Over the past week, 21 all-time temperature records were shattered across the Northern Hemisphere. These records coincide with an extreme heatwave blanketing large parts of Europe, North America, Africa, the Middle East and Asia. A heatwave that has resulted in the tragic loss of 33 lives in Quebec.
(Global heatwave in context.)
According to news reports, major temperature records in this broad ranging swath of heat included a 105 F (40.5 C) reading in Denver, a scorching 122.4 F (50.2 C) temperature in Pakistan, a ridiculous 97.9 F (36.6 C) reading in Montreal, and a 91.8 F (33.2 C) reading in Motherwell Scotland of all places (see graphic here).
In Quebec, safety officials were inundated with 1,200 calls per day due to heat stress and heat injury. Emergency crews were at the ready with 3,400 house visits conducted each day. Despite the high state of readiness, 33 people so far are reported to have lost their lives — primarily middle aged to elderly males. High heat, high humidity, and lack of residential cooling all contributed to heat injuries and loss of life over this typically much cooler region.
In context, a total of 23 all time record high maximum and record high minimum temperatures have been produced as a result of the present heatwave during the past 7 days. This compares to zero all time record low maximum and zero record low minimum temperatures over the same time period. Daily and monthly record highs and record high minimum temperatures are outpacing record low temperatures on a global basis at a rate of 4-12 to 1.
Global warming due to fossil fuel burning has put us in a 115,000 year heatwave on a whole Earth system based context. So we can continue to expect record high temperatures to be breached at higher rates.
(Very high incidence of all time record hot temperatures over the past 7 days. Image source: NOAA.)
According to GFS model forecasts, extreme heat is expected to continue to impact of number of Northern Hemisphere regions over the coming days. Though the North American East may see a respite from the heat over the 1-5 day horizon, high temperatures are expected to continue to hammer western and central zones. Northeast Siberia is predicted to see extreme heat early on, which is then expected to shift west into Eastern Siberia and Scandinavia. Meanwhile, the Middle East, North Africa, and parts of Central Asia are predicted to continue to experience much hotter than normal summer temperatures.
bostonblorp
/ July 5, 2018A huge swath of northern Siberia is currently around 20C above average with temps as high as 29C. And the winds are blowing right out into the Arctic Circle.
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robertscribbler
/ July 5, 2018Quite extreme isn’t it?
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robertscribbler
/ July 5, 2018A bit more analysis focusing in on this hot spot:
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bostonblorp
/ July 5, 2018Nice summary – and I concur with the “just insane” analysis. What chance can permafrost have in the face of such temps? Are pingos going to blow all over Siberia like popcorn on a hot skillet?
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hatrack
/ July 5, 2018Why, it’s almost as if things were happening . . . faster than expected.
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Greg
/ July 5, 2018And all that heat means fires are part of the story:
DENVER ― ” A large and rapidly growing wildfire in southern Colorado’s San Luis Valley exploded in size overnight, aided by what authorities described as a 300-foot-tall fire “tsunami” that raced along the fire’s western edge…You can imagine standing in front of a tsunami or tornado and trying to stop it from destroying homes. A human response is ineffective.”
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5b3e3dfce4b05127cceff4c6
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Vic
/ July 6, 2018For the financial year just finished, Australia experienced its hottest July-June period on record. Rather concerning considering that much of that period was influenced by mild La Nina conditions. Outlook for the next three months – above average temperatures.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-05/hottest-fin-year-on-record-bom-data-show/9930606
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bostonblorp
/ July 6, 2018I’m no climatologist and my hunch here is based on nothing but a gut feeling.. but I fear what the next strong El Nino will bring.
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Vic
/ July 6, 2018These days hearing the word El Nino makes me think of the theme song to Jaws.
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Exposing the Big Game
/ July 6, 2018Reblogged this on The Extinction Chronicles.
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godfrey wayne street
/ July 6, 2018HI Robert,
how about an analysis of the impact of the climate changes on food crops? We are losing crops here in Europe already and it is noticeable on the supermarket shelves now.
I have seen no evidence of governments preparing to manage the fluctuations in food supply or informing populations of the causes of the current shortages of certain vegetables and salads.
Thank you for all your work,
Kind regards,
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robertscribbler
/ July 6, 2018I’ll see what I can do. I keep track of the larger FAO Index and note that though food prices are high, we’re not in a situation similar to the Arab Spring at this time. Reports of shortages in Europe would be notable. Will check. However, with an unnecessary and harmful Trump-driven trade war heating up, we are dealing with political impacts to food distribution as well.
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markodochartaigh
/ July 6, 2018And it is not just the quantity of food produced, but the quality. “Increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will reduce the nutritional value of rice, according to an international research team that analyzed rice samples from field experiments started by a University of Tokyo professor. Specifically, iron, zinc, protein, and vitamins B1, B2, B5, and B9, were reduced in rice grown under higher carbon dioxide concentrations expected in the second half of this century (568 to 590 parts per million).” https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/05/180523172256.htm
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mlp in nc
/ July 7, 2018So it begins. Here in Raleigh there haven’t been any edible oranges in the grocery stores for about three weeks. Same thing last year for a time. Three of the most revered Southern crops have not been seen in grocery stores for over a year or more now, and would have to be hunted down at the local farmer’s market, if there at all. For the last two years, you have to have your own pecan tree to have a fresh pecan. China, I believe, is buying all our crop. And in general, fresh produce in the grocery stores for the last year or two is becoming older and older. I wonder what happens to the nutrients in old produce.
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Sheri
/ July 6, 2018I have been afraid the past two years that the speeding heat of climate change is going to overtake any other crisis that mght happen to us financial or economic or a big war.my fear is for threatening food supplies in North America before we can even imagine it.
Of course, this will happen all over the world.
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Vic
/ July 6, 2018China’s iron fist tightens it’s grip on polluting industries with the release of the country’s 2018 to 2020 pollution action plan published on Tuesday. It will expand the number of cities and provinces subject to the crackdown and will include the country’s major coal producing regions and heavily industrialised zones.
It also said no new capacity for steel, coke and primary aluminum production will be allowed in the regions through to 2020, and that steel capacity in Hebei, the country’s largest steelmaking province, will be capped at 200 million tonnes by 2020, down from 286 million tonnes in 2013.
Chinese authorities will also take more action to tackle small-scale “scattered” pollution sources, and will work to cut off water, electricity and raw material supplies to firms that violate rules.
The cabinet also set an annual production and sales target for “new energy” vehicles at around 2 million vehicles a year by 2020, up from the expected ~1 million this year.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-pollution/china-to-cut-coal-use-curb-steel-in-2018-2020-pollution-plan-idUSKBN1JT12J
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Vic
/ July 6, 2018If I’m not mistaken this’ll be the first AC/DC song ever posted on RobertScribbler.
I dedicate it to Elon Musk, Sanjeev Gupta and Xi Jinping.
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islandraider
/ July 6, 2018Not sure if it is the first AC/DC, but is definitely the first AC/DC featuring a bagpipe solo!!!
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robertscribbler
/ July 6, 2018Long way down for fossil fuels too…
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Kirk
/ July 6, 2018It would Help If Canadian Weather Stations gave the correct temperatures.
I live in Vancouver and yesterday it was hot. I noticed how hot it was when I went outside. I have several mercury thermometers around the house and they all read the same temperature, 35°C.
The weather station said it was only 23°C. I checked other Canadian weather stations and they all lowballed the actual temperature.
These stations report across Canada.
Those deaths could have been avoided if the weather stations did their jobs and reported the correct temperatures.
I can understand mistakes but in this case to have all the stations lowball the actual temperature…
If mistakes were being made then you would expect to see temperatures both above and below actual temperatures.
Vancouver had a heatwave 2 weeks ago and the same lowballing of temperatures happened then too.
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Kirk
/ July 6, 2018By altering their own records, weather stations can claim no heatwave occurred and thus Global Warming is not having an effect in Canada.
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maltose1
/ July 6, 2018Kirk, by implying falsification of data and a conspiracy, you are talking like a denier would…
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kassy
/ July 6, 2018Which is problematic with people dropping dead of heatwaves so i don’t think that is the reason.
Current forecast still says 23C feels like 26C. Difference with the house thermometers…they might be exposed to the sun or the whole house is warmed up and they are measuring that?
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wili
/ July 6, 2018Thanks for covering this. GW is already taking lives. Has been for some time, actually.
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Mike S
/ July 6, 2018Scottsdale airport, Arizona, had a low of 95 degrees just this morning, July 6. This is probably the highest minimum ever recorded at this station. I have tried to find info online as to what the all-time high minimum was at this airport before today, but have been unable to so far.
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hatrack
/ July 6, 2018Quick question for you, Robert, and one that has nothing to do with the subject of this post.
I was checking NOAA ESRL for the updated June CO2 levels – 410.79 if you’re “keeping score” – but am having trouble finding who tracks CO2e. Are there universities or met offices out there that regularly report this? Thanks!
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robertscribbler
/ July 6, 2018https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
NOAA tracks CO2 as measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory and through readings collected at multiple sites around the globe. If you search on the ESRL site, it will provide you with a map of CO2 monitoring locations.
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hatrack
/ July 8, 2018Thank you ! Guess I just needed to scratch a bit harder . . .
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hatrack
/ July 8, 2018Sorry, didn’t read my own writing as posted – I mean to post “CO2e” and it didn’t come through (“CO2 equivalent”, in case it doesn’t post again). Thanks!
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Paul in WI
/ July 7, 2018Here’s a good article in the New York Times about the global heat wave and Scott pruitt’s legacy: Scott Pruitt and the Global Heat Wave
Here’s an excerpt from the article:
Washington is often hot in the summer, of course, but the heat wave of the past week has been decidedly abnormal. “For the week through Tuesday, 227 U.S. records were broken for highest temperature for particular days, and another 157 were tied, federal statistics show,” Malcolm Ritter of The Associated Press reported. Burlington, Vt., for example, experienced its highest daily low temperature on record: On Monday, the temperature never fell below 80 degrees.
It’s not just the United States, either. “From the normally mild summer climes of Ireland, Scotland and Canada to the scorching Middle East, numerous locations in the Northern Hemisphere have witnessed their hottest weather ever recorded over the past week,” Jason Samenow of The Washington Post wrote.
Perhaps the most alarming detail in his piece: “In Northern Siberia, along the coast of the Arctic Ocean — where weather observations are scarce — model analyses showed temperatures soaring 40 degrees above normal on July 5, to over 90 degrees. ‘It is absolutely incredible and really one of the most intense heat events I’ve ever seen for so far north,’ wrote meteorologist Nick Humphrey, who offers more detail on this extraordinary high-latitude hot spell on his blog.”
Scott Pruitt resigned as the head of the Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday, after one of the most scandal-marred cabinet tenures of any official. Pruitt abused his office for personal gain in ways large, small and even ridiculous. Lydia O’Connor of HuffPost has a good list.
Yet the worst thing about Pruitt’s tenure still wasn’t his personal corruption. It was his aggressive campaign to aggravate global warming, by rolling back federal attempts to combat it. Pruitt’s career — from Oklahoma attorney general to E.P.A. administrator — has been defined by his attempt to maximize the profits of energy companies, regardless of the effects on everyone else.
That attitude will almost certainly outlast Pruitt, unfortunately. It is effectively the official policy of the Trump administration. You can expect many more heat waves in the years to come.
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Mike S
/ July 7, 2018Looks pretty hellacious in SoCal the past 24 hours. Check out these insane but real stats from the NWS offices there. Note that a few places had lows around 90 degrees in this non-desert area, and one place, Chino, hit 120 degrees. Some places were about 40 degrees above normal.
Southern California Temperature And Precipitation Summary
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
508 AM PDT Sat Jul 7 2018
:
Yesterdays high temperature
Low temperature past 12 hours as of 5AM PDT
Precipitation past 24 hours. M denotes missing. T denotes trace.
** denotes 4PM-4PM reporting station
:
: ID : Station : High/ Low / Pcpn
:
: …Los Angeles County Coast…
:
AVNC1: Avalon Harbor : 96 / 69 / 0.00
AIDC1: Avalon Inland : 112 / 69 / 0.00
CVRC1: **Culver City : 95 / M / M
GTCC1: Getty Center : 110 / 90 / 0.00
HHR : Hawthorne : 99 / 75 / 0.00
LAX : LA Airport : 92 / 75 / 0.00
CQT : LA Downtown/USC : 108 / 79 / 0.00
LGB : Long Beach Arpt : 109 / 74 / 0.00
RDOC1: Redondo Beach : 89 / 72 / 0.00
SMO : Sta Monica Arpt : 99 / 76 / 0.00
1L2 : Santa Monica Pier : 75 / M / M
TOAC1: Torrance : 100 / 72 / 0.00
UCLC1: UCLA : 111 / 78 / 0.00
:
: …Los Angeles County Valleys…
:
BUR : Burbank : 114 / 84 / 0.00
CHTC1: Chatsworth : 114 / 83 / 0.00
CSUC1: Northridge : 115 / 84 / M
PSAC1: Pasadena : 113 / 84 / 0.00
POMC1: Pomona/Fairplex : 116 / 79 / 0.00
JBLC1: San Gabriel : M / M / 0.00
SAUC1: Saugus : 113 / 84 / 0.00
VNY : Van Nuys : 117 / 87 / 0.00
WPCC1: Woodland Hills : 117 / M / M
:
: …Ventura County…
:
CMA : Camarillo : 101 / 70 / 0.00
FILC1: Fillmore : 115 / 78 / 0.00
LOKC1: Lockwood Vly Yard : 99 / 57 / 0.00
OJAC1: Ojai : 114 / 70 / 0.00
LOXC1: Oxnard – NWS : 95 / 68 / 0.00
SMVC1: Simi Valley : 112 / 93 / 0.00
VTUC1: Ventura : 89 / 69 / 0.00
WLVC1: Westlake Village : 112 / 70 / 0.00
:
: …COASTAL AREAS…
:
SDYBL: YORBA LINDA 370 : 115 / 74 / 0.00 /
FUL : FULLERTON AIRPORT 96 : 116 / 77 / 0.00 /
ANAC1: * ANAHEIM 335 : 106 / M / M /
STAC1: SANTA ANA 135 : 114 / 77 / 0.00 /
SDHTB: HUNTINGTON BEACH 5 : 98 / 70 / 0.03 /
SNA : JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT 55 : 108 / 77 / 0.00 /
3L3 : * NEWPORT BEACH 10 : 83 / M / M /
LAGC1: LAGUNA BEACH 35 : 96 / 71 / 0.00 /
SDFRH: LAKE FOREST 970 : 113 / 77 / 0.00 /
L34 : OCEANSIDE HARBOR 10 : 77 / 70 / 0.00 /
OKB : OCEANSIDE AIRPORT 28 : 89 / 68 / 0.00 /
SDVIS: VISTA 330 : 101 / 71 / 0.00 /
CRQ : CARLSBAD AIRPORT 328 : 90 / 72 / 0.00 /
SDETS: ENCINITAS 270 : 91 / 70 / 0.00 /
SDDMB: DEL MAR BEACH 10 : 80 / 71 / 0.00 /
NKX : MIRAMAR 477 : 108 / 73 / 0.00 /
MYF : MONTGOMERY FIELD 420 : 105 / 72 / 0.00 /
SAN : SAN DIEGO INT`L AP 15 : 96 / 71 / 0.00 /
SDNAC: NATIONAL CITY 25 : 97 / 71 / 0.00 /
CVAC1: CHULA VISTA 65 : 96 / 71 / 0.00 /
NRS : IMPERIAL BEACH 23 : 86 / 70 / 0.00 /
SDM : BROWN FIELD 525 : 102 / 72 / 0.00 /
:
: …INLAND AREAS…
:
ONT : ONTARIO 943 : 117 / 84 / 0.00 /
CNO : CHINO 652 : 120 / 76 / 0.00 /
SDALO: RANCHO CUCAMONGA 1940 : M / M / M /
SBD : SAN BERNARDINO 1086 : 118 / 83 / 0.00 /
AJO : CORONA 531 : 114 / 71 / 0.00 /
RAL : RIVERSIDE AIRPORT 818 : 118 / 82 / 0.00 /
UCRC1: RIVERSIDE 986 : 116 / 81 / 0.00 /
RIV : RIVERSIDE MARCH 1542 : 114 / 76 / 0.00 /
BUO : BEAUMONT 2680 : 107 / 82 / 0.00 /
SDLEL: LAKE ELSINORE 1275 : 119 / 81 / 0.00 /
SDHET: HEMET 2050 : 113 / 87 / 0.00 /
SDTEC: TEMECULA 1020 : 114 / 80 / 0.00 /
SDFBK: FALLBROOK 698 : 106 / 73 / 0.00 /
VCFC1: VALLEY CENTER 1312 : 114 / 76 / 0.00 /
SDSMP: SAN MARCOS 630 : 108 / 74 / 0.00 /
ESCC1: ESCONDIDO 645 : 112 / 78 / 0.00 /
PSQC1: SAN PASQUAL VALLEY 255 : 115 / 69 / 0.00 /
RNM : RAMONA AIRPORT 1393 : 117 / 76 / 0.00 /
SGX : RANCHO BERNARDO 690 : 106 / 75 / 0.00 /
SDPOY: POWAY 597 : 112 / 73 / 0.00 /
ALPC1: ALPINE 1695 : 109 / 83 / 0.00 /
SDLAM: LA MESA 500 : 107 / 72 / 0.00 /
SDSNL: SANTEE 435 : 110 / 73 / 0.00 /
ELJC1: EL CAJON 405 : 112 / 76 / 0.00 /
SDRSC: RANCHO SAN DIEGO 400 : 108 / 72 / 0.00 /
LMGC1: LEMON GROVE 427 : 106 / 72 / 0.00 /
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Mike S
/ July 7, 2018Don’t know how to post the above with a monospace font like Courier- it would be a lot more readable with such a font.
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Mike S
/ July 7, 2018Just testing.....Robert, you can delete this post.
Test- Million
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Mike S
/ July 7, 2018Hopefully this will render better.
Pretty hellacious in SoCal the past 24 hours.
Southern California Temperature And Precipitation Summary
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
508 AM PDT Sat Jul 7 2018
:
Yesterdays high temperature
Low temperature past 12 hours as of 5AM PDT
Precipitation past 24 hours. M denotes missing. T denotes trace.
** denotes 4PM-4PM reporting station
:
: ID : Station : High/ Low / Pcpn
:
: ...Los Angeles County Coast...
:
AVNC1: Avalon Harbor : 96 / 69 / 0.00
AIDC1: Avalon Inland : 112 / 69 / 0.00
CVRC1: **Culver City : 95 / M / M
GTCC1: Getty Center : 110 / 90 / 0.00
HHR : Hawthorne : 99 / 75 / 0.00
LAX : LA Airport : 92 / 75 / 0.00
CQT : LA Downtown/USC : 108 / 79 / 0.00
LGB : Long Beach Arpt : 109 / 74 / 0.00
RDOC1: Redondo Beach : 89 / 72 / 0.00
SMO : Sta Monica Arpt : 99 / 76 / 0.00
1L2 : Santa Monica Pier : 75 / M / M
TOAC1: Torrance : 100 / 72 / 0.00
UCLC1: UCLA : 111 / 78 / 0.00
:
: ...Los Angeles County Valleys...
:
BUR : Burbank : 114 / 84 / 0.00
CHTC1: Chatsworth : 114 / 83 / 0.00
CSUC1: Northridge : 115 / 84 / M
PSAC1: Pasadena : 113 / 84 / 0.00
POMC1: Pomona/Fairplex : 116 / 79 / 0.00
JBLC1: San Gabriel : M / M / 0.00
SAUC1: Saugus : 113 / 84 / 0.00
VNY : Van Nuys : 117 / 87 / 0.00
WPCC1: Woodland Hills : 117 / M / M
:
: ...Ventura County...
:
CMA : Camarillo : 101 / 70 / 0.00
FILC1: Fillmore : 115 / 78 / 0.00
LOKC1: Lockwood Vly Yard : 99 / 57 / 0.00
OJAC1: Ojai : 114 / 70 / 0.00
LOXC1: Oxnard - NWS : 95 / 68 / 0.00
SMVC1: Simi Valley : 112 / 93 / 0.00
VTUC1: Ventura : 89 / 69 / 0.00
WLVC1: Westlake Village : 112 / 70 / 0.00
:
: ...COASTAL AREAS...
:
: ID : STATION ELEV : HIGH / LOW / PCPN / SNODEP
: FEET INCHES
:
SDYBL: YORBA LINDA 370 : 115 / 74 / 0.00 /
FUL : FULLERTON AIRPORT 96 : 116 / 77 / 0.00 /
ANAC1: * ANAHEIM 335 : 106 / M / M /
STAC1: SANTA ANA 135 : 114 / 77 / 0.00 /
SDHTB: HUNTINGTON BEACH 5 : 98 / 70 / 0.03 /
SNA : JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT 55 : 108 / 77 / 0.00 /
3L3 : * NEWPORT BEACH 10 : 83 / M / M /
LAGC1: LAGUNA BEACH 35 : 96 / 71 / 0.00 /
SDFRH: LAKE FOREST 970 : 113 / 77 / 0.00 /
L34 : OCEANSIDE HARBOR 10 : 77 / 70 / 0.00 /
OKB : OCEANSIDE AIRPORT 28 : 89 / 68 / 0.00 /
SDVIS: VISTA 330 : 101 / 71 / 0.00 /
CRQ : CARLSBAD AIRPORT 328 : 90 / 72 / 0.00 /
SDETS: ENCINITAS 270 : 91 / 70 / 0.00 /
SDDMB: DEL MAR BEACH 10 : 80 / 71 / 0.00 /
NKX : MIRAMAR 477 : 108 / 73 / 0.00 /
MYF : MONTGOMERY FIELD 420 : 105 / 72 / 0.00 /
SAN : SAN DIEGO INT`L AP 15 : 96 / 71 / 0.00 /
SDNAC: NATIONAL CITY 25 : 97 / 71 / 0.00 /
CVAC1: CHULA VISTA 65 : 96 / 71 / 0.00 /
NRS : IMPERIAL BEACH 23 : 86 / 70 / 0.00 /
SDM : BROWN FIELD 525 : 102 / 72 / 0.00 /
:
: ...INLAND AREAS...
:
ONT : ONTARIO 943 : 117 / 84 / 0.00 /
CNO : CHINO 652 : 120 / 76 / 0.00 /
SDALO: RANCHO CUCAMONGA 1940 : M / M / M /
SBD : SAN BERNARDINO 1086 : 118 / 83 / 0.00 /
AJO : CORONA 531 : 114 / 71 / 0.00 /
RAL : RIVERSIDE AIRPORT 818 : 118 / 82 / 0.00 /
UCRC1: RIVERSIDE 986 : 116 / 81 / 0.00 /
RIV : RIVERSIDE MARCH 1542 : 114 / 76 / 0.00 /
BUO : BEAUMONT 2680 : 107 / 82 / 0.00 /
SDLEL: LAKE ELSINORE 1275 : 119 / 81 / 0.00 /
SDHET: HEMET 2050 : 113 / 87 / 0.00 /
SDTEC: TEMECULA 1020 : 114 / 80 / 0.00 /
SDFBK: FALLBROOK 698 : 106 / 73 / 0.00 /
VCFC1: VALLEY CENTER 1312 : 114 / 76 / 0.00 /
SDSMP: SAN MARCOS 630 : 108 / 74 / 0.00 /
ESCC1: ESCONDIDO 645 : 112 / 78 / 0.00 /
PSQC1: SAN PASQUAL VALLEY 255 : 115 / 69 / 0.00 /
RNM : RAMONA AIRPORT 1393 : 117 / 76 / 0.00 /
SGX : RANCHO BERNARDO 690 : 106 / 75 / 0.00 /
SDPOY: POWAY 597 : 112 / 73 / 0.00 /
ALPC1: ALPINE 1695 : 109 / 83 / 0.00 /
SDLAM: LA MESA 500 : 107 / 72 / 0.00 /
SDSNL: SANTEE 435 : 110 / 73 / 0.00 /
ELJC1: EL CAJON 405 : 112 / 76 / 0.00 /
SDRSC: RANCHO SAN DIEGO 400 : 108 / 72 / 0.00 /
LMGC1: LEMON GROVE 427 : 106 / 72 / 0.00 /
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