
Don’t give up.
Europe, India and China are now taking the lead on emission reduction.
The USA only produces 16% of global CO2 emissions. You are going to fall behind the rest of us for a while, but we can afford to wait four years until you get your act together again.
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Suzanne
/ February 4, 2017John,
The best way to fight despondency is ACTION. I went up to D.C for the Women’s March…it was invigorating. Today, I will be with what is expected to be 1,000 + people to protest the Lunatic’s Mar-A-Lago. This is all that is keeping me from curling up into the fetal position. Take action…call the Capitol..daily. Raise your voice. Trust me…it does help.
the Indivisible Guide website has local chapters all over the nation popping up..Go to their website and put in your zip. Find other like minded people and join the RESISTANCE.
https://www.indivisibleguide.com/groups-nav
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wharf rat
/ February 4, 2017Thanks, Suze.
At the moment, Rat is the tokin’ male in our local Women’s Action Group, altho there were a lot of guys who showed up at our town march. I just told the group about the Earth Day/Science March.
I’m not sure where I’m going with this, but I’m thinking about how to get them
to crowdfund an EV for one of our public agencies; school district, water district, volunteer fire dept, and/or clinic. We buy them an EV, they send an ICE to the junkyard. First I have to convince the ladies that it’s a good way to flip off Trumputin. The carbon bubble is my hook..
Trump, Putin and the Pipelines to Nowhere
You can’t understand what Trump’s doing to America without understanding the “Carbon Bubble”
…No One Cares More about the Carbon Bubble than Putin
Trump’s ties to Russian espionage suddenly make more sense in this light.
If you were going to ask why a country like Russia would risk a war to interfere with American politics, look at what the Russian economy is.
Russia is a petrostate. It’s the number one gas exporter and number two oil exporter in the world, but its economy is otherwise stagnant and out-of-date. Those oil and gas assets are controlled by a small number of oligarchs gathered around Putin, the former head of the KGB. Those oligarchs may be the one group of investors who stands to lose the most from the popping of the Carbon Bubble.
https://thenearlynow.com/trump-putin-and-the-pipelines-to-nowhere-742d745ce8fd#.mh5ynsu51
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climatehawk1 (@climatehawk1)
/ February 7, 2017What’s more, action works. Check it out: http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/2/6/14473482/resistance-works-anti-trump-protests
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Jay M
/ February 4, 2017Interesting reverse U curve over AK: what can we expect? Just a guess, but is it a big high pressure system?
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.WORLD-CED.WS250-SNOWC-TOPO
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017John McCormick
I once drank my self to homelessness . ( It’s longest word in English).
Human beings never give up , they never lay down.
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wharf rat
/ February 4, 2017J Alternative Facts @JournalAltFacts Jan 26
Preview of our 1st issue: Scientistonce, I.A. (2017). We Have All the Best Climates, Really, They’re Great. #JournalOfAlternativeFacts 1(1).
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017homelessness
I had lost everything , I was an animal. That was over 30 years ago. I wanted to die.
Human beings never give up , they never lay down.
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017Ever
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017God bless my mother , and Buddy Holly.
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017Human beings never give up , they never lay down.
Please read Greek history.
Long before you were born, a hand full of very brave men changed the world. Against very long odds.
We don’t speak Persian , and the Bible was in Greek.
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017If they had failed …………… No Bible . No West , No us.
It’s called the battle of Actium. If they had failed, no “She’s Real Fine My 409”
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017The odds were as long as human history as ever seen . You didn’t “lose” , they killed you, and sold your wife and children into slavery.
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017Now we sell our future into slavery.
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Vic
/ February 4, 2017Piles of dead turtle hatchlings are lining Queensland’s famous Mon Repos beach amid a heatwave which has pushed the sand’s temperature to a record 75 degrees Celsius.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-04/mon-repos-turtles-hurting-in-heatwave-qld/8230036
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 201775 degrees Celsius = 167 degrees Fahrenheit
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017This is something we never dreamed of , The babies fry on the beach.
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017During the campaign, Williams publicly made a joke likening the crime of rape to bad weather, having stated: “If it’s inevitable, just relax and enjoy it” (the statement had previously caused controversy amongst women’s groups over the same statement by basketball coach Bob Knight, and caused WABC-TV weatherman Tex Antoine to be fired after making the same comment on a weather report that followed a news report about a child rape).[5] Also, during the campaign, allegations were made that as an undergraduate at Texas A&M, Williams had visited the Chicken Ranch, a brothel in La Grange, Texas, and Boy’s Town, a Mexican red-light district near the border.[6][7] As a result of his reported comments, Williams was occasionally parodied, such as in the mock political ad, “Satan Williams,” which appeared on Dallas/Fort Worth public television during the 1990 campaign season.[8]
We got Ann Richards,
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017Rape in the wing mind –
“If it’s inevitable, just relax and enjoy it”
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017Get up Stand up .
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017If our best minds lay down and enjoy it, or worse lay down and quit,
Well get ready little lady .
Hell is coming to breakfast.
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Vic
/ February 4, 2017The third heatwave in two months has hit salad growers in Queensland’s south hard, with many farmers battling to harvest 30 per cent of their crop.
Farmer Clem Hodgman said he has been losing about 50,000 lettuces and 25,000 cauliflowers a week at his property near Toowoomba.
“The temperatures are so high, crops are burning off in the fields.”
He said while prices were rising in supermarkets, farmers would not reap the benefit as energy and water costs rose accordingly.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-03/top-temp-records-tumble-darling-downs-heat-stroke-dog-death/8239080
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Suzanne
/ February 4, 2017Thanks for the link. This really got my attention:
But Rachel Mackenzie from farm lobby group Growcom said the heat could be the new norm.
She said an industry study into heat impacts on the salad industry did not predict such high temperatures for another 13 years.
“We were looking at 2030 in terms of when some of these thresholds would be reached,” she said.
_________________________________
This^^^ is what I am seeing more and more in articles. People observing now what wasn’t expected for several more decades.
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 4, 2017The models are simply wrong.They are not intuitive and we as informed observers have to start preparing those around us for the coming changes. I have been half heartedly looking over aquaponics for the past couple of years. This year I’m going to start to gather up the necessary components for a small operation. Some warm water species of fish may be best, as keeping water temps up will likely be easier than cooling.
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 4, 2017I your unfamiliar with aquaponics here is a short 9 minute video that shows a simple off grid system.
http://theurbanfarmingguys.com/diy-solar-aquaponics-ibc
Nothing fancy and there is a fair bit of the process not in the video, but it gives a quick look at the simplicity. Your running an aquarium so water chemistry is a big part of it. The jist of it is the nutrients for the plants are produced by the fish. Depending on the fish species you can grow duckweed in another tank in the loop for fish food. Ive seen some really small systems using medium sized exotic fish aquariums in apartments growing a small assortment of greens for the kitchen. This can be a closed loop system. Much easier to control pollution and produce high quality food in one motion.
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 4, 2017Should read ” This is a closed system.”
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Sammy
/ February 5, 2017What happens if the energy supply breaks down, can it still function?
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 5, 2017Sammy if your set up off grid you are the energy supply. When I built my first off grid home my insurance company asked the same question. Only a couple of years after suffering through a week plus of no power due to a severe blizzard. That home, now into its eleventh year has never suffered a power failure. However the same cannot be said for the surrounding grid. No insurance claims at that address.
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Genomik
/ February 4, 2017From the Trump: Make China Great Again dept. China will have a carbon tax in 2017 and we wont! That puts us at a disadvantage against China. Thanks Emperor Trump!
https://climatecrocks.com/2017/02/01/dan-kammen-on-trump-tillerson-and-carbon-taxes/
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017Two great salad bowls are failing on opposite sides of the Earth. Each for their own reason. One for wild wet storms. the other for relentless heat.
It reminds me of our own salad bowl. All running at the extremes.
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017As the system nears a tipping point, it swings to the extremes.
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017There it tends to get stuck , before wildly swinging to opposite pole.
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Cate
/ February 4, 2017Salad bowls: UK chains are importing produce from California because of the crop failures in Spain. That air freight is gonna jack up the price of lettuce in Tesco!
Food shortages, skyrocketing prices. Just as predicted. No surprises. We have seen this coming for decades.
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coloradobob
/ February 4, 2017Try farming that.
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Bill H
/ February 4, 2017From NIck Stokes’ blog: January 2017 has highest ever global temperature anomaly outside the 2015/16 el Nino:
IF any of you want an early preview of global temperature anomalies, prior to NASA et al. releasing their figures then go to https://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk , where Nick publishes his own datasets, which track the institutional sets very closely.
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 4, 2017Good shot of the Amery today. It looks like someone has airbrushed the periphery with blue. Two shots, first todays and than one year ago today:
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&t=2017-02-04&z=3&v=1615665.613398049,513584.40624878055,2147633.613398049,868400.4062487805
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&t=2016-02-04&z=3&v=1615665.613398049,513584.40624878055,2147633.613398049,868400.4062487805
The shot I’m anxiously awaiting for the Shirase isn’t up yet. A disaster is very exciting! How black are my thoughts?
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 4, 2017Okay here it is. It hasn’t quite opened. However on the left side of the lead there are some big cracks showing, and the ice shelf on the left is in pretty poor shape. The surface wind right now is light and blowing from left to right. In four days time it’s forecast to strengthen to 50+kms and change direction to come more from the south, blowing any loose or weak ice out to sea. The Totten is experiencing the same signs of weakness and the winds have been and are going to continue blowing the loose ice out to sea. The melt season, like the great symphonies, looks like it is leading up to a rousing finish that will have us one and all on our feet!
ahttps://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&t=2017-02-04&z=3&v=1325178.2677438268,1687386.113484263,1591162.2677438268,1858906.113484263
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 4, 2017Damn, one to many letters in the link. This should be it.
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&t=2017-02-04&z=3&v=1328413.432516181,1696386.852343345,1594397.432516181,1867906.852343345
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Suzanne
/ February 4, 2017Disturbing.
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 4, 2017Haha your other left stupid. The light wind blowing from “left to right” should be right to left. What a moroon.
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Cate
/ February 4, 2017haha Shawn. Whew. I thought it was me.
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Bill H
/ February 4, 2017With record ice lows in the arctic here is the latest on record low Arctic Sea Ice volume, from Wipneus’ blog.
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/grf/piomas-trnd4.png?attredirects=0
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 4, 2017And up and up, rinse, repeat.
http://www.climatecodered.org/2017/02/record-busting-heat-in-eastern.html
And now a new report from another US agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has recommended a revised worst-case sea-level rise rise scenario of 2.5 metres by 2100, half a metre higher than their previous assessment. The upper limit for sea-level rise now set at 5.5 metres by 2150 and 9.7 metres by 2200. It says sea level science has “advanced significantly over the last few years, especially (for) land-based ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica under global warming, and the correspondingly larger range of possible 21st century rise in sea level than previously thought”.
In Greenland, for example, the ice sheet is melting 600 per cent faster than predicted.
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Suzanne
/ February 4, 2017They have to just stop with this 2100 nonsense. What is happening..is abrupt climate change..and the negative effects are NOW….not in 2100. People see 2100…and they just shrug. What is going on in Arctic, Antarctica…and now the “heat” in Australia…is NOW..and should be headline news on every channel. The world is literally melting before our eyes…and it is still not covered like the 911 Event that it is. Just shameful.
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Suzanne
/ February 4, 2017“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” — Albert Allen Bartlett, Professor of Physics, University of Colorado at Boulder (1923-2013).
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Dave Person
/ February 7, 2017Hi Suzanne,
That is a great quote and very true. I urge you to read Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking Fast and Slow” if you haven’t already.
dave
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mulga mumblebrain
/ February 6, 2017Yes, the 2100 garbage is simply a form of denialism. In essence, for 99% of the current human race, it means ‘never’. Right here, right now, the climate destabilisation, in its extent and rapidity, is truly terrifying, and I think that the proles are finally waking up. In response the fake-stream media has either ramped up the denialism (and attacks on renewable energy)is ignoring the problem, or produces pabulum that grotesquely downplays the extremity of our situation.
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Greyson Smythe
/ February 4, 2017RNN/Naked Capitalism: Greenland Ice Sheet Melting 600 Percent Faster Than Predicted by Current Models
Video link and transcript at the link.
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Cate
/ February 4, 2017Adaptation: is this to be the go-forward focus now? It’s happening, there’s nothing we can do about it, so we’d better get used to it?
http://mashable.com/2017/02/03/trump-epa-climate-website-changes
Website changes at the EPA have raised eyebrows. “Scientists have said that taking action on global warming requires both climate mitigation, which refers to actions that prevent further global warming, as well as adaptation. The possibility that the EPA will get out of the mitigation game strikes some environmental policy experts as a major change.”
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Cate
/ February 4, 2017Another adaptation story: communities in Canada’s north meet with govt to formulate plans for adapting to climate change.
Not that northerners have any choice but to adapt, of course, being on the front line of climate change, with ice loss, permafrost thaw, seasonal shift, etc etc., already starting to bite hard into traditional Arctic culture.
“This is the last in a series of pan-Northern meetings. The plan is to take all the information and come up with a united strategy that could help direct future investment on everything from where to build homes to how to improve food security.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/iqaluit-meeting-climate-change-adaptation-1.3960824
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Whachamacallit
/ February 4, 2017While some adaptation will be required, I find the Atlantic Council’s analysis on that solution telling: “…an adaption-centric strategy basically means that policymakers would be willing to tolerate a foe that keeps getting stronger over time” and “, there is no question that societies will have to adapt to a changing climate. Yet, at some point, climate change’s impacts might begin to overwhelm all efforts at adaptation.”
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Suzanne
/ February 4, 2017At Phys.org “Renewables can’t deliver Paris Climate Goals”
https://phys.org/news/2017-01-renewables-paris-climate-goals.html#jCp
Expansion of renewable energy cannot by itself stave off catastrophic climate change, scientists warned Monday.
Even if solar and wind capacity continues to grow at breakneck speed, it will not be fast enough to cap global warming under two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), the target set down in the landmark 2015 Paris climate treaty, they reported in the journal Nature Climate Change.
“The rapid deployment of wind, solar and electric cars gives some hope,” lead author Glen Peters, a researcher at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo, Norway, told AFP.
“But at this stage, these technologies are not really displacing the growth in fossil fuels or conventional transportation.
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Sheri
/ February 4, 2017SEsonal winter with rain typical of an El Nino has congined in Phoenix unti this week. Arizonas lakes and watersheds have gotten a lot of water this past 2 to 3 months. That is thengoodnews. Our tempsgo up to just about 80 next Friday, Feb 10. Out winter may be over a few weeks early as it did in 2016. We will see what short spring and very long summer bring.
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June
/ February 5, 2017I felt a little better after reading this article about the City of Seattle divesting from Wells Fargo over the DAPL. $3 billion account. Our actions do matter.
“What just happened in Seattle is about to spark a nationwide movement in America’s largest cities ”
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/king-seattle-wells-fargo-boycott-catch-u-s-article-1.2963625
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Suzanne
/ February 5, 2017Off topic….but some good news.
Just got home from a Anti-Trump rally in WPB…where 3,000 people of every age, shape and color showed up to say NO to Tyrant Trump. It was grand! This is what Democracy looks like…
We must continue our RESISTANCE through ACTION. It is the only way to defeat the fascist regime…and to fight against depression.
So many I spoke to tonight…want to have a March against the Lunatic EVERY TIME he shows up in Palm Beach….. I SAY……SIGN ME UP!!
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Ryan in New England
/ February 5, 2017Awesome Suzanne! Keep it up 🙂 We cannot let up one bit, or start acting like Trump is normal.
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Jeremy in Wales
/ February 5, 2017Trumps Putin America first & Theresa the Appeaser has her trade deal
(sorry could not help it)
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 5, 2017This is way O/T but I have to ask. Does anyone find the timing of leaks like this suspicious? It would seem that this would only serve to fragment society even more. Your going to question the sincerity of co-organizors unless you’ve known them since grade school. It will get harder and harder to trust anyone. This seems to play to the favour of the gamers (1%ers) not the resistance. It would appear that there was some pressure for Obama to pardon Snownden at the end of his term but he didn’t. Better this way, you can now slip out directives like this one as a Wikileaks problem and blame some disgruntled individual. All the while using the leaks as a strategic manoeuvre to keep the packs divided and fighting amongst themselves. At this point distraction is an effective offence. All though Obama did pardon that turkey at Thanksgiving. Distraction?
One category of investigation outlined by the DIOG is the “Assessment,” created in December 2008, which codifies warrantless stalking. Assessments do not need the authorization of a court, nor do they need to be based on any evidence—“particular factual predication” in the manual’s bureaucratic jargon—let alone the suspicion of any wrongdoing. Certain types of assessments may be “proactively” initiated by individual agents on their own. Most other assessments need only the rubber stamp of a supervisor, the Special Agent in Charge (SAC) of the field office, in order to proceed.
An FBI agent may request from an Assistant Special Agent in Charge (ASAC) the deployment of a mobile surveillance team—including armed teams—to physically stalk the subject of an assessment, including (but not limited to) journalists, religious figures, elected officials, potential informants, and individuals who are not the subject of any investigation. The manual’s 2011 revision removed the restriction of only one surveillance team per assessment.
Agents may also request authorization to aerially surveil the land around a target’s home, including with thermal imaging cameras. The manual asserts that people’s yards “do not enjoy Fourth Amendment protection from aircraft-mounted surveillance” and thus do not require search warrants authorized by a judge. In assessments related to counterterrorism, the “best practices” outlined in the FBI’s Counterterrorism Policy Guide directs agents to cross-reference the agency’s databases and other systems with information such as the subject’s phone numbers.
http://www.uncommonthought.com/mtblog/archives/2017/02/04/fbi-secret-manuals-allow-for-warrantless-stalking-of-journalists.php#more-22261
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 5, 2017While this is an interesting turn of opinion, what I find most interesting is how the financial crystal ball clairvoyants are starting to jump ship. Must be starting to look more rewarding financially on the other side? I say we eat them first.
https://thinkprogress.org/once-cautious-climate-economist-warns-against-the-cost-of-trump-era-inaction-c19ff36ff964#.3j859luqs
Nordhaus disagrees now. He calculates the social cost of carbon (SCC) at $31 per ton of CO2 (almost twice his 2013 estimate). If that were a carbon tax, it would add about $0.30 to a gallon of gasoline. Nordhaus notes that is slightly lower than the SCC the U.S. government’s Interagency Working Group (IAWG) on Social Cost of Carbon came up with in 2015 — which, of course team Trump has conveniently scrubbed from the White House website.
But Nordhaus discounts future damages by much more than the IAWG. So if he used the same discount rate (3 percent), his SCC “would be roughly twice that of the IAWG” and in 2020 his SCC would be $87 a ton.
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mulga mumblebrain
/ February 6, 2017Relying on capitalist ‘market mechanisms’ would definitely be the final coup de grace. Capitalism only ever deals in profit maximisation, and everything else, including combating terminal climate destabilisation will come second ie nowhere. Carbon trading in particular, will be the usual farrago of manipulation, profit-gouging and outright fraud.
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Ailsa
/ February 5, 2017New post on Arctic Sea Ice Blog:
“Things just keep getting worse. After this year’s trend line went well below all others last month, I was hoping January would bring some relief, some cold weather. The weather was cold, colder than November and December, but evidently not cold enough for some seriously anomalous ice accretion. And so the gap has widened.”
http://neven1.typepad.com/
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Ailsa
/ February 5, 2017“2017 is currently 1571 km3 below the previous record lowest number for January 31st, which occurred in 2013 (the year following record smashing 2012). That’s almost 10% lower.”
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Suzanne
/ February 5, 2017Thanks for the link. With these horrendous numbers in the Arctic…Neven sure isn’t getting much of a break.
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 5, 2017So O/T it isn’t funny, but neither is the topic, so just the link.
http://www.uncommonthought.com/mtblog/archives/2017/02/05/radiation-levels-are-soaring-inside-the-damaged-fukushima-nuclear-plant.php#more-22269
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coloradobob
/ February 5, 2017The ‘hoax” continues –
Sydney’s 40-plus summer of sweat: The record scorchers continue
WELCOME to the city of sweat. Sydney’s summer of stinkingly-uncomfortable heat and humidity has continued with temperatures topping 40C as other parts of NSW also swelter.
With a warm-up of the hottest January on record behind it, the city steamed into the first Sunday of February with temperatures topping 40C in several areas by 3pm.
Sydneysiders, fresh from the hottest January on record, are again set to swelter with the brief respite of cooler days and nights set to end on Saturday. Several areas of Sydney had topped 40C At Bankstown at 1.45pm it was 42.7C, at Sydney Olympic Park, and Penrith is was 42.3C, and Camden, Canterbury, Horsley Park and Badgerys Creek Creek has all topped 41C.
Link
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coloradobob
/ February 5, 2017Sunday, February 5, 2017
On the Mail on Sunday article on Karl et al., 2015
There is an “interesting” piece (use of quotes intentional) in the Mail on Sunday today around the Karl et al., 2015 Science paper.
There are a couple of relevant pieces arising from Victor Venema and Zeke Hausfather already available which cover most of the science aspects and are worth a read. I’m adding some thoughts because I worked for three and a bit years in the NOAA group responsible in the build-up to the Karl et al. paper (although I had left prior to that paper’s preparation and publication). I have been involved in and am a co-author upon all relevant underlying papers to Karl et al., 2015.
The ‘whistle blower’ is John Bates who was not involved in any aspect of the work. NOAA’s process is very stove-piped such that beyond seminars there is little dissemination of information across groups. John Bates never participated in any of the numerous technical meetings on the land or marine data I have participated in at NOAA NCEI either in person or remotely. This shows in his reputed (I am taking the journalist at their word that these are directly attributable quotes) mis-representation of the processes that actually occured. In some cases these mis-representations are publically verifiable.
http://icarus-maynooth.blogspot.com.au/2017/02/on-mail-on-sunday-article-on-karl-et-al.html
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humanistruth
/ February 5, 2017There’s evidence Trump is setting up for a coup d’état. Here’s my take on this week old news.
http://atheistnexus.org/forum/topics/set-up-for-coup-d-tat
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coloradobob
/ February 5, 2017“Solar growth is so extensive and has so much momentum behind it that we’re at the point where you can’t put the genie back in the bottle,” said Jeffrey R.S. Brownson, a Pennsylvania State University professor who studies solar adoption. “You either learn how to work with this new medium, solar energy, or you’re going to face increasing conflicts.”
The transition away from coal-burning power plants now seems unstoppable, even if Trump scraps rules requiring utilities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The average lifetime cost for utility-scale wind and solar generation in the U.S. is now cheaper than coal or nuclear and comparable to natural gas, according to financial advisory firm Lazard, which compared the fuel costs without their federal tax subsidies.
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-02-sun-trump-sides-coal-fossil.html#jCp
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coloradobob
/ February 5, 2017Smog chokes coal-addicted Poland
The soupy grey smog shrouding Polish cities this winter is one of the most visible symptoms of the EU member’s addiction to coal, a deadly habit forcing many to stay indoors or don masks before venturing out.
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-02-smog-coal-addicted-poland.html#jCp
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Ailsa
/ February 5, 2017Coal lobby’s long game puts talking points into leaders’ mouths.
Climate science denier and veteran lobbyist Fred Palmer is proud of getting Australia to adopt the sector’s arguments on climate and poverty
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2017/feb/03/coal-lobbys-long-game-puts-talking-points-into-leaders-mouths
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Cate
/ February 5, 2017Newfoundlanders get a heads-up from a marine scientist quoting NOAA on revised projections of sea-level rise. The vast majority of the population of the island lives within sight/smell/a stone’s throw of the sea. Public infrastructure and private property will be affected.
“…..water levels will rise between one to eight feet around the world on average, however eastern Canada including Newfoundland is expected to see a higher than average rise…
The change in expected sea rise is connected to new evidence related to the instability of the Greenland and Antarctic ice shelves, which were previously thought to be stable.
“What we’ve been learning very recently is that these ice shelves are collapsing from the inside out. That means that the ocean is hollowing them out from underneath, the ocean that is warming,” he said.
“The smoking gun that we’ve been looking for — lots of melt water, billions of cubic metres of melt water, in fact — hasn’t been there, and so we were tricked into believing that nothing was happening, while all this time the ocean was eating away at these ice shelves.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/sea-level-rise-means-complete-rethinking-1.3967588
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 6, 2017Cate, Boris Worm was interviewed here on our CBC afternoon show. The one thing he said that made me shake my head when the following question was asked:
Q: Was this report a revelation for you?
“I have to say I didn’t see this coming and I think most people haven’t seen this coming. People are realizing that a lot of the Antarctic ice shelf is unstable now … and it really affects our daily lives here.
We really have to face that reality … the highest emission scenario is that 25-fold increase in floods will be realized by 2030 — that’s 13 years away.
Under the lowest, most aggressive greenhouse gas reduction scheme it will be 2080. So not in my lifetime but certainly within our children’s’ lifetime.
We can buy ourselves 50 years to prepare for that one foot sea level rise and then hopefully cap the total magnitude by doing the right thing now.”
I didn’t see this coming? Really? So what is your focus at the university? He’s a marine biologist so I’m guessing it must be clams. Anybody paying attention ( those of us who have spend four or more decades on the coast) already see major year over year changes. He goes on to say that if we were to stop burning FF now it would slow the SLR by 50 years. So the CO2 already out there and the heat in the ocean will go away now. This is critical thinking at our universities? Makes me want to taser the guy. The radio interview can be heard here:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/programs/mainstreetns/noaa-s-worst-case-scenario-8-2-feet-of-sea-level-rise-by-2100-1.3960642
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Cate
/ February 6, 2017Shawn, fair enough, but I do give him credit for speaking out on a topic that is still met with Trumpian levels of disbelief and ridicule here in NL. How do our neighbours in NS respond to reports of SLR, in general?
It was also interesting to see this story on CBC’s “province” page for NL, instead of buried away in the Science or Business sections. Maybe the CBC itself is starting to wake up.
As for Dr Worm himself, here’s FB commenter Kelly Ann:
Kelly Ann: “Boris Worm is an amazing scientist. I’ve probably read close to every paper he’s published. I follow all his studies. Makes me super proud to be Canadian. If he’s saying something like that, I have to think he’s probably right because he’s nothing short of a genius when it comes to anything to do with the ocean.”
😉
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 6, 2017For the most part Cate, “SLR?” That said the ones that earn their living on the ocean are noticing changes in levels and in particular the number and height of surges. There is a discussion coming this weekend at my local library about the coming SLR. Hosted by Transition Bay and the Ecology Action Centre based in Halifax. “Kelly Schnare will be presenting an interactive workshop with Sierra Club of Canada Atlantic’s Re-imagining Atlantic Harbours in 2050, (RAH2050.org) which aims to inspire and identify with our waters for the next generation. Story sharing using the ‘Swim Drink Fish’ program called #mywatermark will engage participants to document their coastal experiences.” I will be attending, come hell or high water, so I may be pleasantly surprised by the level of awareness. I hope. So far however, the only ones that really notice the changes are those that have been here longer than a few decades and not even all of them. Attention to detail in the natural world is no longer a strong suit for us in the western world. More on the up coming workshop:
http://www.transitionbay.ca/event/your-compassionate-coastline-sea-level-rise-in-st-margarets-bay-what-we-can-do/
As for Dr. Worm I sure his academic record is more than sound, but he is Biology Professor not a Glaciologist. His focus is fish stock health and welfare not SLR. If you check his publications you won’t find anything outside fish populations and harvesting practices. Its the old adage I don’t go the optometrist to have my colon checked.
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Cate
/ February 6, 2017Shawn, thanks for that link, I’ll be sharing that on my FB. Agreed 100% on the optometrist, btw, but generally speaking, maybe it’s a good thing when all scientists, not just climate specialists, start sounding the alarm. Will be interested to hear your take on the library discussion.
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Ailsa
/ February 6, 2017French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron enjoins uneasy US scientists: ‘Move to France’
The former economy minister, one of the frontrunners in the upcoming presidential election, urged US-based scientists working on climate change, renewable energy and health issues who were wary of the new political situation to seek refuge across the Atlantic.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/04/emmanuel-macron-enjoins-uneasy-us-scientists-move-to-france
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Cate
/ February 6, 2017“We should assume our worst fears will be realised…..”
—Dr Stefan Rahmstorf on Trump’s environmental intentions.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/we-should-assume-our-worst-fears-will-be-realised-climate-scientist-on-donald-trump-20170202-gu4f3k.html
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017Crib notes: China’s solar PV capacity doubled in 2016
China’s installed capacity of solar PV doubled in 2016, according to a National Energy Administration report out on Saturday.
The country now boasts over 77 gigawatts of installed solar PV, up from 34 at the end of 2015.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/02/05/crib-notes-chinas-solar-pv-capacity-doubled-in-2016/
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017Meet the Four Republican Lawmakers Who Want to Abolish the EPA
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/meet-4-republican-lawmakers-who-want-abolish-epa-n717061
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Suzanne
/ February 6, 2017Republicans won’t be happy until our water and air looks like Beijing. They truly don’t give a damn about “life” …unless it is someone’s uterus. Otherwise…not so much.
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017Translation: “Low Niklas in the North Atlantic, intense cyclogenesis, very low pressure at 931 hPa.
All-time record for this area is about 913 hPa on Jan 10, 1993.”
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Cate
/ February 6, 2017A fist aimed right at the Arctic.
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017It’s the small things that adapt to climate change first –
Crop-destroying armyworms on the march through Africa and will hit Asia soon, scientists say
While armyworm mainly affects maize, it has also been recorded eating more than 100 different plant species, causing major damage to crops such as rice and sugarcane as well as cabbage, beet and soybeans.
Link
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017This Is How The Ice Sheets Of Antarctica Formed Very Rapidly About 34 Million Years Ago
Two competing theories attempt to explain how the continent was formed. The first theory lies on the idea of a global climate change. The level of atmospheric carbon dioxide dropped steadily since the start of the Cenozoic Era 66 million years ago, and once the gas dropped below a critical threshold, the cooler temperatures allowed the formation of Antarctica’s ice sheets.
The second theory, which is about the dramatic changes in ocean circulation patterns, posits that when the Drake Passage that lies between Antarctica and the southern tip of South America deepened dramatically, the phenomenon set off a complete reorganization of the ocean circulation.
– See more at: Link
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Cate
/ February 6, 2017SLR is here and now in Miami.
http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2017/02/flooding-is-the-new-normal-in-miami/
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Cate
/ February 6, 201780 cm of snow and counting in Vancouver—and not their first storm this winter, snow on a mountain in the UAE causing traffic jams because so many want to make snowballs, and this bear on a frozen lake in Greece. Polar outbreaks all over.
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DJ
/ February 6, 2017Snow, but not cold. Relatively heavy snow in Calgary (February’s normally cold but dry) but really not that cold. TV and radio stations making a big deal out of the ‘cold’ but it’s only -20C, 20 years ago or less, it would be -35C for a few weeks every year. Nothing below -28C this year, and that overnight.
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Cate
/ February 6, 2017As most Canadians understand very well, snow is not a real-cold-weather phenomenon. Too cold means too dry for snow, which is why the Arctic, historically, has some of the lowest snowfalls in the country. Here in Newfoundland, we routinely break snowfall records for the country, yet our climate is quite mild compared to central or western Canada. If it’s milder than it used to be on the prairies, the increase in snowfall makes perfect sense. And of course, the atmosphere is carrying way more moisture than it used to, thanks to GHG.
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Suzanne
/ February 6, 2017At the Guardian…”Australia’s Chief Scientist Compares Trump to Stalin over Climate Censorship:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/feb/06/australias-chief-scientist-compares-trump-to-stalin-over-climate-censorship
Australia’s chief scientist has slammed Donald Trump’s attempt to censor environmental data, saying the US president’s behaviour was comparable to the manipulation of science by the Soviet Union.
Speaking at a scientific roundtable in Canberra on Monday, Alan Finkel warned science was “literally under attack” in the United States and urged his colleagues to keep giving “frank and fearless” advice despite the political opposition.
“The Trump administration has mandated that scientific data published by the United States Environmental Protection Agency from last week going forward has to undergo review by political appointees before that data can be published on the EPA website or elsewhere,” he said.
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017Cyclone risks rise as NT cops drenching
There’s a moderate chance a tropical cyclone could hit the Northern Territory this week with the wet season on track to be one of the wettest on record.
This season’s rainfall total is already ahead of the 2011 record as heavy monsoonal rains isolate communities and force school closures.
Darwin and surrounding rural areas copped up to 300mm of rain on Saturday, and the deluge is expected to persist over the next seven days.
Bureau of Meteorology Senior Forecaster Graeme King says there’s a 20 to 50 per cent chance a cyclone will lash the northern region on Thursday.
Link
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 6, 2017Something is amiss!
January CO2
January 2017: 406.07 ppm
January 2016: 402.64 ppm
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017LikeLike
Erik Frederiksen
/ February 6, 2017Here is Richard Alley, the glaciologist who the MIT atmospheric physicist Kerry Emanuel described as the world’s foremost expert on the relationship of ice and climate, discussing recent ice sheet model results in 2016.
At Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, “once you get off of the stabilizing sill, whenever that is in West Antarctica, the time scale of getting rid of the West Antarctic [3.3m GMSLR, 4m in the Northern Hemisphere], it’s not centuries, it’s multi-decadal. This is not maybe the best case, it’s not the worst case.”
At 31:40 in this recommended presentation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a7MNA44RMNA
And when might Thwaites get off its stabilizing sill?
From the NY Times recently: ”When I asked Richard Alley, almost certainly the most respected glaciologist in the United States, whether he would be surprised to see Thwaites collapse in his lifetime, he drew a breath. Alley is 58. ‘‘Up until very recently, I would have said, ‘Yes, I’d be surprised,’ ’’ he told me. ‘‘Right now, I’m not sure. I’m still cautiously optimistic that in my life, Thwaites has got enough stability on the ridge where it now sits that I will die before it does. But I’m not confident about that for my kids. And if someday I have grandkids, I’m not at all confident for them.’’
The thing is that’s West Antarctica alone. You’d also have thermal expansion, mountain glaciers and Greenland. A more distant problem is the much larger EAIS.
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wili
/ February 6, 2017Thanks, Erik. Those are very important Alley quotes. Can’t be repeated enough, as far as I’m concerned.
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Erik Frederiksen
/ February 6, 2017You’re very welcome. Uncertainty about the time scales of ice sheet retreat are not our friend. Alley once described ice sheet retreat as a retreating army, moving quickly from hilltop to hilltop and then pausing. They can apparently collapse abruptly and Thwaites is right now hanging onto underseas mountains by its fingernails.
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017http://www.woksat.info/etczb06/zb06-1504-f-ic-w.html
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017Massive hurricane-force Atlantic storm to push abnormally mild air toward North Pole
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/02/06/massive-hurricane-force-atlantic-storm-to-push-abnormally-mild-air-towards-north-pole/?utm_term=.9b6198a531db
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017The textbook comma-shape storm is sprawling. The northern part of its core is near the southern tip of Greenland, while its trailing front extends southwestward almost to the tropics. On Sunday, the National Weather Service said it packed winds of over 90 mph (80 knots) near its center. Computer models suggest the storm has generated towering waves that exceed 46 feet southeast of its core.
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017On Thursday, areas near the North Pole are predicted to be 50 to 60 degrees warmer than normal (which is around minus-30), which is near the melting point. This may mark the third occasion since November and the fourth time in just over a year that temperatures have warmed to this uncommon winter level near the Pole.
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Suzanne
/ February 6, 2017Impressive looking storm. More ice destruction..I am sure. I just don’t know how any new ice is going to form this winter with this continued “beating” the Arctic is taking.
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Suzanne
/ February 6, 2017At NY Times….”In Age of Trump, Scientists Show Signs of a Political Pulse”
Michael Eisen, an evolutionary biologist, is among the elite of American scientists, with a tenured position at the University of California, Berkeley, and generous funding from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute for his research on fruit flies.
But late last month, dismayed over the Trump administration’s apparent disdain for evidence on climate change and other issues, Dr. Eisen registered the Twitter handle @SenatorPhD and declared his intention to run in the 2018 election for a seat in the United States Senate from California. His campaign slogan: “Liberty, Equality, Reality.”
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017There’s a serial killer at work at the top of the world , murdering sea ice in it’s bed.
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017Another fresh article about poster boy “Niklas” and its onslaught on the Artic (with pics and maps):
For third time this winter, the North Pole will warm to near melting point
By Andrew Freedman, 15 minutes ago
An extraordinarily powerful storm system is spinning across the North Atlantic Ocean, just southeast of Greenland. Together with long-term climate change and other transitory weather systems, it is setting the stage for a dramatic and unusual warmup at the North Pole this week.
For the third time this winter, such a storm is likely to vault unusually warm air toward the pole, potentially bringing temperatures across the sunless Arctic to near the melting point for a brief period late this week. …
http://mashable.com/2017/02/06/storm-will-warm-north-pole-melting-point/#WvCJWDLB1aqc
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 6, 2017The serial killer is at work on both ends Bob,using the weapons we’ve provided. Here’s a good shot of the Shirase today. The fast ice in front of it is in really bad shape.
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&t=2017-02-06&z=3&v=1343186.1382606488,1712730.1170374614,1476178.1382606488,1798490.1170374614
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Ailsa
/ February 6, 2017Excellent bit of light relief, if you haven’t seen this… I loved it!
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Suzanne
/ February 6, 2017One of the funniest SNL skits! I have watched it several times..because it is just so good. We all need a laugh during these “dark times”..and boy oh boy Melissa McCarthy and SNL delivered !!
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Ailsa
/ February 6, 2017I reckon she should do a regular spot, like Alec Baldwin’s Trump.
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wili
/ February 8, 2017Some sources are now saying that Trump is dropping Spicer as Communications Director (though still keeping him on a Press Sec), at least in part because the SNL skit made him ‘look weak.’ Now people are talking about getting Rosie O’Donnel to impersonate Bannon–hey, however we can get rid of or demote these menaces to society…whatever works.
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umbrios27
/ February 6, 2017Not trully climate change, but the small things will thrive on more than the heat.
In november of 2015, a rejects dam of the mining corporation Samarco (a joint venture of Vale & BHP Billiton) broke, causing a flood of argilous mud that destroyed cities and forests and plantations and the whole river Doce. The flood of mud, was caused by criminous finantial decisions: the dam should have been built as planned and licensed, but it was built in a far cheaper way, because, hey, what could go wrong, right? There are far to few government fiscals in Minas Gerais and they have far too little power: problems at the dam were reported in 2013, but, hey, if Samarco had to halt temporarily its mining, or repair its dam, that would hit the local economy. No one wants to hit the economy, right?
The flood of mud (that began in 2015) has not stopped yet. River Doce´s ecossystem is dead… or…
Well, as predicted by biologists in 2015, not completly. No fish swim the River Doce anymore, crustaceans, birds, mammals, all of these disappeared. But there´s some small things that love those predator free, still and mudied waters. Mosquitos. River Doce is a mosquito paradise since the end of 2015. It was summer then, and the mosquitos had a great time, but then autumn and winter came, and their numbers dwindled a little. And now its summer again, and the ecossystem is overwhelmed with mosquitos…
And their carry ons. Yellow Fever has been endemic in Brasil since collonial times brought from Africa alongside Aedes aegypt and the chained slaves. Urban yellow fever was erradicated by Oswaldo Cruz in 1904, with compulsory vacination and mosquito prevention, measures that sparked revolts but saved countless lifes. But yellow fever adapted to native mosquitos and never left the forests of Brasil completly.
With the new mosquito boom in River Doce, Yellow Fever showed its face again. It was predicted: biologists recommended extra vacination around the River Doce area to prevent an epidemics. No one listened. Then, as the 2016 summer came, the deaths started to pile on. There´s been 57 confirmed human deaths so far, and there are vacine shortages, even with the local labs upping their production.
But the saddest part aren´t the humans. Humans are somewhat adapted to this virus, we have a fighting chance of survival and the number of confirmed human cases is more than ten times greater than the deaths. But the monkeys… they don´t have hospitals, and their immune systems have no chance against this human virus. They die so fast (3 days with luck, more than 90% letality in this virus, 100% letality depending on the species) that they don´t even become reservoirs for the virus.
And that area was a center of monkey endemism, with four endangered species (howler monkeys, titi monkeys, buffy-headed marmosets and murichis), some of them with just a few hundred live animals, in the epicentre of the epidemics. The murichis, specially, are one of the last two populations of their species, and it´s lucky that they haven´t been hit until now, but biologists are discussing what to do, and wheter trying vacinnation would be wise (no murichi tested vacines).
Monkey populations are being heavily impacted, and the epidemics is starting to grow outside the River Doce´s area (I´m thinking about updating my yellow fever vacine as I live in an area with howler monkeys, titi monkeys and buffy-headed marmosets as close neighboors. But since I´m outside the main epidemic area, I´m going to wait a month or two, as the priority must be for the people in Minas Gerais to get their vacinnes right now). The epidemic will probably wane around April, but it may ressurge next summer. At least, now, a vaccination effort is being made and people are lining up to be vaccined.
Article below in Portuguese: http://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/saude/a-febre-que-silencia-as-florestas-20873202
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 6, 2017I can’t put into words how this cuts me up. We the people should be able to go to world court and force these companies to cover all costs period even if all assets have to sold off to do it. Clean up, restoration, medical and anything else that can be connected to this and any carnage caused. They kill more than they create. But we can’t, the laws are for them not us.
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Ailsa
/ February 6, 2017Absolutely heartbreaking
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umbrios27
/ February 6, 2017Samarco was held responsible, and was condemned to pay about 20 billion reais (about 5,7 billion dollars) to restore what it destroyed. But it´s already skipping payments and being allowed to do so (http://noticias.ne10.uol.com.br/brasil/noticia/2017/01/28/justica-suspende-obrigacao-de-samarco-e-vale-depositarem-r-12-bi-659259.php ), so, unfortunatelly, you´re right 😦 Worst yet is to see news in Brasil, crying about how the stalling of Samarco´s business is damaging the economy, a surreal thing to hear when it hasn´t even stopped doing damage to the river and society yet.
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Suzanne
/ February 6, 2017Just heartbreaking and devastating. Shameful what a destructive species we are and how selfish.
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017umbrios27 / February 6, 2017
Once again you shine a light into rooms we “nortinos” never knew about, we are all in debt every time you share your world with us.
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umbrios27
/ February 6, 2017I´m just paying a bit of my debt, for all the wisdow you all give here 🙂
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climatehawk1 (@climatehawk1)
/ February 7, 2017+1
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017Lest we forget …………….
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017Here’s the Google Image search page River Doce
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017LikeLike
Shawn Redmond
/ February 6, 2017Wow CB can you say Union Carbide?
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umbrios27
/ February 6, 2017River Doce once was a clear water river. I´m going to try to post a few before/after images:
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umbrios27
/ February 6, 2017Another one:
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Shawn Redmond
/ February 6, 2017The corporate concern will never go away. But not in any morale sense. This in Bhopal, source Wikipedia:
A release of an email cache related to intelligence research organisation Stratfor was leaked by WikiLeaks on 27 February 2012.[103] It revealed that Dow Chemical had engaged Stratfor to spy on the public and personal lives of activists involved in the Bhopal disaster, including the Yes Men. E-mails to Dow representatives from hired security analysts list the YouTube videos liked, Twitter and Facebook posts made and the public appearances of these activists.[104] Stratfor released a statement condemning the revelation by Wikileaks while neither confirming nor denying the accuracy of the reports, and would only state that it had acted within the bounds of the law. Dow Chemical also refrained to comment on the matter.[105]
Ingrid Eckerman, a member of the International Medical Commission on Bhopal, has been denied a visa to visit India.[106]
WITHIN THE BOUNDS OF THE LAW!!!! The “accident” happened in 1984.
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017umbrios27 /
I posted your entire comment @ Cat 6 ……….. I got this reply almost as soon as it the web –
Search Results for “samarco” (8 articles)
The official report into the Samarco Tailings Dam failure in Brazil
Remarkable new footage of the mudflow from the Samarco tailings dam failure in Brazil
The Samarco dam failure – an intriguing video
Etc, etc…….
http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/?s=samarco&submit.x=15&submit.y=2&mswhere=blog
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coloradobob
/ February 6, 2017LikeLike
coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017Hell comes to breakfast.
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umbrios27
/ February 7, 2017Yes, it did. 😦
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Ailsa
/ February 6, 2017Don’t know if this will work…
Sea Ice Extent Change
image posted at ASIF 2016/2017 Freezing Season thread comment #2601
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Ailsa
/ February 6, 2017Looks like it did..!
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017Hints for images ……….
Look for these tags at the end of the link ………
jpg, png, and gif You are good.
Then look for the https, at the front , drop the S , this S makes all the difference/ you can have a jpg at the end but that S at the front is not what you want. That S is the difference between a hot link and a image.
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Ailsa
/ February 7, 2017Thanks CB
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017Hell comes to breakfast
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017This S thing doesn’t always work . let’s try the whole link
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 201740 years ago Steve Bare gave interview to Mother Earth News .
Bottom line, ” Our desendents will curse us for burning this wonderful module in low grade heat engines”
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017Bottom line, ” Our desendents will curse us for burning this wonderful module in low grade heat engines”
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017Carbon Chains –
We just burn this from A to B , It’s most amazing thing we have ever cracked. To blow it out our tail pipes in 21 st century is a sin.
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017Here’s just some of the carbon chains , your entire world depends on this –
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017It’s just a trace gas .
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017To make it all into fuel is a fools folly, When burn it, it’s gone fore ever . When make something from it , it’s ours . Take a bleach bottle . That thing can be a bed spread.
40 years ago Steve Bare gave interview to Mother Earth News .
Bottom line, ” Our desendents will curse us for burning this wonderful module in low grade heat engines”
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017I am sorry I am an old fool . But I am not stupid old fool.
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017a
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017We’ll need something soon .
It’s really a bitch when leadership goes lays down.
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017I haven to post music ,
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017Ok here it is ………………..
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017LikeLike
coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017It”s a Bitter Sweet Symphony
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017We have no idea of our deep trouble.
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017When into Facebook tonight. Lady .. She still rules the roost. None of them has ever heard of the a river in Brazil.
Our question , how do we her on our side,
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umbrios27
/ February 7, 2017The greatest shock of this came in 2015, Bob. The immediate help needed, shelter for those that lost their homes, water for cities that suddenly had none… that already happened, and fortunally, it was ok. We lost 22 lifes on the day of that dam rupture, but there could have been much more… there was a teacher that heard the rumbling of the mud and got all the students of her class, and her school, to safety in high ground. Though no one of the Samarco managers alerted the neighboring vilages, some of the grunt workers did call, and people got in the streets, calling everyone to go to highground. There where volunteers that captured fish and crustaceans and all kinds of wildlife in the delta of Rio Doce before the mud flood, to transfer to aquariums and aquiculture lakes and wherever they could (they even discovered a new species of catfish while doing that), TAMAR project at Linhares had a overflow of volunteers, rescuing baby turtles (it was breeding season for them) before the mud came. Water-trucks that had been used in São Paulo, bringing water from Minas to here during the drought crisis in 2014, went to Minas with clean water.
The immediate shock, and immediate need for help already went. It kind of worked. But the scar left, River Doce now a zombie river… that will take a while to heal, if ever. Former fishers and hotel managers and everyone who depended on the river for their lifes are looking for new jobs (at least they´re receiving a meager montly indemnification by Samarco, but there was quite a fight to get the enterprise to pay for it).
And the long run results of this, like the Yellow Fever epidemic, are showing their faces slowly. But there are vaccines, people are getting in line to be vaccined (to the point that there are local vaccine shortages, but labs are upping their production), and biologists are trying to protect the monkey populations. I just hope we don´t lose species over this epidemic.
This is not the first time a river is killed by a badly made mineration dam. The Tisza disaster in Romenia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Baia_Mare_cyanide_spill ) was even worst. Here, there was just mud, there was cyanide. But that´s why regulations should be strict and enforced, to avoid this kind of disaster (we even had strict regulations, they just weren´t being enforced. There were just 6 inspectors in Minas Gerais, to fiscalize more than 3000 mining operations. Now finally, they received resources and new people, but a bit to late… ). All of us do use mining products, after all. And lots of mining operations don´t go this terrible way. But mining, like everything, needs to follow regulations.
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Ailsa
/ February 7, 2017And please don’t take any justifiable anger out on the easiest target (kick the nearest dog, muck some woman about)…
This is a difficult piece of music to accept, so watch with caution. I post it because I think it tells a very important message. Thank you, and remember the Women’s March.
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umbrios27
/ February 8, 2017Thanks, Ailsa. I´m human and sometimes explode with anger like everyone else, but I try my best to always direct my anger to those who´ve caused it, and not bystanders.
That´s actually personally a big responsabilty, because I´m a policewoman… I do carry a gun, so I always need to remember NOT to use it. It has worked, thus far, in my 12 years in the police, I´ve only had to draw the gun twice, and I´ve never had to shoot. I hope to keep these numbers like this until I have to retire.
I´m sorry I can´t see videos in this computer I´m on, but I´ve searched the lyrics of the music. The message is important, true. Myself, I´ve always used a personal motto: “No man is allowed to pay my bills except for my father”. In the police force, specially here in Brasil, where there are 10 men in the police to every 1 woman, I´ve been forced to state that motto aloud a few times, to make things clear. In the police, it has always worked, comunicating clearly where the boundaries are.
If it doesn´t work, there´s a second motto that also helps, and is true as long as one believes it. “I´m the most dangerous in this room”. For the few times the first motto has failed me, the second has always delivered.
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017The Tears of Brazil
I have fears I have tears
I hear crying from Brazil
I see death I see loss
I see a red river of loss
I see nothing to help
I see your on your own.
I see what a sad world
What a spent world we are.
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017We are in so much deep shit blows my mind,
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017There is one reason I bang away at this crap , Because DTL would here. If I wasn’t.
It killed him . And it will kill me. But it hasn’t killed me yet.
I have the bit in my gums.
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017We are bigger than we think, we just need to knit ourselves together.
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017A lone in a world with out DTL.
“Going up the Country” – Canned Heat / WOODSTOCK ’69
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017LikeLike
coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017LikeLike
coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017The Telecaster ……………
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017Sorry bad link
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017oK a bug in my links.
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coloradobob
/ February 7, 2017LikeLike
Suzanne
/ February 7, 2017Front page at NY Times this morning….
A rapidly advancing crack in Antarctica’s fourth-largest
ice shelf has scientists concerned that it is getting
close to a full break. The rift has accelerated this
year in an area already vulnerable to warming
temperatures. Since December, the crack has grown
by the length of about five football fields each day.
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Erik Frederiksen
/ February 7, 2017Thanks. The Larsen C is on the peninsula, so it means little for sea level rise as there’s little ice there, but there are other ice shelves on Antarctica holding back around 23m of sea level rise worth of ice which is grounded below sea level and subject to Marine Ice Sheet Instability.
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robertscribbler
/ February 8, 2017It’s another canary. But one that represents about 5 cm of SLR. So a bit more than A and B, but really just another shot across the bow.
Worth noting that 10 and 5 year rates of SLR are now in the range of 4 and 5 mm per year respectively. The present La Nina did little to flatten the rate of increase.
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Erik Frederiksen
/ February 8, 2017If you plot SLR rates over the last 150 years it looks like the beginning of a nasty non-linear climb. Here’s a graph of post-glacial sea level rise and the part around Meltwater-Pulse 1A gives food for thought.
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robertscribbler
/ February 8, 2017Excellent article by the Times. Looks like there’s a bit more information out RE the location of the compression arch. So good bit here. Rignot’s statements are, as usual, quite compelling.
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Spike
/ February 7, 2017You guys noticing this?
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Uncle B
/ February 7, 2017I’m in Central Ohio and there are flies and gnats all over the place. It’s Feb. 7th…
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Ailsa
/ February 7, 2017The speaker of the UK House of Commons stands against Trump.
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robertscribbler
/ February 8, 2017Nice to see Parliment standing up against Trump. Really amazing the level of opposition both here and abroad. It’s refreshing, really.
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Robert In New Orleans
/ February 8, 2017Nothing like a little deep dish extreme weather for dinner:
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Greg
/ February 8, 2017And this. Do not do this kind of filming at home kids. Early and effective warnings saved lives.
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Greg
/ February 8, 2017Pay attention to the White House reaction:
James A Baker III and other Republican elder statesmen propose a free-market plan for fighting climate change.
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