Hands down, no other electrical vehicle company possesses the charging infrastructure, the high quality electrical vehicles, and the production infrastructure that’s now in Tesla’s hands. This system synergy provides unparalleled value to Tesla customers. Enabling them to use and improve their electrical vehicles with far greater ease than offerings from other automakers.
So when one reads about rising sales of the Chevy Bolt or how Volkswagen plans to sell 100,000 EVs per year by 2020 (Tesla sells that many now, in 2017), one should realize that both of these companies, though presently producing or planning to produce high-quality EVs, are behind in a race to catch Tesla. The Bolt, which sells for around 36,000 dollars hasn’t even yet caught up with the Tesla Model S — which costs more than twice as much. And Volkswagen is still waiting for its signature EV brands to be built over the next two years.
(Tesla deposits are an indicator of customer interest. Model 3 has been a primary driver of deposit increases since openings for reservations began in Q1 of 2016. Image source: Bloomberg.)
Struggles by Tesla to hit a rapid Model 3 production ramp, however, have caused some to question whether the revolutionary EV manufacturer and renewable energy company would hold on to that lead. Whether the delay would allow others to start to catch up. And of course some of this conjecture was puffed up by traditional Tesla bears and opponents — grasping at any bad news to spin against a rising green energy giant.
To be very clear, Tesla is at least 1-2 years ahead of the competition. So a month or two or three delay for the Model 3 production ramp — a vehicle which more than half a million customers have reserved — is not going to knock it out of its present leadership status. Longer term problems — lasting for more than 6 months — would be more telling, especially if reservation holders began to drift away. But Tesla’s present advantage is so significant at this time that the production fail on the Model 3 would have to be pretty monumental to provide any serious opening for the competition.
(Model 3 starting to break out of the pack. The vehicle is now the #21 best selling EV for all of 2017 and probably #11-12 for November. If the production ramp continues, the car will easily break the top 10 in December and probably become the best-selling EV in the U.S. by January or February. Image source: Inside EVs.)
To this point, according to reports from Inside EVs, Tesla produced and sold an additional 345 Model 3s during the month of November. This number is up 200 from the estimated 145 produced and sold during October. In total, Inside EVs estimates that 712 Model 3s had been sold by end of November.
Number sold is not number produced. So if Inside EVs estimates are correct, then Tesla has likely built over 800 Model 3s so far. And present trends make it likely that Tesla will complete between 1300 and 3000 of these revolutionary new vehicles by year-end. If this is ultimately the case, then the Model 3 production ramp is 2-3 months behind schedule. Disappointing to the hundreds of thousands waiting to get their hands on a Model 3, for sure. But not a crisis set to break the back of Tesla — as some have implied.
robertscribbler 
Jim
/ December 1, 2017It’s difficult to quantify Tesla’s lead over rival car companies, but when one considers the strength of the Tesla brand, the extensive Supercharger network, and the vertical integration into battery production, it becomes clear that Tesla has built a significant competitive moat around its business. And it’s highly likely that Tesla’s delays with the Model 3 stem from the high level of automation of their factory, which Tesla claims will be one of the most automated automotive assembly factory in the world. It’s tough to bring on line, but once operational it extends Tesla’s advantage even more.
In contrast rivals have yet to build out a similar charging system, let alone cars which can handle the fast charge, Daimler,BMW, Audi, Volkswagen and Ford have announced plans to build out a reasonable number of 800V fast charging stations, and are designing cars that can accept fast charging.
Others like General Motors, don’t even seem interested in the subject, see the article below from last year.
https://longtailpipe.com/2016/01/14/gm-wont-help-build-the-fast-charging-infrastructure-that-would-jumpstart-bolt-sales/
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robertscribbler
/ December 1, 2017I’ve often wondered if cars like the Bolt are more set toward market defense than enablement of the full potential of EVs. The haven’t really leveraged the systemic advantages of electrical vehicles.
Curious about Nissan. Any fast charging enablement or infrastructure build on their part? The new Leaf has hit the market very aggressively.
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Jim
/ December 2, 2017The 2018 Nissan Leaf comes with an onboard charger of 6.6 kW, with an option of 50 kW charging using the CHAdeMO fast DC chargers, if you can find many.
As for GM, and many of the major automakers, they are facing an existential crisis that they don’t fully comprehend, and it’s coming at them faster than they think. I’ve compared this before to AT&T during the early days of cell phones, when AT&T concluded cell phone technology was just of interest to a “niche market” of less than a million people around the globe. They couldn’t have been more wrong. Conservatively, it cost AT&T at least $50B to buy their way back in.
These assumptions are almost always based on mis-interpreting the rate of technological change. In this case, it’s battery costs, where virtually every estimate of cost declination vs time has underestimated the actual rate of change. (That was AT&T’s mistake as well). In the case of Lithium Ion battery production, we have already seen prices drop 80% over the 2010-2015 period, and Tesla’s investment in a massive battery plant has been answered by a number of other battery manufactures for a total of 250MWh of annual capacity due on line between now and 2020, a development that will likely increase the rate of price reduction.
Somewhere between $125/ kWh and $100/kWh it becomes cheaper to build an EV, rather than a modern ICE that meets stringent pollution standards. GM is paying LG $145/kWh for their cells, and Tesla is believed to be below that.
This means that within a few years, let’s say by 2020, it will be cheaper to build and purchase an EV. It’s already cheaper to own, drive, and maintain, it offers better performance and is longer lived, and it is climate friendly even when paired by the existing electric power grid generation system, which is getting cleaner every day.
This is the freight train that’s headed for global auto makers. The German manufactures seem to get it. The American and Japanese manufacturers seem to be lagging in their response.
Is it Wall Street pressure to maintain profits (rational market anyone?), or poor leadership, or lack of vision, or all of the above?
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robertscribbler
/ December 2, 2017I think the EV will make the cell phone look like a tempest in a teapot RE rate of technological change. There are quite a few synergies to leverage and large existing markets to exploit. GM appears to be pretty flat footed overall. Volkswagen appears to have woken up. Jaguar too. We’ll see.
That’s north of 250 GWh of new battery production by 2020. Might be more. Gigafactory 1 is expected to ultimately produce more than 100 GWh, possibly as much as 150.
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Abel Adamski
/ December 2, 2017There were a couple of factors brought up on a auto uTube feed I strayed to after viewing the video below.
Namely battery chemistry.
The clues are in the size and range of the Roadster and the the range and power of the Semi.
Came up in relation to the Nikolai team claiming the Semi and it’s pricing, power etc having to be fraudulent – based on their battery availability and costs.
As suggested in the comments , Tesla is somewhat secretive about it’s battery technology, and the vehicles their configuration, power and range hint at a different or greatly improved and cheaper battery technology. Elon has always been interested in solid batteries and there have been promising developments in that field.
So I would suggest watch this space
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Abel Adamski
/ December 2, 2017A company I have shares in via my Super, mid to long term investment
If I may add, Gigafactories are on the way in many countries, one in New York State for example. I am Australian partially managing my retirement fund (at 70). Just check out the management (One high powered team including a Nobel Prize nominee for work developing Li-ion batteries) of this Graphite Miner come gigafactory partner Magnis Resources – https://newswire.iguana2.com/af5f4d73c1a54a33/mns.asx/2A1049988/MNS_2017_AGM_Presentation . Then their update. Magnis Resources Limited (“Magnis” or the “Company”) (ASX:MNS) is pleased to provide this update to shareholders on progress in Tanzania, potential Binding Offtake Agreements, and the continued diversification of its operations through ownership in the development of lithium-ion Gigafactories in the United States, Germany and Australia.
Plus the explosion in Battery technology research happening now
But Sodium Glass or other technologies could decrease the value of these Gigafactories if they are purely Li-ion based.
Being Graphite miners they have Graphene exposure also
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bill h
/ December 2, 2017Robert, in Europe the charging infrastructure tends not to be provided by the car manufacturers. The various manufacturers have settled on a couple of standard rapid charger sockets: Chademo for DC and CCS for CCS for AC so the great majority of rapid charge points, which are provided by a range of companies, have both. Thus, it is not a matter of hunting around for a “match” for your particular make of car: pretty well any charging point will be compatible.
The exception is bloody Tesla, with their own “exclusive” chargers, which are no good for non-Tesla vehicles. However, in Britain at least there are not many such chargers in existence.
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robertscribbler
/ December 3, 2017Interesting. So the situation is flipped in Europe. Seems like a strategic loss for Tesla there not to make use of the standard chargers. However, I’ve seen recent reports showing that Tesla is testing model adapters for compatibility with the European system. So it looks like this problem is being addressed.
I’m not too sure about the larger future for charging infrastructure investments in the U.S. One would hope that more funds are headed in that direction. Seems to be the general pattern. Tesla has a serious advantage with regards to fast charging in many markets, though. And this appears to be true even in Europe.
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Mblanc
/ December 3, 2017It is clear that things are playing out slightly differently in the US and Europe, and I’d imagine the far east is different again.
There certainly seems to be more government money going into charging points, here in the UK (A £400 million charging fund was announced in the recent UK budget, but I think it only puts up half the installation costs, so it still depends on private money), but then we do not have the space that you have in the US, and we also have a less ‘stripped down’ view of what a govt should do.
I’m starting to think that whilst a big ramp up of charging infrastructure is clearly required, it can be built pretty quickly. As it is the rapid chargers that are really going to be the game changers, I think any self respecting service station is going to see a fall in custom if they do not have some, to bring the EV drivers in.
I think some Tesla chargers are usable by other vehicles anyway, and at least they have showed how it can be done, so I think ‘bloody Tesla’ is very harsh. A quick check brought up 362 supercharger locations in the UK, and about a hundred destination chargers, and I believe you get a generic adapter so you can use some of the general charging points too.
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robertscribbler
/ December 3, 2017This was my general understanding. Good to have confirmation. So the adapters are probably already factored in.
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bill h
/ December 3, 2017Mblanc, as a Leaf driver myself I stand by the “bloody Tesla” remark. If you could let me know the whereabouts of such open access chargers, actually provided by Tesla as opposed to merely being adjacent to Tesla chargers, and therefore appearing as “Tesla chargers” on apps like Zap-map in the UK then I’d be very grateful, and might even withdraw my “very harsh” assertion.
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Mblanc
/ December 3, 2017Funnily enough, I went and looked at something called Tesla destination chargers
(because it is fairly obvious the Superchargers are Tesla only), and then Zap map, and found that you could charge other vehicles at those locations too. Thank you for the correction.
I also checked up on the number of Superchargers, and I thought 362 was more than ‘not many’, but you obviously have first-hand experience, so perhaps I’m not understanding something else.
Given all that, I would like to correct my comment from ‘very harsh’ to ‘seems a bit harsh’, and if you could tell me why 362 is not many, I would withdraw my remark without reservation.
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Bill H
/ December 4, 2017Mblanc,
Zap map gives 278 superchargers in the UK and Ireland combined, which does surprise me. However, thes are concentrated in just 45 locations, which I would describe as “not many” – it’s only a few percent of the total. For us EV drivers it’s location that matters: how far you are from the next source of juice. Were half the locations exclusively for Teslas then that would be a pain in the fundament. However, one can easily live with a few %.
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Mblanc
/ December 5, 2017Bill,
I bow to your greater knowledge and understanding, I obviously didn’t look hard enough to get a proper grip of the situation. 45 locations certainly isn’t many. I’m sure most Tesla’s (up to now) will have been bought by those who have space for the home chargers, because I’ve certainly seen quite a few on the roads.
It is good have someone who actually has day to day knowledge of using an EV to keep it real. I think I know enough about the subject have an opinion, but my opinions are much better when I have a good grasp of the facts!
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Jim
/ December 1, 2017Tesla Body Welding. Production will be twice as fast. Check out the positioning jig.
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robertscribbler
/ December 1, 2017It really is an amazing production architecture they’ve put together. Once they get it to fly, it could put those other rocket ships to shame 😉
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robertscribbler
/ December 1, 2017I’m going to add this to the discussion. Bill McKibben calling for very rapid carbon emission reduction via renewable energy transition. I’m in that camp. https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/936714750322532359
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wili
/ December 2, 2017Acceleration in the global mean sea level rise: 2005-2015
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL076129/abstract
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Andy_in_SD
/ December 2, 2017The biggest challenge for Tesla is not the product. It is finances. Their burn rate is $8000/minute. That works out to just under 1/2 million dollars per hour or $1 billion/quarter. Instead of focusing on trucks or another “roadster”, they really need to stay focused and scale up this manufacturing to get the benefits of economies of scale on the model 3.
Unless they raise more capital, they will run out or money on Monday, Aug. 6. 2018 (At 2:17 a.m. New York time).
There is an attempt to have people prepay for their vehicles, even 24 months before promised delivery to avoid another round of funding. However, with their track record, can you trust that 24 months? And who has kind of cash laying around to do that? That doesn’t work on a car loan (which is what most people use to finance vehicle purchases).
Also, their burn rate will increase as they are forced to retrofit vehicles to work with EU & Chinese standard plug configurations for recharging (EU & China are miles ahead, they have adopted standards for recharging for ALL electric vehicles). The entire Tesla charging network in China also has to be redone to be in alignment with the standards.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not an anti-Tesla person. I think they have been tremendous pioneers, and have been bold to push the curve/conversation, action on cleaner solutions. I want them to succeed, we need them to succeed, but they face headwinds that just seem unnecessary as the distractions (trucks, another car configuration) appear more and more to be investor bait more than product.
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rhymeswithgoalie
/ December 2, 2017“Unless they raise more capital, they will run out or money on Monday, Aug. 6. 2018 (At 2:17 a.m. New York time).”
After knowing someone who founded a high-tech startup, with its repeated rapid-fire funding rounds, 8 months seems like an eternity by comparison.
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Andy_in_SD
/ December 2, 2017Agreed, as long the market is looking for places to put money. The current situation (administration) appears to be heading us towards heavy inflation (keeps the party going) or a recession (screw all non 0.1%’ers and hand out gifts to shareholders at the expense of those that keep the economy running). If we get the former (inflation) it will keep investors in the game. If we get the latter (recession) it will get expensive at best to raise capital.
Their danger is the amount of capital they need to raise, at what rate and after their track record. Not being a financier, that should be an interesting evaluation.
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Jim
/ December 2, 2017Hi Andy, The amount of money Tesla is burning through is a valid concern. Most of it is for capital expense: automation, high volume manufacturing capability and the like. If they execute, they’re golden since they’ll have high gross margins on the Model 3, like they have on the Model S and X (>40%). If they fail, then it’s a question of what the capital markets are willing to provide, and at what premium.
I agree with you, at least as to the optics, that the Semi and new Roadster seem to be distractions. I have no way of knowing if this is indeed the case, or if it’s a matter of Tesla’s advanced design team being available to work on new designs, and not capable of being redeployed to the delayed Model 3. If redeployment were a possibility, I’d much rather see Tesla knock the Model 3 launch out of the ballpark, then see them go in too many directions simultaneously.
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robertscribbler
/ December 2, 2017So I don’t think either are distractions. The Semi generates a major market opportunity. The roadster is a validation of Tesla’s technological leadership and will have high gross margin as well.
Where you’re absolutely right is in that the Model 3 is the core of the business. And it is eventually make or break for Tesla. But, at this point, all Tesla has to do is ramp production successfully. They’ve captured this market for the better part of at least two years. A two to three month production delay won’t kill them.
The fact that we’re at 400 per month in November (approx) isn’t too bad, IMO. It’s not where they wanted to be. But they are working up through the ramp.
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robertscribbler
/ December 2, 2017So this particular horse is one the Tesla bears have over-ridden more than just a little bit.
1. Capital burn rate is high due to need for investment in model 3 production chain.
2. Burn rate will peak at around this time and start to taper off. For this reason, the 8,000 dollar per minute burn rate is a bit of a cherry picked number.
3. August date assumes no tapering (which will happen) and no additional revenue from model 3 sales (which will come in at various levels in various build rate scenarios).
4. Heavy lift right now is model 3 production chain. Semi and roadster are smaller cost comparatively. Both draw in larger individual deposits and both have larger individual margins than Model 3.
5. If the worst happened, which isn’t going to happen in 2018, and Tesla ends up bankrupt, Tesla has created so much value that someone would bail them out. That said, I think it’s unlikely. The model 3 production will ramp, more capital will come in. Tesla will move forward.
6. As for profitability, Tesla doesn’t really need to be profitable at this point. Now is the time for CAPEX. This is the moment of opportunity/crisis.
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Andy_in_SD
/ December 2, 2017I don’t see Telsa hitting a wall next August myself either. I am one of the folks cheering for them, but I do play the devils advocate at times and look for the dangers ahead.
They have a rather biased administration who is owned and operated by coal, gas, oil. Those folks may pull levers that cause problems upon their masters orders. Similar to what happened to Tucker.
Other manufacturers (GM, Ford etc…) are well connected via lobbyists to gain advantages, or enact hindrances as well.
Internationally the time for EV’s is here, so they are not the one big player in a new market any more. Now they’ll have competitors, driving down margins.
They do have brand recognition (similar to Apple) which will allow them to always command a premium. Same can be said about their product itself, it has recognition as a superior product.
The power wall, and grid battery systems as well as their work in Porto Rico I think will benefit them, and legitimize them tremendously. I see great opportunity here for Tesla. I can see a lot more infrastructure contracts for them worldwide.
The truck could have been revealed after ramp up for model 3 was further along to maintain focus. We may not like the money guys, but they are the guys with the money.
Gigafactory, I see this as an economies of scale opportunity. Hopefully they are engaging other EV manufacturers to be a supplier of batteries.
They are not dumb people, and I am sure they have envisioned all routes. My only true concern is the volatility we are all exposed to with the current leadership in the country. The risk for a correction (or worse) in the economy is the big danger, and it seems to grow with every action (like the new tax hike for little folks, tax cut for rich guys bill).
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Jeremy in Wales
/ December 2, 2017The concentration on the Tesla Model 3 production ramp is non-productive since the rest of the automotive industry does not develop models in the way Tesla is doing. the following is from August this year:-
“This is now showing in that the Tesla Model 3 can’t be produced in all but the tiniest quantities for its first month or two – literally single-digit number of cars produced per day. Basically, Tesla is trying to compress a multi-year test-and-manufacturing cycle into six months. In contrast, Nissan has developed the LEAF 2.0 in the normal industry way: First, build batches of a few hundred cars and test them for millions of miles over a year or two, while perfecting the assembly line, then be ready to produce hundreds of cars per day right after the car is unveiled.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4094924-comparing-tesla-model-3-production-ramp-nissan-leaf-2_0
I live near a GM plant (recently sold to Peugoet) and whenever a new model is released they have a stock of vehicles ready. Tesla is cutting corners as they are the new boys, they do not have the resources, factories around the world, employee numbers etc. They will get there in a few months.
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robertscribbler
/ December 3, 2017Reply to both Jeremy and Andy.
Thanks for the informed comments.
So there’s one point I’d like to add into the mix here. I don’t really see a true Model 3 competitor for at least the next 2 years. Sure we have the Leaf — which is a lower capability, lower cost car. An excellent EV, for sure. But not the 3. The Bolt may compete on range and price, but doesn’t have the kind of performance advantages or access to fast charging as the 3.
There’s really nothing like it in its class at this time or for the near term foreseeable future.
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Mblanc
/ December 3, 2017The production difficulties are oversold, don’t believe the hype. Jeremy has an excellent point about the different approaches used, and I personally think it is good to see the fresh thinking, because an EV should be a far simpler build.
Nissan are interesting, because not everyone needs the capability of a Model 3, particularly outside the US where we tend to drive smaller cars. I don’t see how loving both the Tesla and the Leaf is difficult, we need cars for everyone asap, and Tesla is unlikely to want to fight at bottom end of the market, at least for now.
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robertscribbler
/ December 3, 2017Exactly. And the Leaf is a wonderful vehicle for the price. I see more of a kind of handshake between Leaf and Model 3.
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Jeremy in Wales
/ December 3, 2017The interesting point with the new Leaf is the likliehood that Nissan will sell possibly three different size batteries –
“However, there is no shortage of indications that suggest the initial version of the LEAF 2.0 would launch with a 40 kWh battery, likely indicating 150-160 miles of range. Only a little later – perhaps a full year after initial launch – would the 60 kWh battery be available, reaching closer to 230 miles of range.
No matter, the jump from barely over 100 miles to 150-160 miles of range would open up the field to far more buyers than the current LEAF. One can even envision a version with 120-140 miles of range with a battery less than 40 kWh, as well as something between the 160 and 230 mile range. Nissan could offer not just two, but perhaps as many as three, four or even five battery capacities at different prices.
Over time, Nissan’s new LEAF could therefore span price points from under $25,000 to over $35,000. That would expand the market and maximize sales for the LEAF 2.0.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4094924-comparing-tesla-model-3-production-ramp-nissan-leaf-2_0
While in my dreams I would love a Tesla a smaller car is more practical and in towns can be more fun. My other half has a Fiat Panda – tiny ie smaller than a mini- which is fun and is easy to park, can carry four although forget any luggage.
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Mblanc
/ December 3, 2017Just realised it sounds like I think ‘cars for everyone’ is a solution, when reducing car usage is part of the solution. Perhaps ‘cars for those who need them’ would have been better.
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coloradobob
/ December 2, 2017When this is all married into our world. And it is coning. The Trump world is a speed bump.
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coloradobob
/ December 2, 2017Tombstone Doc Holliday meets Johnny Ringo
https://robertscribbler.com/2017/12/01/tesla-model-3-production-more-than-doubled-during-november/
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coloradobob
/ December 2, 2017I’m your huckleberry Tombstone
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robertscribbler
/ December 2, 2017There’s a reckoning coming, Bob. You know it. I know it. Doom may sell better here. But hope — well that darn thing just springs eternal.
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Allan Barr
/ December 3, 2017The math says we are toast, but I agree with you that while there is life there is hope and its kinda tough to take us humans out.
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robertscribbler
/ December 3, 2017‘Never tell me the odds’ 😉
Actually… The math says we have a shot, but we’d better take it now.
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Jim
/ December 2, 2017Let us really hope this is true.
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Mblanc
/ December 3, 2017I think we should try and retain some positivity, and keep trying, until we are absolutely sure there is no point.. Imagine talking ourselves into apathy, when there was still a chance.
It is a difficult balance though, and I respect other views on this, because we are pushing our environment into unknown territory, and anyone who isn’t deeply troubled hasn’t done the background.
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coloradobob
/ December 2, 2017Tombstone Bitch Slap
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vastmandana
/ December 2, 2017I relocated to northern Idaho early this year to care for my 90 yr old mom… First thing I did after selling my bay area urban farm was to send Elon a thousand bucks for my model 3…I truly admire all he’s done and will incest in a better future… Rooftop photovoltaic system next year!
We make the future!
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robertscribbler
/ December 3, 2017Thank you for helping all of us transition to renewable energy. Please keep us updated!
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Mblanc
/ December 3, 2017Typo alert!
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Jim
/ December 4, 2017🙂
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wili
/ December 2, 2017Trump seems to have inadvertently just admitted in a tweet to knowingly obstructing justice, an impeachable offense.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/362935-ex-obama-doj-official-trump-just-admitted-to-obstruction-of
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wili
/ December 2, 2017“‘Just unreal’: Trump’s latest tweet indicates he’s ‘utterly clueless about his own jeopardy,’ experts say”
http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-defends-flynn-there-was-nothing-to-hide-2017-12
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robertscribbler
/ December 3, 2017Now they’re trying to say the Trump legal team posted the tweet. So we’re expected toe lived that Trump lawyers are this stupid? Words can’t describe how udicrus this is.
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Jim
/ December 2, 2017Motor Trend review of Model 3. Tesla wins on handling, acceleration, braking, steering responsiveness compared to a BMW 330i.
BMW performance wins are limited to .01g higher lateral acceleration and .1sec faster 0-30 time, but the higher technical lateral acceleration doesn’t translate to faster times through figure 8 turns. Other measures of acceleration such as 0-60, 0-90, passing 45-65, quarter mile time, quarter mile speed all go to Tesla. BMW wins for a bigger trunk.
Mileage for the Model 3 is 126 MPGe vs 27 MPG in the BMW.
Motor Trend compares the Tesla handling to Porsche Caymen and Boxster.
http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-3/2018/exclusive-tesla-model-3-long-range-first-test-review/
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robertscribbler
/ December 3, 2017So the model 3 starts at 35,000, the 3 series BMW starts at 33,000, the Porsche Boxster starts at 53,000.
The model 3 will compete with both of these ICE vehicles and take away some of their market share.
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bostonblorp
/ December 2, 2017“Electric cars already cheaper to own and run than petrol or diesel – study”
There’s a pretty big caveat that the cost includes government subsidies but the paper expects that to be irrelevant in a few years.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
Link to paper in question: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626191731526X?via%3Dihub
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Exposing the Big Game
/ December 2, 2017Reblogged this on The Extinction Chronicles.
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Abel Adamski
/ December 3, 2017A couple of slight shifts in focus
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/02/extraordinary-year-must-step-tackle-climate-change/
In this extraordinary year, we must step up to tackle climate change
Inga Beale
(Dame Inga Beale is chief executive of Lloyd’s of London)
Around the world the insurance sector takes in billions of dollars every year in premiums. Some of this money is then invested to help it grow and to make sure capital is available to pay claims. What that means is that we can help to influence certain behaviours through our investments – by choosing sustainable or low-carbon stocks, for example.
Looking at the policies of the Lloyd’s Corporation, the body that oversees the market, while we already make a considerable effort to reduce our own environmental impact, I felt that more could be done to incorporate climate considerations into our investment decisions.
We have therefore decided to implement a coal exclusion policy as part of a responsible investment strategy for the central mutual fund that sits behind every insurance policy written by the Lloyd’s market. That means that in the areas of our portfolio where we can directly influence investment decisions we will avoid investing in companies that are involved only in coal.
Actions such as these are good. But there are plenty more ways our sector can make a difference. We must harness the collective will of policymakers, businesses and communities to tackle climate change, by building up resilience, reducing emissions and helping the transition to a low-carbon economy. These are areas where the insurance sector can make a real difference – and build a brighter future for all.
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Abel Adamski
/ December 3, 2017Our Brilliant Indian Billionaire Sandeep Gupta makes the news again in the UK with his steel interests and renewable energy company (Where the background expertise behind his Australian investments and strategies comes from)
Steel-maker Liberty House is about to launch a massive green investment campaign as it looks to quadruple production capacity.
Liberty’s parent GFG Alliance will this week begin a three-year, £700m spending spree on renewable green power assets via its energy arm Simec.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/02/liberty-invest-700m-new-green-steel-strategy/
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Vic
/ December 3, 2017He’ll go far that lad.
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Jeremy in Wales
/ December 3, 2017BBC Wales have a programme Man of Steel: Sanjeev Gupta, 50 minutes following his rise, available on BBC i player and I think You Tube – not sure if it can be viewed outside UK
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09gyb50/man-of-steel-sanjeev-gupta#
Does not really make play of the green aspect of his strategy, mentioned in passing.
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Vic
/ December 3, 2017Some numbers from Victoria’s wet weekend…
Compared to their average rainfalls for the entire month of December,
Echuca – 29.1mm
Euroa – 41.2mm
Strathbogie – 56.7mm
Lake Eildon – 56.8mm
And then came day three…
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Vic
/ December 3, 2017LikeLike
robertscribbler
/ December 3, 2017Thanks for this, Vic. Had some reports of up to 250 mm yesterday.
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Shawn Redmond
/ December 3, 2017An animation of the giant iceberg that calved off the Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica just over two months ago shows an unexpected break up.
Satellite images revealed a 100-square-mile iceberg calving from Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier (PIG) in September. The calving event did not come as a complete surprise, but is a troubling sign for future sea-level rise. Scientists expected the iceberg to drift far out into the Southern Ocean before breaking up. However, it got stuck, probably impeded by thick sea ice, before it started to disintegrate into many smaller icebergs.
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-12-giant-west-antarctic-iceberg-disintegrates.html#jCp
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Spike
/ December 3, 2017Interesting news on boulders and storms from across the pond, perhaps more evidence for Hansen’s superstorms warning https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/ancient-storms-not-a-tsunami-left-massive-boulders-on-western-coast-cliffs-study-finds-1.3314054
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robertscribbler
/ December 3, 2017Interesting. Thanks for this, Spike.
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Jeremy in Wales
/ December 3, 2017There was massive flooding around the Severn Estuary (Mor y Hafren) on 20 January 1607 which killed approximately 2,000 people, affecting Cardiff & Bristol, but also Barnstaple in Devon right upto Gloucester There are two possible explanations of possible cause either a storm surge or a Tsunami, Contemporary descriptions of the event seem to my mind to favour the Tsunami explanation but a storm surge is possible but would be slower acting. The wave seems to have literally come out of the blue although being January it was stormy and a large tide was due on 30/01/1607.
From Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_Channel_floods,_1607
“Haslett and Bryant found significant evidence for the tsunami hypothesis.[15] This included massive boulders that had been displaced up the beach by enormous force; a layer up to 8 inches (20 cm) thick composed of sand, shells and stones within an otherwise constant deposit of mud that was found in boreholes from Devon to Gloucestershire and the Gower Peninsula; and rock erosion characteristic of high water velocities throughout the Severn Estuary.”
The ineresting feature of the South Wales coast is the large displaced boulders
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=tOkpBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA153&lpg=PA153&dq=large+boulders+sully+island&source=bl&ots=hLzmorOVNA&sig=IDIU-Gr9VpD_c1j_uZiN490HrrM&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjr0Yj1-O7XAhVFyKQKHd-qB28Q6AEIYDAK#v=onepage&q=large%20boulders%20sully%20island&f=false
The problem with boulders on coasts is determining the cause of their deposition, storm or Tsunami. Mega slides – such as the Hawaiian islands, Azores or as Hansen postulates Mega Storms. Plus in the Northern hemisphere strange rocks everywhere due to various ice ages and often their deposition does not appear to agree with expected ice flows. Unfortunately the rocks do not always give a clear story.
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Vic
/ December 3, 2017Two Chinese state owned banks, the largest and second largest banks in the world by assets, have both publically ruled out funding Adani’s Carmichael coal mine project, making them the 25th & 26th banks worldwide to do so.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-03/chinese-banks-not-interested-in-financing-adani-carmichael-mine/9221750
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robertscribbler
/ December 3, 2017A more sustainable investment choice to be sure — opting out of coal.
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Greg
/ December 3, 2017Go Tesla. I have read interviews with engineers that left German companies and stated Tesla is as much as 7 years ahead of them. How? The current big players are largely throwing billions at adopting newer technologies to older platforms and supply chains and ways of building, while Tesla has designed newly everything from scratch including verticle integration and ways of building. One example. As a result of in house integration and verticle production, the car can be updated and fixed through the air with software that is completely integrated throughout the car from a centralized super computer. Any other manufacturer has multiple vendors with multiple computers throughout and can only hope to catch up. They can slap a pretty console screen in it but it is way more complex, expensive and slower to upgrade. First order and complete systems thinking. When you go to configure your model 3 now you can purchase a package for 3 or 5 thousand dollars, and customers will do this because they believe in Tesla, for complete autonomous driving that may not be usable or implemented for YEARS until regulatory bodies catch up but the hardware is there and software largely there and easily updated. That is just one area of advance. Tesla is already designing and building the factory to make the factory, so to speak, and are sucking the best talent out there up for thus. Elon stated off the cuff that Tesla will be bigger than Apple by 2025 and it was not stated as bluster. He is way way way out there. Example for the month? I kid you not, and I was skeptical at first, but to demonstrate and test cargo capacity, He is using his own Roadster, one of the first ever built, and launching it towards an orbit around Mars THIS month or next, with the new SpaceX Falcon heavy rocket. From a marketing standpoint this is beyond anybody’s level of play and plain genius. The car will orbit Mars for a billion years from now, literally. He will have video from the drivers seat of it “driving” through the solar system with David Bowie playing in the background…
“Payload will be my midnight cherry Tesla Roadster playing Space Oddity. Destination is Mars orbit. Will be in deep space for a billion years or so if it doesn’t blow up on ascent.”
https://insideevs.com/elon-musk-tesla-roadster-mars/
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robertscribbler
/ December 3, 2017And who said Tesla doesn’t have a marketing budget?
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Vic
/ December 4, 2017LikeLike
X miller
/ December 3, 2017GM is well on the way to becoming the Adressograph-Multigraph of the automotive industry. Once it allows its highly profitable pickup truck and SUV lines to be eclipsed by higher torque and longer range BEV vehicles, which will also be cheaper to operate, then it will be game over for GM.
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robertscribbler
/ December 3, 2017In order to prevent this, they’ll have to move more aggressively into the EV space with more of a vision for leveraging inherent EV advantages.
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wili
/ December 3, 2017“A cricket Test match between India and Sri Lanka was repeatedly interrupted on Sunday with claims players were “continuously vomiting” due to hazardous pollution levels in the Indian capital.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/03/pollution-stops-play-at-delhi-test-match-as-bowlers-struggle-to-breathe
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Hilary
/ December 4, 2017newspaper related to the previous post re. Melbourne, this is how we are being influenced by the same hot blob here in NZ:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/99501416/whats-behind-the-heatwave-record-sea-surface-temperatures-are-off-the-chart
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Hilary
/ December 4, 2017PS We have just been told this on the news:
“Napier water levels “critically low”, supply could run out tonight”, so we have full outdoor watering restrictions, I have never had this in December before, sometimes we do get water
restrictions in late summer. I’m blaming the blob! Meanwhile my brother who lives in Melbourne had all that rain!
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coloradobob
/ December 4, 2017Arctic Sea Ice Hits Record Lows Off Alaska
As we enter December, the Chukchi and Bering Seas, which border Alaska on its western and northern sides, have unprecedented areas of open water and the least amount of ice ever recorded there.
“Certainly we’ve never seen anything quite like this before,” said Mark Serreze, the director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/30112017/arctic-sea-ice-extent-record-chukchi-bering-sea-alaska-ocean
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wili
/ December 4, 2017Wildfire season is now year-round in California.
“Potential for the strongest and longest duration Santa Ana event so far this season”
thanks to sig at asif for this
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coloradobob
/ December 4, 2017Amazing Autumn on Alaska’s North Slope: Record Warmth, Record Low Sea Ice Extent
Christopher C. Burt · December 4, 2017, 1:25 AM EST
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/amazing-autumn-alaskas-north-slope-record-warmth-record-low-sea-ice-extent
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coloradobob
/ December 4, 2017Trump will shrink Bears Ears during Utah visit Monday, when five tribes promise to sue him
“The tribes view this as an affront to themselves and their own self-determination,” said Natalie Landreth, senior staff attorney for the Native American Rights Fund. “All of us, all five tribes, will be suing jointly the day he makes an announcement.”
Five tribes — the Hopi, Navajo Nation, Ute Mountain Ute Tribe, Pueblo of Zuni and the Ute Indian Tribe — make up the Bears Ears Inter-Tribal Coalition that advocated for the monument. Landreth said they have not determined which federal court the group would file the lawsuit in but that it would be about violating the Constitution’s separation of powers.
http://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2017/11/28/trump-to-visit-salt-lake-city-on-monday-will-announce-a-smaller-bears-ears-and-grand-staircase/
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coloradobob
/ December 4, 2017Phoenix weather: We just had the hottest November ever. And 2017 could be the city’s hottest year
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix-weather/2017/12/01/phoenix-weather-hottest-november-ever/910586001/
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coloradobob
/ December 4, 2017Humanity’s fight against climate change is failing. One technology can change that.
Iceland is cold. But it sits atop one of the world’s hottest underground regions, giving the country the ability to tap into a massive store of geothermal energy held by live volcanoes beneath Icelanders’ feet. Drill down only a few hundred meters, and trapped water will come gushing out as high-temperature steam. It’s easy enough to turn that into electricity: just run it through a turbine to drive an electrical generator, like we’ve been doing for over 100 years with any kind of steam.
The only problem is drilling into these volcanic regions also releases carbon dioxide, the major greenhouse gas driving global climate change. Geothermal power is still very clean, producing just 3% of the emissions of a coal plant generating the same power. But Iceland wants to reduce its emissions all the way to zero.
The solution can be found at the Hellisheidi geothermal power plant, Iceland’s largest, just outside the capital Reykjavik. Since 2014, the plant has been extracting heat from underground, capturing the carbon dioxide released in the process, mixing it with water, and injecting it back down beneath the earth, about 700 meters (2,300 ft) deep. The carbon dioxide in the water reacts with the minerals at that depth to form rock, where it stays trapped.
https://qz.com/1144298/humanitys-fight-against-climate-change-is-failing-one-technology-can-change-that/
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coloradobob
/ December 4, 2017Giant West Antarctic iceberg disintegrates
Animation showing satellite images of the disintegration of the ice berg that calved off Pine Island Glacier in September 2017. Credit: British Antarctic Survey
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-12-giant-west-antarctic-iceberg-disintegrates.html#jCp
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coloradobob
/ December 4, 2017Alaska’s Coast Is Vanishing, 1 Storm at a Time
Ordinary storms are chipping away at coastal communities as protective sea ice disappears
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/alaskas-coast-is-vanishing-1-storm-at-a-time/
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coloradobob
/ December 4, 2017Thawing permafrost causes $51M in damages every year to N.W.T. public infrastructure: study
An advocacy group has put a price tag on the heaving roads and leaning buildings ubiquitous across the Northwest Territories.
According to the Northwest Territories Association of Communities, thawing permafrost is causing approximately $51 million worth of damage to public infrastructure every year, and only the federal government has pockets deep enough to fix the problem.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/thawing-permafrost-causes-51m-in-damages-every-year-to-n-w-t-public-infrastructure-study-1.4408395
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coloradobob
/ December 4, 2017LikeLike
coloradobob
/ December 4, 2017Climate Change Destroyed My Home
Just over a year ago, Tropical Cyclone Winston, the worst ever cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere, made landfall in Fiji, affecting around 350,400 people (40 percent of the country’s population). The storm caused 44 deaths and damaged an estimated $1.38 billion of our infrastructure, temporarily crippling our economy.
I was away in New Zealand, attending university and monitoring the news when my own family’s homes were destroyed. I heard of how my three-year-old daughter clung to her grandma and mother while I tried to get on the next flight home, praying to see them all alive. I tried to call but the telecommunication system was down, and the emergency lines at the evacuation centers were always busy. Our island had never seen this level of destruction.
I was born in Fiji, an island country that is rapidly seeing the impacts of climate change. In this region of the world, the science and data about rising sea levels and global warming manifest in front of our eyes. People are leaving their homes, the government is evacuating entire villages to higher land, and everything from our food supply to island culture is threatened.
But I first came to accept the severity climate change when visiting the nearby islands of Kiribati and Tuvalu in 2014. One morning, I woke up in panic to hotel staff screaming for all guest to vacate the hotel. Getting off the bed, I had water at knee-height with my belongings floating inside the room. I pushed the door open to find locals waiting to escort guests to an evacuation center. I saw how mothers were carrying their little babies, braving the cold and strength of the waves as the tides rose.
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/kzge7m/climate-change-destroyed-my-home-stressweek2017
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