Today, as in recent years, we see ample evidence that extra heat in the atmosphere and oceans can severely alter weather around the world.
We are seeing the impacts in Brazil where Sao Paulo reservoirs are now at 4.5 percent capacity and millions are suffering from inadequate and dwindling water supplies. We see similar stress in California where the worst drought in decades is forcing some communities to truck in water. In Syria the situation is even more dire — on the scale of a humanitarian nightmare — where a multi-year drought has destabilized government and spurred violent extremism to surge through an already troubled region.
(Sao Paulo region of Eastern Brazil clearly visible through a mostly cloudless but smoke-filled satellite shot on October 15. Note both the dessicated, browned land of a normally green region together with the steely gray smoke funneling in from wildfires both near Sao Paulo and further north in the drying Amazon rainforest. Intense heat and lack of rainfall combines with fires to create a pallor of smog over much of Brazil also visible here. Image source: LANCE-MODIS.)
In a warming world, drought and deluge are far more common. The added heat increases the rate of evaporation and amplifies the hydrological cycle such that the atmosphere holds 6 to 7.5 percent more moisture per each degree Celsius of heating. This is roughly equal to an increase in the rate of evaporation and precipitation by 6 to 7.5 percent as well. So where droughts occur, they will tend to be more severe and where strong storms develop, they will tend to dump even heavier volumes of rainfall. And a warming of the polar regions coincident with snow and ice loss, plays havoc with both the Jet Stream and traditional storm tracks even as the increased instability generates ever-more-powerful storms.
For a Europe facing off against an Atlantic and Arctic undergoing these wrenching changes, the story is altogether related. Sections of Southern France over a recent six week period received enough rain for an entire year. The Mediterranean waters off this region had heated to between 3 and 4 C above average dumping an intense load of moisture into a hungry upper level low that delivered storm after storm to the beleaguered regions. One spate of deluge dumped a full six months of water from the skies in just three hours.
(Monster storm that bombed out to 952 mb on Wednesday lashes the UK and Ireland with rain and gales on Friday and Hurricane Gonzalo threatens Bermuda. Gonzalo is set to make an eastward turn across the Atlantic and will possibly impact the UK as a tropical storm by Monday or Tuesday of next week. Image source: LANCE-MODIS.)
This week, one such storm swelled to extraordinary intensity in the North Atlantic. On Tuesday and Wednesday it bombed out to a powerful 952 mb monster, filling up most of the Ocean between Newfoundland, Greenland and Europe, casting gales on into the UK and Ireland. It sent storm surges up rivers — forcing them to top their banks, lashed the isles with rainstorms that flooded Belfast, damaged hundreds of homes and sent officials scrambling to assure an already storm-weary public that they were better prepared for such events than last year.
The current storm is expected to rake through the UK and Ireland throughout this weekend before fading off toward the north. As it lifts, hurricane Gonzalo — now packing 125 mph winds and threatening Bermuda — is forecast to surge into the UK with tropical storm intensity come Monday or Tuesday of next week.
(Forecast path for Gonzalo shows a tropical storm off Ireland by Monday morning. Image source: NOAA.)
The 1-2 punch is reminiscent of a relentless series of storms that battered the UK this past winter. A sequence spurred by extraordinary and unprecedented changes to the North Atlantic climate including a slowing of the Gulf Stream, a powerful warming of surface waters in the Arctic, major losses to sea ice in almost all Arctic seas, and increasing cold, fresh water outflows from Greenland. The net effect is to enhance storm track intensity across the Atlantic as warmer waters and airs surge northward coming increasingly into contact with cold polar air and generating powerful and intense storms during the winter, fall, and spring seasons.
With global temperatures flirting with new record highs and with El Nino possibly flaring to life in the Pacific, the end of 2014 and the start to 2015 is altogether likely to see a continuation of such intense, extreme weather. Weather that is severe enough to cause damage and disruption in some areas or even powerful enough to throw whole cities and regions into instability.
Just a few of the tragic results of a warming climate as we approach the 1 C above 1880s temperatures mark.
Links:
North Atlantic Ramping up to ‘Storms of My Grandchildren’
How Climate Change Helped ISIS
Hat Tip to Colorado Bob
Hat Tip to Bernard
robertscribbler 
Ouse M.D.
/ October 17, 2014As a hobby astronomer, this atlantic superstorm reminds me of Jupiter’s Great Red Spot. Which lasts now for about 300 years and could swallow 3 Earths in diameter.
This is uncharted territory; and in the dawn of this, the media, governments seem more concerned about ex-convict football players in their national league and how to maintain infinite eonomic growth.
Not even transatlantic flight passengers being alerted…
100% unresponsible, 100% surreal grotesque , if one is only dependant on mainstream news nowadays….
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Ed-M
/ October 17, 2014Only 1 C above 1880s values and already we have The Storms of Our Grandchildren. What sort of storms will our grandchildren have?
Now on to Hurricane Gonzalo: this morning on the local newscast weather forecast tropical outlook, the meteorologist talked about the storm and where it’s headed. It’s going right for Scotland!
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robertscribbler
/ October 17, 2014This is just a prelude to the storms Hansen feared. Some of his model runs showed storms the size of continents with the strength of hurricanes. Things that would rip across a whole hemisphere. We are looking at slightly larger than garden variety now.
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Ed-M
/ October 17, 2014Well that would certainly challenge human infrastructure on a planetwide basis. And how far off are these monstrous storms? 2050?
As an aside John Michael Greer at The Archdruid Report gives the current capitalist IC system 50 years, and he knows climate chaos is coming….
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robertscribbler
/ October 17, 2014Depends on rate of glacial outflow primarily. 2050 to 2080 would be the time to look for. But if melt outflow ramps up sooner, that would push the time forward.
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robertscribbler
/ October 17, 2014Tropical storms in Scotland…
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james cole
/ October 17, 2014Scotland gets a large Gulf Stream influence as part of that current butts up into the Western Isles. I saw a tropical garden along that coast back in the early 90’s.
History tells of times when great storms battered the western European coasts. Is global warming loading the gun again, only this time with a double load of energy?
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robertscribbler
/ October 17, 2014For reference only one tropical cyclone (warm core) has hit Europe since record keeping began. We do have some evidence for a tropical cyclone hitting Scottland in 1848, though.
In any case, a rare event that will probably become more common…
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lesliegraham1
/ October 18, 2014“I saw a tropical garden along that coast”
Thats Inverewe Gardens in Wester Ross. I used to work there as a gardener back in the early 70’s.
But it isn’t really ‘tropical’. That’s just for the tourists. That coast has some absolutely horrendous weather. I know – I used to have to hold onto the wire fences just to stay upright on my way home from the shop some days.
The main advantage is that it very rarely gets a frost. That’s what kills most of the tender sub-tropical plants that people try to grow in the UK. Even the south coast occasionaly gets a really hard frost but the Gulf Stream prevents that in Wester Ross. But the summer weather is relatively cold and cloudy and very very windy.
The trick at Inverewe was to plant half mile thick windbreaks all around it – especialy on the western side. If you can keep the winds off and you don’t get a frost its amazing what you can grow with a bit of skill in the way of carefull species selection.
For example; a lot of the ‘palm’ trees aren’t palms at all. They are species like Cordyline Australis which is technicaly a lily and grows as far south as the south of New Zealand.
There are a lot of shrubs there that look exotic and delicate but are in fact pretty hardy really,
Also, we used to ‘cheat’ a lot,. We would grow hundreds, thousands even, of tender plants in the greenhouses for up to a couple of years in some cases and then plant them out in the most popular spots just before the main hoards of tourists arrived. They would all be dead by the end of September but by then everyone had gone home and the illusion was complete.
Without the wind breaks it would be like the rest of the west coast – a ruined, degraded, desolate, species-poor wasteland which we environmental consultants classify as ‘Wet Desert’ – the result of centuries of appalling land management which included clear felling immense forests to feed into the iron smelters at Loch Maree and elsewhere and then more recently introducing way more sheep and deer than the land could possibly to sustain.
People tend to forget that the Highlands suffered from OVERpopulation problems until the mid 19th century when the serfs were evicted en masse from the land to make way for more profitable sheep.
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robertscribbler
/ October 18, 2014Thanks, Leslie. This was very enlightening.
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Mark from New England
/ October 18, 2014Interesting account Leslie. I heard about these ‘tropical’ spots along Scotland’s coast, but it’s good to hear the record set straight. On a warm, calm summer’s day it’s still probably a nice place to visit.
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lesliegraham1
/ October 18, 2014On a warm, calm summer’s day the west coast of the Scottish Highlands is probably one of the most beautifull places on the whole planet – especialy if, like most visitors, one believes that barren heather moorland as far as the eye can see is a ‘pristine natural’ landscape as the tourism adverts would have it and not a man-made wet desert which is the reality.
It’s a land of weather extremes. I’ve been lucky enough to experience six weeks of glorious still weather one year, when it’s so pin-droppingly calm that one can hear conversations taking place on the peir from nearly a mile out on a sheet-of-glass sea but I also got caught in winds gusting to 128mph near sea level one winter’s night. Luckily for me my truck was going in the same direction as the winds!
Wind gusts on the hill tops in the Cairngorm mountains have been recorded at 173mph on 20 March 1986. On the exposed plateaus some unwary hikers have been killed, not by the cold, but by being battered to death as they get blown along the rocky ground. Hard to believe unless you’ve experienced something close to it yourself.
Noo *that’s* a fair wee breeze ahm tellin’ ye.
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Spike
/ October 18, 2014I was out in the fields all night in SW England last night and the rainfall was a deluge for several hours, with many small roads under significant amounts of water and seas of mud in the fields. We are fortunate in having had a record dry September, but if this carries on we shall certainly have some local difficulties at the very least.
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james cole
/ October 17, 2014” The Mediterranean waters off this region had heated to between 3 and 4 C above average” This little fact brings to mind what fate the coming global warming will have on the “Middle Sea”. This much heating, does it result in heavy loading of the surface waters with salt? Increasing heat has few outlets from the Mediterranean. Is this sea being lined up in the cross hairs for large changes to it’s ecosystems, which are heavily stressed by dumping of all sorts of human and industrial wastes. The general sea surface warming would effect some local weather patterns. I have read that desertification was a possible result of global warming. For Spain, Southern France, Greece, parts of Italy. Lots of stories were around in the late 90’s early 00’s about desert encroaching on Spanish farmers in the south of that country.
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robertscribbler
/ October 17, 2014Quite a few of the GCMs show the Sahara marching north into southern Europe…
As for added salt content in surface waters — that condition would well be more prevalent in any near equatorial sea or ocean region as the Earth continues to warm.
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Andy (at work)
/ October 17, 2014The City of Miami now scurries pumps out to the streets during king tides to pump back water from in front of the million dollar condos so they don’t flood that come in during the king tides. It is now beginning to happen on high tides and sunny days as well.
Here is a picture from Brickell Avenue during high tide.
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robertscribbler
/ October 17, 2014Miami added nearly an inch in SLR just this year alone.
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Andy (at work)
/ October 17, 2014Some interesting journalism pieces on climate change in Miami and other places packaged up for folks who are not seeking out more targeted info (ie: neven, roberts blog, noaa etc..). They have some good high tide picks of whats occurring on the streets.
http://www.transitmiami.com/tag/climate-change
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Griffin
/ October 17, 2014Regarding Miami, city officials were very proud of the work that the new pumps did in handling this months king tide. I guess that’s what many city officials do, give each other high fives for throwing good taxpayer money at bad. They remind me of the child who has built a sand castle at low tide, resplendent with a moat all around it. As the tide comes in and the moat begins to flood first, the child thinks quick and begins to bail out the moat with a bucket. There is the inevitable proud smile as the first attempt at adaptation to the changing environment shows promise. It works for a little while…
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Andy (at work)
/ October 17, 2014I bet the guy that sold them the pumps is salivating on his big sale in 10 to 15 years when they need bigger pumps, and lots more of them!
The middle / lower class folks will be wondering why they’re paying to buy/operate pumps with their property tax to protect the wealthy condo folks.
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robertscribbler
/ October 17, 2014Ha! We played that game as kids. Called it fight the tide. Looks like Miami will be playing fight the tide from now on. Complete with pumps and damage control systems.
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vardarac
/ October 19, 2014This is not unlike the citizens of Bikini Bottom trying to avoid certain doom by physically pushing their town out of the way of an unavoidable disaster, only in this case they are trying to push the disaster around themselves, with the added bonus of the pushing company and its cronies in the city government making bank off of taxpayer money.
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todaysguestis
/ October 17, 2014Sao Paulo Running Out of Water Unless Reserve Tapped Now
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-16/sao-paulo-without-water-unless-reserves-tapped-now-says-utility.html
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robertscribbler
/ October 17, 2014And then how long do the reserves last?
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Andy in San Diego
/ October 18, 2014Slurping up the dead pool will produce some low quality water. Any idea whether they see much rain at this time of year? Just wondering since it is their summer.
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robertscribbler
/ October 18, 2014This is supposed to be rainy season. It was supposed to start at the beginning of this month. The rainy season remains on hold.
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robertscribbler
/ October 18, 2014Rainy season from October to March. It seems to have been replaced with a burning season.
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Andy in San Diego
/ October 18, 2014Many water system depend on the water pressure to maintain pipe integrity. Hopefully their system is not aged to that point.
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robertscribbler
/ October 18, 2014The reports I saw showed the system to be highly inefficient, leaking something on the order of up to 40 percent.
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Peter Malsin
/ October 18, 2014The situation in a skirt city is now dire, crossing over into the catastrophic.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2014/10/water-crisis-squeezes-brazil-sao-paulo-state-20141017215812595820.html
Sabesp, the main water utility, is apparently reduced to praying for rain although they won’t admit it.
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robertscribbler
/ October 18, 2014We have a resident of São Paulo who posts here as well — Marcos. He is saying that the region has reduced or inaccessible water for millions at this time.
Thanks for the new report. It’s good to see Aljazeera is on this.
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Spike
/ October 18, 2014I hadn’t realised until recently that wild fires can actually reduce rainfall in a direct feedback on drought. David Beerling in his book,Emerald Planet, explains it as a factor in relatively sudden flips from forest to savanna ecosystems. Interesting article here:
http://news.mongabay.com/2005/0414-rhett_butler.html
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Griffin
/ October 17, 2014NWS Boston (today) has high confidence in a significant coastal storm impacting southern New England late next week. Robert, you called this one coming way back at the beginning of the month!!
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robertscribbler
/ October 18, 2014😉 we’ll see! Hope it’s not too bad. Got one eye on the models.
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Phil
/ October 17, 2014I see the latest run with positive PDO values has continued with September jumping up a bit to 1.08, from 0.67 in August. Interesting to see how long this continues and whether is ultimately points to a temporary flip or a more permanent move towards the warm phase.
Also some evidence of downwelling in WPAC indicating that an additional EKW might be forming while the current one seems to be arriving of the coast of South America.
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robertscribbler
/ October 18, 2014SOI yesterday was -18. Haven’t looked yet today. SSTs in the EqPAC rather high.
And, yeah. Good eye on that Kelvin Wave.
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Jay M
/ October 18, 2014Well, boots on the ground from SF Bay region, we are seeing another low pressure system coming in off the Pacific Ocean evaporate as it hits the incipient high which resides in the area now.
Prime rain season for middle California is Dec-Feb, but the febrile decay of each wave of moisture is discouraging in these early months of the wetter calender.
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robertscribbler
/ October 18, 2014The storms keep making runs. And we have an El Niño doing its best to develop. But that wall of hot dry air is something else…
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dtlange
/ October 18, 2014Admitted, I may be a bit peevishly biased about Southern California — after having spent much energy trying to save it from itself :), I am betting the “the wall of hot” will remain dominant.
I now give this high pressure shield the name: Thon the Deflector!
… talk about hot air… but the wall will not easily yield.
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robertscribbler
/ October 18, 2014🙂 no. It won’t go down easily. The long range forecast calls for more of an El Niño like pattern with Southern California receiving above normal moisture and the rest about average this winter. But that wall of heat and dry is holding strong for now.
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Mark from New England
/ October 18, 2014I came across a newspaper article recently stating that the National Weather Service is predicting that the blocking ridge of high pressure off of California’s north coast will dissipate over the winter, and that there won’t be any polar vortex incursions into the mainland US this year! This goes against what we’re learning here, so I’m wondering if you want to chime in on this official prediction. I wish I had a link.
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Joni Grady
/ October 18, 2014We could have a pool- NWS vs several others predicting more of the same as last year….of course Robert would get the proceeds no matter what!
New Stanford report is interesting detailed dissection of drought and CC and RRR. Front page news, right? Not.
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dtlange
/ October 18, 2014Re My: “I am betting the “the wall of hot” will remain dominant.” I would gladly lose this bet. But I am also reminded of the numerous times, when after spotting some new evidence of a toxic event while doing my ordinary sleuthing in Santa Barbara, CA — I would say aloud to myself, ” I did not want to see this!”
I also think of the times the only real El Nino rain relief we got was a “March Miracle” that sometimes showed up in late Feb. or early March.
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Joni Grady
/ October 18, 2014Sorry– missed WaPo coverage of report on 9/29 while on trip to the heart of LA oil country– too weirded out to notice.
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Gerald Spezio
/ October 18, 2014Joni; I went to a San Jose Mercury news piece about the Stanford Report that you mentioned.
Although the reporter’s headline emphasizes the Stanford teams’ causal connection of California’s drought to greenhouse gases, her piece is also full of the standard lawyering/peeyar technique of uncertainties about causal links made in the Stanford Report.
Her piece is filled with “engineered confusion.”
The O. J. Simpson adversary masquerade & flapdoodle trial plays everyday about most important issues in a lying culture filled with deception & deceit.
http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_26627640/californias-drought-linked-greenhouse-gases-climate-change
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RWood
/ October 18, 2014Talk about golden showers (peeyar):
In addition, the 40-page report said, the global fossil fuel sector receives approximately $1.9 trillion in subsidies each year.
“In the absence of robust climate legislation, finance continues to flow unabated into the fossil fuel industry,” the report said. “At the current rate of capital expenditure, the next decade will see over $6 trillion allocated to developing the fossil fuel industry.”
http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/10/18/fossil-fuel-lobby-spent-213-million-last-year-influence-us-eu-politicians
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Mark from New England
/ October 18, 2014The summary of that article should go on Humanity’s tombstone.
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Ouse M.D.
/ October 18, 2014http://magicseaweed.com/news/atlantic-cyclogenesis-birth-of-a-superstorm/6848/
This is a surfer’s blog on the atlantic storm(s).
I don’t know if the header is photoshopped in any way, but that storm in the middle scares the s…. out of me.
The embedded video is also pretty horroristic
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dtlange
/ October 18, 2014A ‘killer’ video.
There is some ‘rad’ (Ah, my slightly dated but suitable surfer lexica to match the weather.) text too:
“… storm is looking like great news for surfers, albeit with some issues. It meets all the criteria for developing substantial swell – a huge scale, hurricane force winds and an almost stationary position forecast, allowing the maximum possible time for swell to develop. Dropping 24 millibars in 24 hours to give an area of over 800 nautical miles of gale force conditions, with hurricane force winds over a large area the latest readings are for waves in the 40ft range. Model guidance suggests it’ll join forces with a small low pressure system moving out of the Labrador Sea over the next 24hrs. This’ll prolong the event and should mean the best part of a week of solid swell.”
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humortra
/ October 19, 2014NASA Confirms A 2,500-Square-Mile Cloud Of Methane Floating Over US Southwest
(Apologies if this is old news.)
http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/10/17/nasa-confirms-2500-square-mile-cloud-methane-floating-over-american-southwest
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dtlange
/ October 19, 2014In order to cover a few topics at once, I created a new post on my dated DTLANGE2.
I usually rely on my photos or wit make a point but on this one I needed a little more. With few images too:
‘Questioning Today’s Arctic and Northern Hemisphere’s Weather, October 18,2014’
Ps To anyone who hasn’t read, and has the time, I highly recommend the 2007 book “Defining the Wind : The Beaufort Scale and How a 19th-Century Admiral Turned Science into Poetry” by Scott Huler.
The wind is air, our atmosphere, in motion.
Nowadays, I tend to think of Jennifer Francis, and her hard research work, and insights into relationship of Arctic Ice and our jet stream. For, she also was a sailor. Her sailing the oceans (with her family as precious cargo, aboard) led her to be on very close terms with the wind and the sea.
In sailing the open ocean, she was constantly ‘modeling’ the conditions around her — and her ‘findings’ were quickly, and forcefully, ‘vetted’ by nature itself.
First a screenshot image (let’s see if it works), then a link reply.
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dtlange
/ October 19, 2014Good, the first part worked. The Nullschool image is changes by the minute so I needed a: “… a screenshot from Oct. 18, 2014 Nullschool shows anticyclonic (clockwise) high pressure winds over the Arctic Ocean. It appears to be pushing air through the Bering Strait, and feeding the (counter-clockwise) winds of a wide area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska…”
Now the link: http://dtlange2.wordpress.com/2014/10/18/questioning-todays-arctic-and-northern-hemispheres-weather-october-182014/
I hope it makes some sense.
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climatebob
/ October 19, 2014We have had some heavy rain this winter so I did some research to find out why our rivers broke their banks. http://www.climateoutcome.kiwi.nz/increased-flood-damage-in-a-warming-world.html
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dtlange
/ October 19, 2014Meanwhile, in North America interesting carbon debacle alliances are being forged:
‘Kuwait’s purchase of Chevron stake paves way for N. America expansion Canada forray shows KUFPEC an emerging player in oil market.’
KUWAIT CITY, Oct 15: Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company (KUFPEC) on Oct 6 purchased 30 percent of Chevron’s holdings in Duvernay Shale basin in Alberta, Canada. This is KUFPEC’s first purchase in North America with a total value of $1.5 billion; yielding 330,000 acres of Duvernay shale gas. HH the Crown Prince Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, who serves as Chief Executive Officer of the company, considers the purchase an ‘anchor project’ that will pave the way for the expansion of Kuwait in North America.
The investment of Kuwait in Duvernay – face value buying into the hydraulic fracturing (‘fracking’) revolution – is also considered an all-in bet on Alberta’s tar sands.’
http://www.arabtimesonline.com/NewsDetails/tabid/96/smid/414/ArticleID/210063/reftab/36/Default.aspx
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dtlange
/ October 19, 2014But with a slight latitudinal descent into Bakken USA, we see Kuwait is used as a marker in the following socioeconomic chronicle.
In a way, it’s like one of Hunter S. Thompson’s “Fear & Loathing” yarns — but the fate of our planet is at stake here. From Wall St. to Main St. — the same forces are at work.
The entire article is rich if you have the time to read the whole thing.
BTW: Last year, while on a train trip from CHI to PDX I learned quite a bit about the effects of Bakken Boom, including the fact that Amtrak had to start locking their refrigerators at night to keep their beer safe from the oil workers.
The story:
‘A Trip to Kuwait (on the Prairie): Life Inside the Boom
By Laura Gottesdiener
At 9 p.m. on that August night, when I arrived for my first shift as a cocktail waitress at Whispers, one of the two strip clubs in downtown Williston, I didn’t expect a 25-year-old man to get beaten to death outside the joint. Then again, I didn’t really expect most of the things I encountered reporting on the oil boom in western North Dakota this past summer.
…I hadn’t driven nearly 2,000 miles from Brooklyn to work as a cocktail waitress in a strip club. (That only happened after I ran out of money.) I had set off with the intention of reporting on the domestic oil boom that was reshaping North Dakota’s prairie towns as well as the balance of both global power and the earth’s atmosphere.
…Now, six years later, the region displays all the classic contemporary markers of hell: toxic flames that burn around the clock; ink-black smoke billowing from 18-wheelers; intermittent explosions caused by lightning striking the super-conductive wastewater tanks that hydraulic fracturing makes a necessity; a massive Walmart; an abundance of meth, crack, and liquor; freezing winters; rents higher than Manhattan; and far, far too many men…
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dtlange
/ October 19, 2014WRONG LINK ABOVE
CORRECT LINK: http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175906/tomgram%3A_laura_gottesdiener%2C_adrift_in_oil_country
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Spike
/ October 19, 2014I think it was John Holdren who said we had 3 choices – to mitigate, adapt or suffer.
Flooding in other regions of Italy with quote from Euronews
“Look at Genoa!” said one man trying to rescue belongings from his flooded home.“They’ve have floods twice in five years. For us it’s twice in two.”
Many believe the flooding could be prevented.One woman blamed local and regional governments:
“The state and local administrations ask money for taxes, but they don’t use it to protect us. I’m 70 years old and I’m not going to go on paying for nothing.”
With flooding seemingly now an annual event, residents want promised building work aimed at shoring up flood-risk area to be speeded up.
The penny hasn’t yet dropped with most of the public that we are in transition to a new climate system and the continuing fog of denial,confusion, and disinformation keeps it that way. That is why this blog and others like it are so vital and why I regularly link to it on social media. Until the public wake up to the urgent need to radically reduce carbon emissions it seems we shall face a future of suffering, as the need for mitigation isn’t realised and therefore supported, and adaptation is limited by the “financial crisis”.
http://www.euronews.com/2014/10/16/anger-grows-as-torrential-rain-brings-more-misery-to-flood-soaked-italy/
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Peter Malsin
/ October 21, 2014Your comment led me to explore the events: flooding in multiple locales in Italy over the course of a week it looks like, events that did not happen as far as North American press are concerned…
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Griffin
/ October 19, 2014Running a marathon in smog that is 14 times over the safe limit. http://mashable.com/2014/10/19/runners-wear-masks-as-beijing-marathon-is-held-in-heavy-smog/
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Colorado Bob
/ October 19, 2014Thousands of holidaying Brits caught in Tenerife flash-floods that left one dead
The holiday island saw seven inches on rain fall in 12 hours today, with tourists warned to stay inside for their own safety
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/thousands-holidaying-brits-caught-tenerife-4465523
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Colorado Bob
/ October 20, 2014Heavy rain in these islands is not good , more water into La Plama . Which has vertical dikes in the volcano’s slopes, and half the thing , wants to slide into the Atlantic. Plus everything is so steep , if Tenerife got 7 inches Lord knows what fell up slope.
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lesliegraham1
/ October 20, 2014Bob – there is no evidence that La Palma is likely to have a major landslide any time soon.
(Ward and Day, 2001) has been refuted and in any case even they didn’t claim a landslide was imminent.
More recent research by a Dutch team calculated it would take at least another 10,000 years of eruptions before there was any likelyhood of a major slip.
And I’m not sure what you mean by ‘up slope’ – Tenerife is the whole island, not a town.
Not trying to denigrate your stirling efforts to bring extreme weather events to the public’s attention but it’s important to be accurate I feel.
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Bernard
/ October 20, 2014Quite some erosion:
Home many millimeters have just been exfoliated from that island?
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dtlange
/ October 20, 2014Amazing and terrible. It doesn’t look like the landscape has ever experienced this type of deluge. Not even close…
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Griffin
/ October 21, 2014That is terrifying.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 20, 2014California Heat Delivers a Costly Blow to Coastal San Diego
San Diego, known for having one of the most desirable climates in the United States, set a record over the summer that will never be broken: It had zero days that were cooler than normal. None. Four were exactly the climatological norm, and 90 were warmer than average.
For 13 days this year, including three days this month, Lindbergh Field, the city’s official weather station near the bay, has hit 90 degrees or hotter. The average number of 90-degree days in an entire year: 1.3.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20141014/california-heat-delivers-costly-blow-coastal-san-diego
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dtlange
/ October 20, 2014Lindbergh Field (SAN) sits next to San Diego Bay on what is likely a tidal flat, subject to marine cooling. SD itself, is an urban heat island with buildings and pavement that stretch to the hills that border it on the North and East *At least that’s the way I remember it). Not good that it stays so hot.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 20, 2014In pictures: Kashmir floods aftermath
Last month’s floods in Indian-administered Kashmir killed 281 people and left the main city of Srinagar under water. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called it a “national disaster”.
Link
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Colorado Bob
/ October 20, 2014Heat Wave Continues for Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia
Southern Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia remain in the midst of a baking and, for some, record heat wave.
Temperatures in southern Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia will continue to soar 6 to 12 C (10 to 20 F) above normal through Saturday as cooling thunderstorms remain absent.
This includes in Asuncion in Paraguay, Santa Cruz de la Sierra in Bolivia and Sao Paulo in Brazil. Rio de Janeiro will heat up this weekend.
Link
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Colorado Bob
/ October 20, 2014The Brazilian capital of Brasilia broke its all-time record high on Wednesday as temperatures soared to 36.0 C (97 F). The previous record was 35.8 C (96.4 F) from Oct. 28, 2008, according to data obtained from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology. ………………………….. A high around 27.5 C (lower 80s F) is more common in Brasilia during October.
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Jay M
/ October 20, 2014Tenerife, Srinigar, Paraguay, Genoa, let’s make a pinterest chart! (sarcasm)
Serious floods and serious droughts abound.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 20, 2014Alaska Arctic Policy Commission hears concerns about economy, climate change
After nearly two years of meetings and conferences in which members of the Alaska Arctic Policy Commission heard from Arctic stakeholders, the group made another stop in Barrow recently to hear from delegates again before submitting their final report.
This time, the commission met with locals on the North Slope as part of the Week of the Arctic, an event featuring workshops, presentations and testimony, and hosted by the Institute of the North.
Link
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Colorado Bob
/ October 20, 2014Fossil fuel divestment: climate change activists take aim at Australia’s banks
A ‘national day of divestment’ will see more than 1,000 bank customers switch their accounts away from the big four banks
Link
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dtlange
/ October 20, 2014Good for them, I hope their action prompts many others too.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 20, 2014At Least Six Dead in Mudslides After Tropical Storm Trudy Dumps Heavy Rain on Southern Mexico
“A highly localized but extreme rainfall event occurred just east of where Tropical Storm Trudy made landfall along Mexico’s Pacific coast east of Acapulco,” said weather.com meteorologist Nick Wiltgen. “The town of Ometepec picked up 15.91 inches of rain in 24 hours. Unfortunately, this region is home to some very steep mountain ranges so this kind of rain inevitably leads to landslides and debris flows, which can be deadly.”
http://www.wunderground.com/news/tropical-storm-trudy-mexico-impacts-20141019
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Colorado Bob
/ October 20, 2014Drought Hits São Paulo, Stirring Debate Ahead of Brazil Election
SÃO PAULO—The worst drought in 80 years is causing water shortages for an estimated 13 million people in Brazil’s most populous state and threatening businesses in an area that is the engine of the nation’s economic growth.
It is also becoming a campaign issue for Sunday’s presidential election, as rival political camps dispute who is to blame for a growing water crisis in South America’s biggest city.
President Dilma Rousseff took to Twitter to blame her rival’s Brazilian Socialist Democracy Party for a lack of investment that has “condemned São Paulo to the biggest water supply crisis in its history.”
Link
Few things about this article .
A. SÃO PAULO has 20 million peole.
B. The records there are 84 years old. So when one reads this article remember this the worst drought in the POR. It could be the worst drought in a very, very long time.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 20, 2014The economic toll is rising. Dry weather has damaged coffee and sugarcane harvests around São Paulo state, home to 44 million people. Brush fires have erupted in the mountains north of the city. Depleted canals have forced grain producers to ship their wares by truck instead of barge, driving up costs.
Companies around São Paulo are scrambling for water to keep their operations running in a state accountable for one-third of the nation’s GDP.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 20, 2014I have been following the events in Brazil all this year, and to see that it was 97 F degrees last week there, gives me great pause. And the largest city, in the largest country in South America has just 4 percent of it’s largest water supply left, makes California look lush.
And people running the thing , are fools. Climate change is going weed out the fools very quickly.
Ask yourself tonight, where would you go if water stopped coming out of your taps ? Because the largest city, in the largest country in South America has just 4 percent of it’s largest water supply left.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 20, 2014Death Of Northern White Rhino Leaves Only Six Left In Existence
A 34-year-old male northern white rhino has died in a wildlife conservancy in Kenya, leaving on six northern white rhinos left in the world. Suni, one of four northern white rhinos living in the Ol Pejeta Conservancy, was the first-ever northern white rhino to be born in captivity. He arrived at the conservancy in 2009 from Dvůr Králové Zoo in Czech Republic as part of a breeding program along with another male and two females.
Link
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Colorado Bob
/ October 20, 2014Brazil’s Largest City Marks Hottest Day on Record
Oct 18, 2014 – 04:36 GMT
Brazil’s Largest City Marks Hottest Day on Record SAO PAULO – The temperature soared to 37.8 C (100 F) on Friday in Brazil’s largest city, the highest recorded since Sao Paulo got its first meteorological station in 1943. The record heat comes two months ahead of the official start of summer in the Southern Hemisphere. The previous record, 37 C, was set in January 1999.
http://brazilbusiness.einnews.com/article__detail/229820745?lcode=-usuDQ8DGH26hHnpvUOenA%3D%3D
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Colorado Bob
/ October 20, 2014Way off topic –
The Greeks have uncovered the most amazing tomb in 100 years . Every week brings more amazing finds –
Queen of the Underworld Sheds New Light on Greek Tomb
Newly revealed mosaic may hold key to unlocking mystery: Who was buried in the massive mound?
Greek archaeologists have discovered the image of a young, red-haired goddess being swept off to the underworld inside a 2,300-year-old tomb near the ancient site of Amphipolis in northern Greece. Identified as Persephone, daughter of Zeus, the goddess portrayed on a mosaic floor provides a key new clue to what in recent months has become a much publicized mystery: Who was laid to rest in the immense, marble-walled tomb 61 miles (99 kilometers) northeast of the Greek city of Thessaloniki?
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/10/141018-amphipolis-tomb-persephone-mosaic-greece-archaeology-alexander-great/?google_editors_picks=true
Whoever was buried here fought with Alexander the Great. The things they found are amazing. And they have not entered the main tomb.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 20, 2014” If this proves to be the case, Worthington added, the tomb might hold the remains of Roxane, Alexander the Great’s wife, or Olympias, his mother. Both women were put to death by one of Alexander’s generals, Cassander, as he secured the throne of ancient Macedonia.”
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Colorado Bob
/ October 20, 2014Everything we have seen in this dig has been female. One of the great finds in history is about to be told. And it is a woman buried there.
Whoever was buried here fought with Alexander the Great.
His mother , or wife surely fall into that range.
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dtlange
/ October 20, 2014That’s a lot of history:)
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dtlange
/ October 20, 2014I’ve been watching various mainstream weather sites to see how, and what, they are reporting in regards to the issues we talk about here — and the resources used here.
North America is often checked. This one is about Canada because of the vulnerability of the Tar Sands oil complex in Northern Alberta — though there are other anomalies to watch for too. And Can-Gov is doing its damned best to quash or outlaw negative climate forecasts.
Accuweather:
‘This is the AccuWeather.com fall forecast for Canada, which includes the months of September, October and November 2014.
Fall 2014 temperature departure forecast
Unusual warmth will persist into the fall across western Canada. We predict a warmer fall compared to normal for British Columbia (Vancouver region). This is due in part to sea surface temperatures off the West Coast in the northeast Pacific remaining 1-2 degrees C above average and dry surface conditions from the summer.
Overall, the fall will be drier compared to normal for interior western Canada (including Calgary, Alberta) which is unfortunate news for wildfire containment in British Columbia. The pattern may briefly switch during October leading to some wetter conditions. A large portion of British Columbia and northwestern Alberta has received only 50 to 75 percent of normal rainfall this summer.’
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dtlange
/ October 20, 2014And, I like see what is available to the ‘average’ weather consumer.
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dtlange
/ October 20, 2014Climate News Network:
Ice loss sends Alaskan temperatures soaring
Scientists analysing more than three decades of weather data for the northern Alaska outpost of Barrow have linked an astonishing 7°C temperature rise to the decline in Arctic sea ice.
LONDON, 17 October, 2014 − If you doubt that parts of the planet really are warming, talk to residents of Barrow, the Alaskan town that is the most northerly settlement in the US.
In the last 34 years, the average October temperature in Barrow has risen by more than 7°C − an increase that, on its own, makes a mockery of international efforts to prevent global temperatures from rising more than 2°C above their pre-industrial level.
http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/2014/10/ice-loss-sends-alaskan-temperatures-soaring/
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dtlange
/ October 20, 2014Arctic sea ice, one of the two main drivers of the jet stream — the northern most.
As Charlie Brown might have put it, “Good grief…”
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dtlange
/ October 20, 2014Too weird for words. Though the lost continent of Mu does come too mind:
How Climate Change Is Fueling the Miami Real Estate Boom
As a city sitting virtually at sea level, Miami has been called ground zero for the problems posed by climate change, a place where rising sea levels threaten its future existence…
…the storm surge impact of hurricanes will be amplified, and lower-lying areas of the city will be uninhabitable. That’s actually not the worst of it: Under higher sea levels, the Biscayne Aquifer—where southeast Florida draws its drinking water—will increasingly suffer from saltwater intrusion…
As bleak as this future would seem to be, few with real skin in the game in Miami—residents, real estate investors, and companies—are backing away from long-term investment. Exhibit A: Miami has been undergoing a nearly unprecedented surge in real estate construction, with planning discussions centering less on who will leave first and more on how high new projects can be built. Among the projects under way, for example, is an 80-plus-story behemoth in Brickell Center, the city’s urban core. If Miami is on the verge of being a modern-day Atlantis, those who would have the most to lose are apparently not buying it.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-10-20/how-climate-change-is-fueling-the-miami-real-estate-boom
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dtlange
/ October 20, 2014I share this iconic ‘activism in action’ image that shows the power of photography.
– Greenpeace zodiacs protest in front of a nuclear war ship carrying nuclear weapons, 1988.
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dtlange
/ October 21, 2014It looks like we in the Pacific Northwest will get hit with a bit of rain over the next few days — 5-7 inches from three storms. San Francisco will be at the southern extent. S. Cal. is still in the lurch.
NWS text with an Oct. 20 accuweather blog graphic:
Valid 00Z Tue Oct 21 2014 – 00Z Thu Oct 23 2014
…Heavy rain expected across the Northwest, Northeast, and Florida Keys
over the next few days…
The most active region this period continues to be the Pacific Northwest,
where an onshore fetch continues relatively unabated for the next few
days. Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are anticipated with each fresh
cold front passage, with total accumulations of 5-7″ slated over the next
few days — with locally heavier amounts — per Weather Prediction Center
(WPC) rainfall forecasts.
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dtlange
/ October 21, 2014“California Dreamin”… such a reality. Well, 40 plus years of my life anyway.
“I fell down off a curb, and I began to sway… ” Nevermind…
But here’s an update I will highlight with a H2o storage graphic from the article:
California’s drought: Getting grimmer, say experts
Every week, a government weather agency releases a report on the conditions of California’s drought. And every week seems to bring grim news. The latest report is no exception.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday that California’s record-setting drought—heading into its fourth year—will likely persist or even intensify in large parts of the state.
… There had been hope for heavy rains this winter. The weather condition known as El Nino was expected to bring strong rains to the state, but those projections have been toned way down.
Now NOAA predicts that even if El Nino does occur, it is expected to be weak with little rainfall.
cnbc.com
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Colorado Bob
/ October 21, 2014Changing rainfall common problem for entire globe, says UN-sponsored book
Siberian wildfires so intense they melted the permafrost beneath them. Flooding in Alberta that paralyzed a major city. Toxic algae blooms in Lake Winnipeg that have grown 1,000 per cent since 1990.
They’re all linked, say the authors of a new United Nations-sponsored book entitled “Water, Energy and the Arab
Awakening,” being released Monday. In it, 16 authors — including former prime minister Jean Chretien — argue that the world can no longer afford to ignore the effects of climate change on rainfall patterns and their consequences for human security.
“There’s a nexus between water security, food security and energy security,” said editor Zafar Adeel. “We’re beyond the point where you can deal with these three areas as separate silos.”
Just look at what happened in 2013, said Robert Sandford, one of Canada’s leading water scientists and one of the contributing authors.
In June, flooding submerged downtown Calgary. Two weeks later, Toronto was hit with more rain in two hours than it usually sees in a month.
Meanwhile, the Global Nature Fund declared Lake Winnipeg the “Threatened Lake of 2013” as longer, heavier rains have been flushing so much runoff into it that efforts to reduce the resulting amount of fertilizers and animal waste aren’t keeping up.
And in northern Siberia, an outbreak of hundreds of wildfires was followed by rainfall so intense it flooded more than a million square kilometres.
“Many of our recent floods were similar in a number of ways,” wrote Sandford.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/changing-rainfall-common-problem-for-entire-globe-says-un-sponsored-book-1.2805548
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dtlange
/ October 21, 2014Good, those are strong messages. I hope they get a lot of ‘play’, and that people take them seriously.
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todaysguestis
/ October 21, 2014World’s Oceans Set All-Time Heat Record for Third Time This Year
http://mashable.com/2014/10/20/global-warming-oceans-warmest-september/
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todaysguestis
/ October 21, 2014Iran prays for rain amid acute water shortage
http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-iran-water-20140928-story.html
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todaysguestis
/ October 21, 2014Iran VP warns of water crisis in Tehran
http://shanghaidaily.com/article/article_xinhua.aspx?id=242262
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dtlange
/ October 21, 2014Re the wet weather heading here to the PNW: Oregon Public Broadcasting, in today’s weather update, did at least infer ‘climate change’ is involved. But I hope we can cement the understated weather bond that exists. (Am I being wordy here?)
Here’s some excerpts that mention abnormally warm sea water putting extra moisture into the air, etc.
Northwest News Network | Oct. 21, 2014 8:54 a.m.
From a temperature standpoint, Autumn is off to an unusually mild start across the Northwest.
… Washington State Climatologist Nick Bond said a lingering patch of warm water in the eastern Pacific is contributing to the balmy weather.
“Especially at night, it has been really balmy,” he said. “That air has been coming off that warm water and just been warmed and moistened as a consequence.”
Another important reason for the mild start to fall is a persistent trough of low pressure west of British Columbia. University of Washington weather blogger Cliff Mass wrote this changed the prevailing winds over us to southerlies “that blow in warmer than normal air.”
http://www.opb.org/news/article/npr-unusually-mild-start-to-autumn-across-northwest/
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wili
/ October 21, 2014Click to access ncc2014.pdf
Anything other than the direst projections for temperatures over the next century more and more have to rely on unproven or non-existent carbon sequestration technologies being rapidly developed and massively produced. For the viability of the planet to sustain future generations we are now depending essentially on pixie dust.
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June Roullard
/ October 21, 2014On a slightly positive note…
http://www.sfgate.com/science/article/A-sprinkle-of-compost-helps-rangeland-lock-up-5832244.php
“Experiments on grazing lands in Marin County and the Sierra foothills of Yuba County by UC Berkeley bio-geochemist Whendee Silver showed that a one-time dusting of compost substantially boosted the soil’s carbon storage. The effect has persisted over six years, and Silver believes the carbon will remain stored for at least several decades.”
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wili
/ October 21, 2014So now we know what was in the box gifted to Sam by Galadriel (in the book)! http://tolkiengateway.net/wiki/Sam%27s_garden_box
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Colorado Bob
/ October 21, 2014Climate change now ‘irreversible’ – Prof McPherson
The climate change message is just depressing, no matter what way you look at it.
Best case scenario, we all have to change our lives dramatically, just to keep us vaguely on the right track.
Worst case scenario – were all doomed.
Unsurprisingly, that’s a hard message for scientists to get us all to listen to, which might be why Professor emeritus Guy McPherson is a teacher of natural resources, ecology and evolutionary biology, but is also a grief counsellor on the side.
Prof McPherson taught and conducted research at the University of Arizona for 20 years before leaving the university in 2009.
He will be speaking about climate change in guest lectures in New Zealand from October 22 to November 1.
Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/tvshows/paulhenryshow/climate-change-now-irreversible-2014102123#ixzz3GokZsJvP
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Griffin
/ October 21, 2014It’s looking like the Balkans may be next in line for the remnants of Gonzalo. Let’s hope that the rain is not as bad as it has been for them recently.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 21, 2014Ocean’s living carbon pumps: When viruses attack giant algal blooms, global carbon cycles are affected
Date:
October 21, 2014
Source:
Weizmann Institute of Science
Summary:
By some estimates, almost half of the world’s organic carbon is fixed by marine organisms called phytoplankton — single-celled photosynthetic organisms that account for less than one percent of the total photosynthetic biomass on Earth. When giant algal blooms get viral infections, global carbon cycles are affected, scientists have now discovered.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/10/141021101510.htm
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Colorado Bob
/ October 22, 2014Brazil’s largest city marks hottest day on record
The temperature soared to 37.8 C (100 F) here Friday in Brazil’s largest city, the highest recorded since Sao Paulo got its first meteorological station in 1943.
The record heat comes two months ahead of the official start of summer in the Southern Hemisphere.
The previous record, 37 C, was set in January 1999.
Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology, known as Inmet, attributes the unseasonably hot weather to stationary high pressure that is blocking cold fronts from bringing desperately needed rain to the drought-stricken southeastern part of the country.
While the 37.8 C reading registered by the Inmet station is the official high, municipal monitoring stations in other parts of Sao Paulo reported temperatures above 39 C (102 F). EFE
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2014/10/17/brazil-largest-city-marks-hottest-day-on-record/
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Colorado Bob
/ October 22, 2014Water Crisis Seen Worsening as Sao Paulo Nears ‘Collapse’
Sao Paulo residents were warned by a top government regulator today to brace for more severe water shortages as President Dilma Rousseff makes the crisis a key campaign issue ahead of this weekend’s runoff vote.
“If the drought continues, residents will face more dramatic water shortages in the short term,” Vicente Andreu, president of Brazil’s National Water Agency and a member of Rousseff’s Workers’ Party, told reporters in Sao Paulo. “If it doesn’t rain, we run the risk that the region will have a collapse like we’ve never seen before,” he later told state lawmakers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/sao-paulo-warned-to-brace-for-more-dramatic-water-shortages.html
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Colorado Bob
/ October 22, 2014RS wrote a post about this just a few days ago , he used a number of 4,1 , this Bloomberg article is saying 3,3 . And the hottest day in city’s history occurred between last week , and now.
Big TV media in the US have never said a word. About this .
If one lives in largest city in South America, and runs runs out of water …………………. You have to leave.
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dtlange
/ October 22, 2014“… two months ahead of the official start of summer in the Southern Hemisphere.
…stationary high pressure that is blocking cold fronts…”
Both hemispheres are going through this sort of thing.
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Andy in San Diego
/ October 22, 2014Idaho water table in some towns/cities take a beating.
2 years of low snow pack, reduced snowfall, more people sticking draws into the ground… we all know the routine and where it leads.
http://www.boiseweekly.com/CityDesk/archives/2014/09/24/wood-river-valleys-water-table-is-dropping
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Colorado Bob
/ October 22, 2014RS wrote a post about this just a few days ago , he used a number of 4,1 , this Bloomberg article is saying 3,3 . And the hottest day in city’s history occurred between last week , and now.
Big TV media in the US have never said a word. About this .
If one lives in largest city in South America, and runs out of water …………………. You have to leave.
The first great climate disaster of the 21st century is about to unfold in the largest city in South America. There 20 million people looking for fresh water . Not to wash dishes, or bath , but just a drink. Dirty or clean.
Trust me this will all be written up as something no one saw coming .
The Brazilians cut down their forest for money , soybeans, coffee, sugar, meat , you name it. The Mayans cut down their forest just to make lime. Because they were making temples as fast as they could. And every temple had to have a white limestone plaster to build it. If one reads up on how much wood it took the Mayans to make the plaster to build their temples. We were cutting every tree they could find to make lime.
The Brazilians have been cutting every tree to make money , There seems to be lesson here , if one strips the Earth of it’s cover . Nature will bite you in the ass.
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dtlange
/ October 22, 2014We are bitten, alright.
I didn’t know about the Mayans being driven by religion to cut trees for lime — incredible.
Thanks for that.
Brazil is on its resource rampage mainly for export markets with a lot going to USA. I presume they get paid in US dollars too. You can’t drink dollars either.
I remember some of the dream schemes being cooked up out of the ether during past So. Cal. droughts and water shortages — towing Arctic icebergs down and then drinking the meltwater.
With all of the deforestation going on, I would expect more musicians to raise hell too.
Most of the beautiful music we hear comes not from vibrating strings, or a musicians fingers — but from the fibers of the wood vibrating. Wood that came from trees — old growth trees. Only one or two trees can produce enough wood for a thousand cellos, guitars,pianos, or violins. I’m disappointed in the many musicians who won’t even defend their instruments. Oh well.
Also, the navies and empires of history all were possible because of the forests cut for wood for their ships to travel the seas.
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Mark from New England
/ October 22, 2014“If one strips the Earth of it’s (tree) cover, Nature will bite you in the ass.”
Sums it up nicely in a worthy bumper sticker statement.
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Andy in San Diego
/ October 22, 2014An interesting read on how we are building directly where the ocean will be, seemingly deliberately. Taxpayers are on the hook for the insurance on 1/2 trillion dollars worth of property sitting right on the water in places like barrier islands, Florida etc…. The wealthy owners pay diddly for the insurance, Joe Taxpayer gets the bill.
It also mentions $400 million in beach replenishment voted on by congress this year.
The rationale for this is to increase property tax revenue, with zero risk for the town/county as the insurance is provided by the government at dirt cheap rates. I’ve read the same elsewhere, it is being deliberately done in Miami / Dade County as well.
http://gulfnews.com/business/property/general/why-americans-are-flocking-to-their-sinking-shores-1.1390356
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dtlange
/ October 22, 2014The machinery for “beach replenishment” is fossil fueled, and mostly Bakken Shale grade diesel. A huge carbon foot-print.
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dtlange
/ October 22, 2014THE//INTERCEPT:
Remembering Rick Piltz, Who Fought Government Suppression of Science
Rick Piltz, a climate change whistleblower, died this weekend of cancer.
Piltz revealed in 2005 that the Bush administration was revising supposedly scientific reports to cast doubt on the existence of human-caused climate change. He leaked copies of the edited documents to The New York Times, after resigning from his job as a senior associate for the U.S. government’s Global Change Research Office.
Piltz’s move not only drew attention to Bush’s intentional suppression of scientific fact, but also to the administration’s dubious hiring practices. Less than a week after the story was published, the official who made the edits, Philip A. Cooney, announced he would resign as chief of staff for the Council on Environmental Quality in the White House to return to his former role as a lobbyist for the petroleum industry.
Cooney’s edits downplayed startling predictions for a warming planet. In a document titled “Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program,” he crossed off a section that described the “serious impacts” native people would soon face as melted glacial ice disrupted sustenance hunting and fishing. The final report instead said blandly, “Warming could also lead to changes in the water cycle in polar regions.”
The image below is of the document w/ link to follow:
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dtlange
/ October 22, 2014THE//INTERCEPT LINK: https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/10/20/remembering-rick-piltz-fought-government-suppression-science/
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Gerald Spezio
/ October 22, 2014Cooney is a trained forked tongue lawyer (J.D. Villanova) whose “professional ethic” is to represent his PAYING client zealously, – & he sure done it, Mama.
On June 8, 2005, The New York Times said that it had obtained internal White House documents which proved that Cooney had unilaterally edited the national climate change reports during 2002 and 2003 to water down its conclusions.
As the article states,
“ In a section on the need for research into how warming might change water availability and flooding, he crossed out a paragraph describing the projected reduction of mountain glaciers and snowpack. His note in the margins explained that this was “straying from research strategy into speculative findings/musings.”[11] ”
Cooney and his role in editing climate change reports were referenced in the documentaries: An Inconvenient Truth, The 11th Hour and Everything’s Cool.[12]
During a March 2007 congressional hearing, Cooney conceded his role in altering reports to downplay the adverse effects of man-made emissions on Earth’s climate. “My sole loyalty was to the President and advancing the policies of his administration,” he told the United States House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.[13][14]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Cooney
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dtlange
/ October 22, 2014Sure, “… only following orders.”
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dtlange
/ October 22, 2014Government Accountability Project Dec. 2013 Full Interview w/ Rick Piltz 1:03
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Gerald Spezio
/ October 22, 2014“His life was gentle; and the elements
So mixed in him, that Nature might stand up
And say to all the world, THIS WAS A MAN!”
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dtlange
/ October 22, 2014It’s me again. On an internet roll coming across interesting views and lectures on important topics. It’s my continuing education as I live on SSI solo in a rooming house in the PNW. Always like to share with people that care.
This, published on Jun 30, 2014, UCSD Professor David Victor for the Charles David Keeling Annual Lecture — Getting Serious About Climate Change. U Cal TV
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Gerald Spezio
/ October 22, 2014Three months ago I posted a direct response on You tube to academic David Victor’s preposterous claim that international law will deliver us from near term extinction.
Gerald Spezio
3 months ago
David G. Victor is a professor of international relations and director of the Laboratory on International Law and Regulation at UCSD.
His PhD is in “political science.”
Not a shred of sacred international law has been applied to the ongoing Zionist Israeli genocide & butchery of the Palestinian People in the Gaza Concentration Camp.
THE PALESTINIANS ARE BEING MURDERED BEFORE OUR VERY EYES BY THE VICIOUS ISRAELIS, & ALL THE INTERNATIONAL LAW IN THE BOOKS DOESN’T HELP STOP THE MURDERING.
International Law genius Richard Falk’s international law arguments were easily & summarily dismissed by the Zionist Israeli colossus.
SO MUCH FOR INTERNATIONAL LAW AS AN ANSWER TO GLOBAL HEATING.
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dtlange
/ October 22, 2014Sorry, Gerald, but I don’t see any relationship between intl law, Zionism schisms, Richard Falk’s views, etc with David Victor’s speech. His social science aspect was well informed, and most, if not all mirrors what Robert and others have talked about here. Seeing his graphics and hearing his speech had added impact to what has been mostly a text based treasure trove here at RS.
BTW: I question your motives for making such a off-topic fuss over this video. 🙂
I admit that I am unabashedly partial to anything presented under the Scripps or Keeling banner.
Peace
DT
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wili
/ October 22, 2014As shown by the Cryosphere Today graphs, there has already been dramatic loss of Antarctic sea ice this (southern) melt season. As Tanada put it over at the Env forum at POForums: “After setting an all time record a few weeks ago Antarctic sea ice has melted at a record setting pace and has now tied 1998 for this date. For those claiming that Antarctic sea ice is an ever growing phenomenon this presents a problem: if the ice is getting so much greater how come it is now at the same level it was 16 years ago? Melt season has barely begun.”
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html
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humortra
/ October 22, 2014As a newbie observer rather than an active participant in the discussion I found this article interesting –
“Researchers may have hit upon an answer to a climate-change puzzle that has eluded scientists for years, namely why glaciers in the Karakoram range of the Himalayas have remained stable and even increased in mass while glaciers nearby and worldwide have been receding. Understanding the ‘Karakoram anomaly’ could help gauge the future availability of water for hundreds of millions of people.”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/10/141022123537.htm
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Andy (at work)
/ October 22, 2014Sao Paolo reservoirs down to 3.3% capacity. That leaves them with a month perhaps 2? Going to be challenging to truck in water for >20 million folks.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/sao-paulo-warned-to-brace-for-more-dramatic-water-shortages.html
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Andy in San Diego
/ October 23, 2014Central America – bad drought. Guatemala hit pretty hard.
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dtlange
/ October 23, 2014Very bad drought conditions in C and S America. This is just the beginning.
(Reuters) – A severe drought is endangering more than half a million people in Honduras, ramping up pressure on them to migrate, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) said on Wednesday.
Honduras, the nation with the world’s highest murder rate, is already reeling after a deadly fungus devastated output of coffee, the main cash crop, and a severe regional drought left nearly 3 million people struggling to feed themselves across Central America.
In a statement, the IFRC said some 571,710 people were affected by the drought in Honduras, which had left them in danger of hunger due to dying crops, higher food prices and less work for agricultural day laborers.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/us-honduras-drought-idUSKCN0IB2QQ20141022
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Colorado Bob
/ October 23, 2014Front Range slopes slid in record numbers during 2013 floods
When record-breaking rains turned parts of the Front Range into a flooded disaster area last fall, an overlooked, major geological phenomenon was also causing damage in three foothills counties.
A federal government geologist who recently put his findings — and his warnings — into a published study, tallied 1,138 debris flows from Sep. 9 -13 in Boulder, Larimer and Jefferson counties.
“This was historically unprecedented,” said research geologist Jeff Coe with the U.S. Geological Service……………………….Two other unusual and deadly debris flows occurred in other areas this year. A slope slid and buried three men near Collbran on the Western Slope in April, and a slide near Oso, Wash., killed 43 people in March.
“These were all historically unprecedented,” Coe said. “With each one of these we said that…You can only say that so much before there is a suspicion that something is changing.”
Link
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dtlange
/ October 23, 2014Boy, I’ll say! I’ve been expecting to see something like this after seeing so much water, soil, and debris gushing out of the Front Range, and out into the flats taking out bridges as it went alluvial.
And the Oso, WA slide — I am familiar with it here in PDX, OR. That was a huge land mass that turned to moving mush.
Thanks, CB
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Gerald Spezio
/ October 23, 201414 California Communities Now on Verge of Waterless-Ness; Mass Migration out of California Seems Imminent.
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1030249-14-california-communities-now-on-verge-of-waterless-ness-mass-migration-out-of-california-seems-imminent/
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todaysguestis
/ October 23, 2014NASA Landsat 8 images of drought in Brazil
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=84564&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_image
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dtlange
/ October 23, 2014Wow! And just one year’s difference. Not Good.
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Bernard
/ October 23, 2014Looks like Western New Zealand is showing similar developments.
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lesliegraham1
/ October 24, 2014I’m in New Zealand.
The headline in yesterday’s local paper for the central north island was “Here we go again!”
It was refering to the third consecutive year of drought.
It affects everything here as it is a small country whose economy is based mainly on dairy and meat exports. If the farming incomes drop then the income of (almost) everyone else drops too.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 23, 2014Chemicals blamed for the vanishing monarch butterfly
Date
October 24, 2014 – 12:41AM
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/chemicals-blamed-for-the-vanishing-monarch-butterfly-20141023-11a90b.html#ixzz3GzD5j2Za
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dtlange
/ October 23, 2014Right, and it’s all for massive herbicidal monoculture used for profit crops — and not for food for the hungry.
Thanks, CB.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 23, 2014Brazil hydro reservoirs dip into danger zone
Sao Paulo, 22 October (Argus) — Hydroelectric reservoir levels in drought-stricken Brazil’s main subsystem declined to their lowest level on record this week, highlighting a growing risk to electricity supply.
On 21 October, hydroelectric reservoirs in the southeast/center-west subsystem reached 20.93pc of their total capacity, down by 4.4pc since 30 September.
This is the first time that hydroelectric reservoir levels in the subsystem – which holds roughly 70pc of Brazil’s installed capacity – have dipped below 2001 levels. In 2001, Brazilian consumers were forced to reduce their electricity consumption by 20pc as part of a program to guarantee electricity supplies.
Reservoir levels in the southeast/center-west are expected to reach 19pc of their capacity by 31 October, compared to 21.3pc in the same period of 2001, according to the national systems operator (ONS).
The declining reservoir levels in the country’s most important subsystem have resulted in record imports of LNG for thermoelectric power generation.
Link
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dtlange
/ October 23, 2014They’re running out of water and power — a new linkage of the two terms that can usually be fixed by paying the bill. Now it’s a tragic way for them to ‘pay the bill’.
The world should pay very close attention to this process of ‘running up the tab’.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 23, 2014Russian grains in ‘even worse’ condition than 2009
Russia’s autumn-sown grains crops are heading into winter “even worse” condition than five years ago, when losses from cold weather, and summer drought, sent wheat production tumbling, SovEcon warned.
Dry weather has allowed for speedy plantings, with farmers having planted 16.2m hectares of grains already, only 300,000 hectares short of the government target, and roughly 3m hectares ahead of last year.
Some parts of Russia, and western Ukraine, have received less than 20% of normal rainfall over the past 45 days, according to MDA.
Link
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dtlange
/ October 23, 2014Also:
Canadian wheat quality a ‘major concern’, says CWB
The quality fears already surrounding European, Ukraine and some US wheat mounted over Canada’s crop as grain marketing giant CWB warned of a “major concern” over the grain being harvested.
CWB – the former grain export monopoly for Canada’s Prairies, the main producing region – highlighted “poor weather conditions” for the wheat harvesting, a vulnerable period for crops, when rains or frost can damage kernels and lower milling specifications.
“During the month of September crops have been impacted by excess moisture and an early frost across the Prairies, as well as an untimely snowfall in parts of Alberta,” the group said.
Quality was a “major concern in western Canada”…
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/canadian-wheat-quality-a-major-concern-says-cwb–7534.html
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dtlange
/ October 23, 2014In SW British Columbia in the 1970’s, a friend would bring home rucksacks full fresh Alberta Red #3 winter wheat from the Alberta Wheat Pool, which we would grind/mill ourselves. Then our two families would bake some the freshest and best whole wheat bread…
It powered me getting through radiation (cobalt-60) and chemo therapy for the cancer I had. So, 40 years later, here I am trying to save the climate with this great bunch of do-gooders here at RS.
###
“…unusually wet weather…”
Warning of Fusarium Head Blight Infection in Canadian Wheat
13 October 2014
CANADA – High levels of fusarium head blight infection in this year’s winter wheat crop is creating a significant challenge for those planning to feed the grain to livestock, writes Bruce Cochrane.
The executive director of Winter Cereals Canada reports exceptionally high levels of fusarium head blight infection in this year’s winter wheat crop is creating a significant challenge for those planning to feed the grain to livestock.
Fusarium head blight, a fungal disease that infects cereal crops, produces a toxin that dramatically reduces the end use quality of the grain.
As a result of unusually wet weather the level of fusarium infection has been exceptionally high in winter wheat this year.
http://www.thepigsite.com/swinenews/37910/warning-of-fusarium-head-blight-infection-in-canadian-wheat
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Colorado Bob
/ October 24, 2014Talk about a place to get proxy data –
Artifacts reveal that early humans adapted to very high elevations
Archaeologists have discovered evidence for 12,000-year-old human settlements in the Andes at more than 14,200 feet above sea level. The sites are higher than any human settlement from the same period anywhere in the world.
Link
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Colorado Bob
/ October 24, 2014The team found a second workshop, Cuncaicha four miles east of Pucuncho. The shelter is 14,700 feet above sea level.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 24, 2014So went looking for the drought in Brazil , and I saw this first :
Fires and smoke in eastern Asia
Aqua/MODIS
2014/296
10/23/2014
04:45 UTC
I should be snowing there, the border of North Korea is at the bottom of the frame.
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Gerald Spezio
/ October 24, 2014Cowabunga Bob, what a punch to the brain. That photo is truly devastating.
We would not know anything about this crushing confirmation of MASSIVE climate change.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 24, 2014George Lucas is on PBS tonight . He arrived on the Warner Brothers lot , the day that Jack Warner left.
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Gerald Spezio
/ October 24, 2014George Lucas is not a bright fellow. He completely swallowed Joe Campbell’s literary fluff.
He was a big part of Campbell’s last farcical potboiler, THE INNER REACHES OF OUTER SPACE.
Campbell openly endorsed the old Kantian claim that Newton’s laws are embedded in our brain meat genetically.
Einstein’s relativity completely debunked Kant’s sacred infallible philosophy that had been accepted gospel by all for more than a century.
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dtlange
/ October 24, 2014CLIMATE ANOMALY SOLVED STOP TITANIC DUE TO CLEAR HARBOR MOUTH 0800 HRS STOP ‘There is NO climate crisis’: Man-made global warming is a lie STOP
Climate change has been proven to be a lie, according to a leading meteorologist.
John Coleman, who co-founded the Weather Channel, claims that the belief humans are causing climate change is not backed up by science.
In an open letter attacking the UN, the 80-year-old from San Diego, said that what ‘little evidence’ there is for global warming points to natural cycles in temperature.
‘There is no climate crisis,’ he wrote. ‘The ocean is not rising significantly. The polar ice is increasing, not melting away. Polar bears are increasing in number.
‘Heat waves have actually diminished, not increased. There is not an uptick in the number or strength of storms.
‘I have studied this topic seriously for years. It has become a political and environment agenda item, but the science is not valid.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2804727/There-NO-climate-crisis-Man-global-warming-lie-not-backed-science-claims-leading-meteorologist.html
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lesliegraham1
/ October 24, 2014Beggars belief does it not.
I posted a few facts in the comments section for what it was worth – pointing out that describing Coleman and his pal Happer (?) as ‘leading meteorologists’ was straight out of a Monty Python sketch as both work for the Heartland ‘climate scientists are like the Uni-bomber’ Institute. (What a surprise.)
Bear in mind that the Daily Mail is just about THE worst offender in the UK. It was the origin of the ‘pause’ myth in the form of David Rose – their serial climate change denying third rate hack.
I’m ashamed to say it is still one of the more popular gutter press rags in England.
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dtlange
/ October 25, 2014Ah, yes. Indeed… might I suggest: http://youtu.be/evlrs5Bi_6E
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Andy in San Diego
/ October 24, 2014I read that bit too, that kind of rubbish makes me shake my head like Katherine Hepburn. They are really making any stretch now to cause confusion. My take is that they’re running out of material, and know it.
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dtlange
/ October 25, 2014Andy in SD: I like your Kate Hepburn ref. — thanks for the much needed 🙂
How’s things in SD?
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wili
/ October 24, 2014Climate Central has now picked up the Sao Paulo drought story: http://www.climatecentral.org/news/one-of-sao-paolos-biggest-reservoirs-is-nearly-dry-18225
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todaysguestis
/ October 24, 2014São Paulo running out of water as rain-making Amazon vanishes
The severity of the situation in recent weeks has led government leaders to finally admit Brazil’s financial powerhouse is on the brink of a catastrophe.
São Paulo residents should brace for a “collapse like we’ve never seen before” if the drought continues, warned Vicente Andreu, president of Brazil’s Water Regulatory Agency.
Dilma Pena, chief executive officer of Sabesp, the state-owned water utility that serves the city, warned last week that São Paulo only has about two weeks of drinking water supplies left.
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL6N0SI6G020141024?sp=true
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todaysguestis
/ October 24, 2014The largest city in Brazil is running dangerously low on water
http://www.vox.com/2014/10/23/7047533/sao-paulo-drought-water-crisis-brazil-election
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Kevin Jones
/ October 24, 2014Hey, crew. Perhaps we should play: What Story Is RS Working On Now? Robert! We Miss You! 🙂 p.s. trust all’s well
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wili
/ October 24, 2014Glad to hear that someone else freaks out a bit when we get radio silence from the rs front. Perhaps it is because he is so solicitous when he’s active here that we go through withdrawal a bit and his silence seems particularly deafening?
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dtlange
/ October 25, 2014It looks like we’ll have do a little of the ‘heavy lifting’ around here while Robert busies himself elsewhere. There is plenty to do with no shortage of topics… 🙂
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dtlange
/ October 25, 2014Ha… I say to myself, “‘heavy lifting’ …plenty to do … no shortage of topics”. I sound like a homeroom teacher…
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Mark from New England
/ October 24, 2014He may be in a more active phase of his PhD work. Every 6 – 8 weeks or so he doesn’t post an article for a week or two. I’d like to learn more about his academic work, which is climate change related. But yes, I miss him too.
In other news, that was quite a nor’easter we just had here. It was a bit like a tropical storm in Providence, RI where I’ve been the last few days. Very strong wind even inland.
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Griffin
/ October 24, 2014Yes it sure was Mark. It was interesting to note that some places on the coast of Mass. totaled over 6 inches of rain, which was quite a bit more than forecast. The gusts to near 60 mph caught some folks by surprise as well. I was not surprised. Robert gave us a heads up that this one was coming back at the beginning of the month!
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dtlange
/ October 24, 2014Large swaths of warm air in Arctic (+2.29 C average anomaly):
Antarctic now averaging +C after being in the minus for a while:
Australia getting warn too.
Oct. 24, 2014 ClimateReanayzer
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dtlange
/ October 26, 2014ClimateReanalyzer auto-updates graphic above — Oct. 26: Arctic now at +3.34 C air temp.
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dtlange
/ October 25, 2014For an informative sojourn, check out:
‘Climate pioneer James Hansen reflects on working with Van Allen
Alumnus earned bachelor’s, master’s, doctoral degrees from U of Iowa.’
When James Hansen first began his studies at the University of Iowa, legendary UI space scientist James Van Allen was building instruments in the basement of the physics building.
Though the climate pioneer began his studies as a mathematics student and always had an interest in space studies, Hansen says he was too nervous to approach Van Allen directly.
“I was a very shy student, and very unconfident, and I specifically avoided taking any of Professor Van Allen’s courses because I didn’t want him to know how ignorant I was,” Hansen says. “And, by the way, that was a very bad strategy, if you want to succeed you should not sit in the back row and try to be unnoticed.”
http://now.uiowa.edu/2014/10/climate-pioneer-james-hansen-reflects-working-van-allen
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dtlange
/ October 25, 2014Brazil: The dire situation unfolding there could be an early glimpse of things to come. Impacts will ripple, or explode, throughout the world since so many trading commodities are involved. The human suffering may even penetrate MSM’s limited scope. Body counts and economic indicators may dominate. Who knows?
And, like I tried to point out to others (this was in regards to the unique environmental and topographical, circumstances in Santa Barbara, CA) someone, or someplace “has to go first”. Brazil?
Food for thought.
###
Historic drought sparks riot in Brazil
Friday, October 24, 2014, 2:01 PM – Water reservoirs in Brazil are running dry amid the worst drought in 80 years and what many call water mismanagement.
As Brazilians head back to the polls on Sunday for a run-off vote to elect the next president, one topic dominates in the state of Sao Paulo: Water.
Reservoirs are running dry amid the worst drought in 80 years and what many call water mismanagement.
In the city of Itu — hour from Sao Paulo — people are taking drastic measures after more than nine months without rain. They’ve burned buses in protest as taps run dry and hijacked water tankers in desperation.
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/historic-drought-sparks-riot-in-brazil/38531/
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Andy in San Diego
/ October 25, 2014I was thinking about this today as to what occurs if the water to a city or heavily populated area stops.
No water for drinking or washing immediately comes to mind for everyone. But consider toilets, and what happens with the sewage generated by that many people. This causes opportunity for disease as wells as the obvious stink / discomfort. Water system infrastructure decays (quicker). Sanitation plants suffer the same. Water heaters, copper piping oxidize internally. All industry suffers or ceases. Hospitals can’t clean linens properly, general cleaning suffers.
I would not be surprised if when the water is on, people start hoarding. Fill the bathtub, buckets etc…. to have some water to use when the water is off. This of course may accelerate the decline.
They are about a month from what should be the rainy season. If it is another bust this year, I don’t see any fall back that can resolve this quickly beyond grabbing water that is earmarked for other cities from rivers.
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wili
/ October 25, 2014“I would not be surprised if when the water is on, people start hoarding. Fill the bathtub, buckets etc…. to have some water to use when the water is off. This of course may accelerate the decline.”
That’s what I was thinking. It took about two weeks to go from about 5% to about 3% left in the main reservoir. I’m thinking that 3% will go even faster now that people know that this is their last chance to get _any_ water from the tap. I’d be surprised if they make it to the end of the week (unless they get substantial rain).
Note that this is the largest city _in the Western Hemisphere_…not just in Brazil or in South America. The 7th largest city in the world. If it falls, it will be (or should be) a much bigger deal than Katrina and the destruction of much of New Orleans. But given the woeful state of the MSM in the US, we may indeed barely hear anything about it (unless there is an Ebola outbreak there!).
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Andy in San Diego
/ October 25, 2014Another piece of infrastructure that ceases to operate is fire hydrants.
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wili
/ October 26, 2014“Another piece of infrastructure that ceases to operate is fire hydrants.”
Ouch!
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nigel64
/ October 27, 2014Toilets are quite an item if the water goes off – next thing that happens is water in the bowl evaporates and then you lose your U trap effect – I seem to remember a PBS docudrama that included this some yrs ago, and recommending sealing the bowl with clingfilm to stop evaporation (and nasty smells)
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Andy in San Diego
/ October 25, 2014Here is a gem!
One of the biggest issues with the Sao Paolo water depletion is the drop in the reservoirs.
We also know the election plays into this as well.
Using google translate, I figured out how to navigate the Sabeps website and get to the daily recorded levels. I then saw the system at 13.6% for the Sao Paolo supply and thougth “hmmm….” it was around 3.6% on the 19th.
So I stepped this back day by day.
On the 20th there is a reported 23.9 mm of rain on that site resulting in a 10.8% increase. I then navigated forward & back through the days. The monthly accumulated seems to go lower or higher illogically depending on how you navigate (go forward/backward/randomly). Sometimes it jumps up 10.8% on the 20th, sometimes on the 25th, sometimes on the 24th. Sometimes the monthly rainfall volume drops from one day to the next (would that be un-rain?).
I am simply wondering if the reported volume was fudged upwards for the election, or the reported volumes are determined on the fly (not actual measurements, but an equation based on day + other stuff).
The daily reported levels are at:
http://www2.sabesp.com.br/mananciais/DivulgacaoSiteSabesp.aspx
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Andy in San Diego
/ October 25, 2014Or it could just be a buggy website….
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dtlange
/ October 25, 2014Great sleuthing Andy — stepping back, scrolling, comparing, double checking, etc.
It’s a valuable skill, and one I try to practice — especially when there is so much info to gather in this internet age with a translator capacity.
Sao Paolo, et al — I wonder what other unbiased precision oriented source can be tapped (?).
Ps Been noticing that the H2O levels at Lake Mead are increasing these days — I suppose it is because of recent monsoonal moisture in the SW since there is no snowpack runoff.
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Andy in San Diego
/ October 26, 2014dt,
I’ve been watching the Lake Mead numbers too through the summer, and the increase do coincide with the monsoon / hurricane residue deluges. Those look to be honest numbers. Also, when I saw the upticks I checked the upstream reservoirs to see if it is due to a water transfer. It was not, so those are net increases in the system.
Thanks on the sleuthing. It seems more political the more I digest it (or perhaps I am simply that skeptical of people and their motives). The incumbent is under the gun with the opposition using mismanaged water as the key point in their campaign. It is tough to believe a >10% increase of a lake that size in one day from ~25 mm of rain. I am left wondering whether a promise was made to the water company (govt money to increase capacity), political favor to be spent later, nepotism or otherwise. It smells like deception meant to disarm the opposition before the election.
The numbers prior to the increase function properly and are logical. But once you hit 19th through ~23rd the site behaves oddly and shows those bizarre numbers that only show increase. I’ld like to figure the math behind it to determine what is doing it. Sensors have to be disabled as inputs and bogus numbers stuffed in. Or a “fudge factor” has been put in place where the totals are tallied. Or old numbers have been substituted as inputs or totals.
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dtlange
/ October 26, 2014Yeah, Andy. It’s like some ‘Alice in Wonderland’ quest. I think I’m glad you’re puzzled too.
Lake Mead etc.: Back a number of years ago when Santa Barbara wanted to import State Water — the book Cadillac Desert by Marc Reisner was popular. PBS did a series on it. Cadillac Desert — Water and the Transformation of Nature (1997) Part 1 begins with the SW and Mead. It’s now 2014 — the whole water cycle of the Colorado River was grossly overestimated when Hoover Dam, etc. was built.
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bassman
/ October 25, 2014Great article about global temps from NOAA below. The warming of the oceans surface everywhere makes me think we are shifting somehow from the 2000-2012 period to a different PDO AMO environment. At least the longer this continues (ocean surface warming) the more likely it that it’s occurring.
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/five-things-know-about-2014-global-temperatures
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dtlange
/ October 25, 2014Indeed, Bassman (solid body or hollow. elec. or standup? :). Thanks.
‘Five things to know about 2014 global temperatures’
‘ 1. We’ve already set records at the yearly scale… With that in mind, we’ve already set some warmest-year records. The 12-month period ending September 2014 was the warmest October-through-September period on record. Beyond that, it was the warmest of any 12-month period on record…’
‘2. We’ve done this without El Nino.’
– #2 stands out for me, and makes me wonder about the impacts of low Arctic ice and the struggling jet stream.
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bassman
/ October 25, 2014Some people prefer walleye, some prefer perch, some prefer crappie. Me? I’m a Bassman.
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dtlange
/ October 26, 2014Very good — something fishy, something squishy. It’s good to know you.
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dtlange
/ October 26, 2014Center for American Progress Action Fund
By Tony Carrk | October 24, 2014
10 Things to Expect Next Year If Republicans Win the Senate
6. Use of the Congressional Review Act to weaken environmental rules, jeopardizing public health
Under the Congressional Review Act, once the administration submits a major rule to Congress, Congress can pass a joint resolution disapproving of the administration’s rule. If a joint resolution disapproving the rule is enacted, the rule would not go into effect and the administration would be prohibited from issuing a substantially similar rule in the future. The Congressional Review Act allows the Senate to expedite consideration of a joint resolution disapproving of a final administrative rule within 60 days, and this consideration is not subject to the filibuster.
Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK)—who would be the chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works if Republicans were to control the Senate next year—has already said he would challenge every Environmental Protection Agency rule under the Obama administration using the Congressional Review Act. One rule in Republican sights is the proposal to cut carbon pollution from existing power plants by up to 30 percent by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. This rule, which is still in the comment phase and not yet final, would not only curb dangerous pollution that is warming the planet, but it would also save American families money on their energy bills and improve public health by avoiding up to 6,600 premature deaths and 150,000 asthma attacks in children annually. When fully implemented, the rule is expected to save as much as $93 billion in 2030. For every dollar invested in the rule, the American people will see $7 in benefits.
http://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/general/report/2014/10/24/99598/10-things-to-expect-next-year-if-republicans-win-the-senate/
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dtlange
/ October 26, 2014Methane Hydrate back in the news: A quest for “Son of Deepwater Horizon”?
Fire, Ice, & a Huge Quantity of Potential
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dtlange
/ October 26, 2014I think I wish it was an early Halloween prank…
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wili
/ October 26, 2014We seem to be addicted to pocking big scary monsters with sharp pointy sticks.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 26, 2014The Geek floods last Fri.
Around 300 cars were swept away in floodwaters after 14 centimetres (5.5 inches) of rain fell in some 90 minutes.
“It was like a sea raining down,” Andreas Pachatouridis, the mayor of Peristeri, the seventh largest town in Greece, told state-run news agency ANA.
http://www.focus-fen.net/news/2014/10/25/352459/greece-hit-by-heavy-flooding.html
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Colorado Bob
/ October 26, 2014Newly Discovered Microbe Is Key in Climate Change
Earlier this year, the international team discoveredthat a single species of microbe, previously undescribed by science, was prominent in permafrost soils in northern Sweden that have begun to thaw under the effect of globally rising temperatures. Researchers suspected that it played a significant role in global warming by liberating vast amounts of carbon stored in permafrost soil close to the Arctic Circle in the form of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas trapping heat in the Earth’s atmosphere. But the actual role of this microbe — assigned the preliminary name Methanoflorens stordalenmirensis, which roughly translates to “methane-bloomer from the Stordalen Mire” — was unknown.
The new research nails down the role of the new microbe, finding that the sheer abundance ofMethanoflorens, as compared to other microbial species in thawing permafrost, should help to predict the collective impact on future climate change.
Read more at http://scienceblog.com/74978/newly-discovered-microbe-key-climate-change/#d8AOHAdY2QEAAR4t.99
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wili
/ October 26, 2014This is crucial. The only major model that I know of that attempted to include permafrost carbon assumed 0% contribution from methane. https://www.skepticalscience.com/Macdougall.html
Even so, they conclude that adding this feedback means that CO2 levels will remain constant or steadily increase over the next two centuries (except under unrealistically low climate sensitivity assumptions), even if _all_ further human emissions had stopped _completely in 2013_.
Add the much higher global warming potential of methane as a major contributor in permafrost melt, and you are going to have much higher temperature trends and, through other carbon feedback from those higher temperatures, even higher CO2 levels going forward.
We desperately need new, more realistic models that include these forcings from methane (as well as other elements excluded, as pointed out in that SkS writeup).
And even more than that, we need global policies that move us rapidly to a zero ghg emissions economy/society and then on to a negative ghg emissions society–one that puts the ‘eco’ back in ‘economy,’ working to restore not only the climate system, but the many other systems that have been disrupted or destroyed by our current culture of utter annihilation. (Not that all systems will be restoreable, at least not on anything like human time scales.)
The main legacy of our time should not be a totally trashed globe with nothing really left for future generations. But so far that is mostly where we are headed.
The whole topic seems worthy of a main post by rs whenever he returns to active duty, if I may be so bold. ‘-)
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nigel64
/ October 26, 2014I’ve been reading on soil microbes for a large scale planting project I’m working on towards maximising phosphate uptake from farm runoff. I’ve found that the many of the soil fungi (especially mycorrhizas) that most plants depend on tend to fail (or underperform) at higher temperatures and elevated CO2 levels (e.g. 470 ppm). As plant roots and root zones hold so much of the World’s carbon and phosphorus this has horrific implications – I gave a presentation to my council about this recently and they blanched. Will post more on this later on.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 27, 2014wili
This is crucial.
Yes it is, first because microbes rule the Earth, and always have. And second like this one I have been following , we don’t know what has been frozen for 2 million years in Siberia.
But they are all about to wake-up like “Snow White” being kissed by Pandora . And all there little simple cell friends are coming with them.
I used to worry about bacteria , but in the last few months , the fungi will hit our food supply first, and we are already under attack. And it’s insects doing better carrying fungi doing better , their infection rate goes up.
The bugs get better, and the pathogens in their mouths get stronger.
This will infect our entire food supply from mushrooms to moose.
. All these creatures turn their populations in hours , and days.
They will run over us , like a cross town bus.
On the bright side –
We really a have really good way , so that the smallest living things on Earth can destroy Facebook.
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climatehawk1
/ October 26, 2014Swedish town “like Venice” after heavy rains: http://www.thelocal.se/20141025/swedish-town-like-venice-after-heavy-rain
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Colorado Bob
/ October 26, 2014Turkey one day after the Athens event –
Antalya Manavgat Sel Baskını Manavgat Sular Altında 25.10.2014
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Colorado Bob
/ October 26, 2014Post-floods, homelessness and despair in rural Kashmir.
The September floods that ravaged Kashmir for about a month — the worst in more than a century here — razed her house to the ground.
According to official figures, 282 people lost their lives and 403 were injured. More than 559 bridges, 4,350 miles of roads and hundreds of irrigation canals were heavily affected. In Srinagar alone, 91,000 houses were damaged. In a press conference held last month, Jammu and Kashmir’s chief secretary, Muhammad Iqbal Khanday, said that a preliminary assessment suggests the floods have cost the state $16.3 billion.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/10/26/post-floods-homelessnessanddespairinruralkashmir.html
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dtlange
/ October 26, 2014ClimateReanalyzer auto-updates graphic above — Oct. 26: Arctic now at +3.34 C air temp.
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Andy in San Diego
/ October 26, 2014Over the past week or so I’ve been puzzled by why the southern hemisphere oceans haven’t shown the high anomalies. My amateur suspicion is that the volume of heat transfer in the Antarctic region is operating as a heat sink. The melt runoff from under the shelves and other melt inputs (ie: fresh water freeze/melt) acting to offset the absorbed heat.
It makes me wonder if one were to look at the retraction over time (years) of this cold anomaly in the southern ocean (size, temp offset) then could it be possible to extend the trend into the future to get a rough gauge of it’s reduced impact. This then could factor into regional & global behavior over time. Perhaps the past through present behavior and trends of the arctic could be used as proxy information, and/or verification ( back casting ).
Probably a dumb idea, but I kind of puzzled over it for a spell.
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dtlange
/ October 26, 2014Thanks, Andy. I wasn’t familiar with the term ‘back casting’ but I certainly understand what it tries to do. It’s another valuable tool in what I’ll call real time problem solving, which is what seem to be doing here. And we are working against a time frame that is shrinking. Ah, the thrill…?
For me, I tend to use an instinctive mathematical approach to most everything ‘problem solving. First, adequately describe the problem. If I can do this, the problem should pan out as a tidy, concise equation. Both sides of the equal sign should read the same — backwards or forwards (even in time), left to right or right to left, up or down, etc. A balanced but moving yin/yan solution is probably the best we can hope for.
With climate change, we are trying to do this while all of the conditions change moment to moment. Worse, we have politics to deal with — a cruel curse of a burden.
On a historical note: Albert Einstein, with his always busy mind, often used his instinct to push him ahead.
But, today’s warming Arctic still jumps to the front of my brain as a cause for alarm.
The ‘Arctic Emergency’ still exists — Published on Aug 1, 2014
Arctic Emergency: Scientists Speak On Melting Ice and Global Impacts (1080p HD)
Anyone needed a refresher should view it. It’s on Youtube, or I can repost it here.
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todaysguestis
/ October 26, 2014Global warming has doubled risk of harsh winters in Eurasia, research finds
“The origin of frequent Eurasian severe winters is global warming,” said Prof Masato Mori, at the University of Tokyo, who led the new research.
“The agreement between observations in the real world and these computer models is very important in giving us more confidence that this [doubled risk of severe winters] is a real effect,” said Prof Adam Scaife, a climate change expert at the UK Met Office and not part of the research team. “The balance of evidence suggests this is real.”
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/26/global-warming-has-doubled-risk-harsh-winters-eurasia-research-finds
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todaysguestis
/ October 26, 2014Cold Winters in Europe, Asia Linked to Sea Ice Decline
“This is a very solid paper that supports the mechanism identified in other recent papers linking sea-ice loss in the area of the Arctic Ocean north of Scandinavia to persistently cold winter conditions in central Asia,” Francis said in an email.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/cold-winters-in-europe-asia-linked-to-arctic-sea-ice-decline-18239
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dtlange
/ October 26, 2014Thanks, TG. Glad JF’s email in included in the piece.
Not at all sure what Mike Wallace’s (U of WA.) view is getting at. Don’t know him either. It’s my practice (that I learned the ‘hard way’) that designated Nay sayers or ringers are often in the mix.Or which came first.
Refer to the ClimateReanalyzer Arctic Air or Water temp. to see the ‘These studies show that the Barents-Kara area seems to be a “hotspot” (from the article).
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Colorado Bob
/ October 27, 2014Thanks, TG.
I’m in other rabbit holes , but this all bends in .
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Colorado Bob
/ October 27, 2014Now a minute to remember Jack Bruce –
Adios Buddy ……………….
cream – i’m so glad
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Colorado Bob
/ October 27, 2014CREAM – NSU
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Colorado Bob
/ October 27, 2014Jack Bruce wrote every hit Cream ever cut , Eric Clapton never wrote a hit until left Cream.
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dtlange
/ October 27, 2014Right, Bruce was the major musical force in Cream. He was the brains of the outfit.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 27, 2014One more that foretold our world –
Cream – Politician
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dtlange
/ October 27, 2014All right, I’ve heard ‘Wheels of Fire’ many times — I used to jam along with my Fender Stratocaster. Must have listened to the guitar licks, now I hear the lyrics. Thanks.
Yeah, ’twas a ’73 Strat like this on, even where the finish is rubbed off: (Sorry, Robert for the diversion.) http://www.mainstreetvintageco.com/catalog/item/4827275/7288992_files/73FENDERstratSB_1_.jpg
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Andy in San Diego
/ October 27, 2014I’ve been reviewing the reservoir levels in southern Brazil. They seem to drop ~ 0.1 to 0.2% per day except for when the water is shut off.
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Andy in San Diego
/ October 27, 2014“Dilma Pena, chief executive officer of Sabesp, the state-owned water utility that serves the city, warned last week that São Paulo only has about two weeks of drinking water supplies left.”
“Even the posh Jardins neighborhood in São Paulo city is suffering, as reduced water pressure means water doesn’t always make it through the pipes to the city’s highest areas.”
Deforestation jumped by 29 percent in the last officially recorded period, between August 2012 and July 2013, marking the first increase since 2008.
A survey produced by INPE using satellite imaging showed that the Amazon lost 5,891 square kilometers, or 2,275 square miles, of forests in that period, an area almost five times the size of the city of New York.
About 20 billion tonnes of vapour evaporate from the Amazon region every day. A big Amazonian tree, with a crown measuring 20 meters, can evaporate up to 300 liters a day, compared with one liter evaporated by a square meter of ocean, according to Nobre.
http://www.trust.org/item/20141024121030-es9ea/?source=hpMostPopular
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dtlange
/ October 27, 2014“Even the posh Jardins neighborhood in São Paulo city is suffering, as reduced water pressure means water doesn’t always make it through the pipes to the city’s highest areas.”
California better take heed to this one e.g. “Water flows (uphill) towards the money”.
Those amazing Amazonian tree crowns — what an evaporation engine! What a loss.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 27, 2014If Peter the Great had not been a drunk , Russia would not be full of drunks.
But Peter was drunken fool , But he was also a drunken genius.
The CEO of TOTAL Oil company’s jet just drove into a drunk Russia driving a snow plow.
It was the worst conditions That planes flight in. Zero eye site.
But the CEO of TOTAL Oil was a rich guy, and he never thought some drunk jack-ass from Russia in the fog would kill him and his crew.
They just missed each other . By inches .
Lesson here –
Don’t leave Moscow in bad weather.
No matter how rich you are.
Remember , there are drunkin’ snow plow drivers around your take off . No matter how rich you are.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 27, 2014Bunt knowing the Russian’s as I do ………………… They would kill the CEO of TOTAL Oil .
If you get a chance to kill the head of France’s Oil Company , you drive a drunken snow plow driver on the runway.
That’s the Russian’s . You hire a fool for pennies. for days . And collect rewards for years
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dtlange
/ October 27, 2014Nice, CB. Where did you get that info?
My stepfather (RIP) once told me about winter time in CT, USA, and they would leave a glass of whiskey, as a sort of tip) in the street side mail box for the plow operator. The tip was always taken.
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Colorado Bob
/ October 27, 2014you are welcomed to Lubbock buckle chin strap.
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robertscribbler
/ October 27, 2014It’s beginning to look a lot like El Nino…
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dtlange
/ October 27, 2014HISTORY BACK CHANNEL:
Watching Brazil going through its current crisis, I’m reminded of how events unfolded in the autumn months of 1939. And how Poland was the first of many major entities to be crushed by the Nazi, and Axis, war machine.
Brazil is looking to be the first major country to be traumatized, and possibly destroyed, by the fossil fuel consumer axis that is wrecking the world’s climate. Undoubtedly there will be more. And it grows more imperative that we cease this reckless destruction of the weather.
World War Two, as horrible and murderous as it was, could very well prove to be a minor preamble compared to a climate system rendered dysfunctional. The way things are looking, there will be many more ‘Brazils’, as some Pacific islanders already know.
Me, I feel lucky to be aware of this, and to have some abilities to try to avert something. And I also feel a lot of ‘survivor guilt’. But maybe that’s just empathy, and I’ll take it.
STAY TUNED
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Andy (at work)
/ October 27, 2014I believe (and have believed for some time) that we as a race have set up so many dominoes especially in the past 40 years that it is now a house of cards (dependency chains). The opportunity for conflict is so great, and can spread so fast. For example, this drought in Brazil has it’s local component, such as intra-city competition for water, conflict with neighboring countries, water refugees.
But beyond that, their sugar cane production is off 15%+ this year, their cars run on this. The vehicles generally can run on processed sugar cane or oil, adding to that mess. The soy production goes to China. Reduced export moves portions of the conflict to Asia. Soy prices then spike, causing commodity prices to increase as well as stress in the poor population (internal conflict). This puts pressure on marginal nations. Marginal nations then compete internally and with their neighbors. Internally, they revert to tribal / regional associations over national control (Somalia, the poster-child nation of the future?). Food riots.
There are so many of these domino setups now worldwide on such grand scales. A bad year for corn in the US causing pork prices to skyrocket as well as corn prices hitting Asia. North American wheat becoming vulnerable to drought / deluge impacting the middle east. California rice crops nailed this year, possibly impacting world prices for rice and thus hitting south Asian nations. Drought in India causing food panics (rice) in other nations. Russian/Ukraine wheat reductions hitting other nations.
The importers haven’t changed, if anything they need to import more. The exporters are now at the mercy of the climatic shift. They can only mitigate/optimize so much.
Exporters
((Yield per acre) * (climatic inputs)) – (internal consumption) = export
Importers
(cost of import * requirement) / (money + export) = amount imported
If (amount imported < requirement) then trouble happens.
If (export < requirement) then trouble happens
I think the opportunity for conflict is increasing in seemingly wild trajectories (yet are not so wild). Coupled with the acceleration in the climatic shifts we are now witnessing the trigger points will become hair triggers.
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dtlange
/ October 27, 2014Here’s a favorite 3 minute attitude adjustment. Not quite a math quest. A very different take on points of view:
“When I was a boy I thought about the times I’d be a man
I’d sit inside a bottle and pretend that I was in a can…”
Arthur Lee & Love – Seven & Seven Is (Live) Glastonbury 2003.
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todaysguestis
/ October 27, 2014New study strengthens link between Arctic sea-ice loss and extreme winters
Professor Jennifer Francis, from Rutgers University in the US, explains:
“The idea is that ice loss in this area tends to create a wavier jet stream pattern, which causes colder winters in central Asia and blocking patterns that make this weather regime very persistent….Based on this new solid and convincing work, along with the others that support the existence of this mechanism, I think we can call it a done deal.”
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/10/new-study-strengthens-link-between-arctic-sea-ice-loss-and-extreme-winters/?utm_content=bufferb4825&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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Mark from New England
/ October 27, 2014Someday she’ll get her due, and perhaps Trenberth will feel the need to make peace with her.
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Andy in San Diego
/ October 27, 2014Looks like some rain in Brazil per their weather sites (need to google translate them). Concentrated in the western area (mountains) but perhaps the south east will get a dose as well.
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robertscribbler
/ October 27, 2014Long range forecast shows 5-30 mm of rain per day from November 1 to November 12:
http://www.worldweatheronline.com/Sao-Paulo-weather/Sao-Paulo/BR.aspx
So far, the forecasts for rain have been a miss. But this forecast looks a bit more robust.
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dtlange
/ October 27, 2014It’s good to hear you again, Robert.
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climatehawk1
/ October 27, 2014Just the rice crop in India at risk. That’s not important, is it? http://www.deccanchronicle.com/141027/nation-current-affairs/article/rising-temperatures-threaten-farm-output
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dtlange
/ October 27, 2014‘ Climate-denying Australia slammed with another record-breaking heat wave
A month before the start of summer, the country’s already sweltering ‘
‘ … Australia’s first major heat wave of the not-quite-yet summer is unusual in both temperature highs and duration, the Sydney Morning Herald reports. The country’s hottest-ever October day, coming a month before the official start of summer, saw average maximum temperatures of 36.39 Celsius (97.5 degrees Fahrenheit) — a record unmatched since record-keeping began in 1910. That was Saturday; Sunday, according to early estimates, was almost as hot.
Heat waves “are all occurring generally about a week early and the extent is longer than observed before,” said a spokesperson at Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, echoing experts’ belief that climate change is causing Australian summers to start earlier and last longer, with the hottest days peaking to new highs. Those beliefs certainly bore out last summer, its hottest on record, which saw ongoing heat waves and temperatures creeping as high as 122 degrees Fahrenheit.
The extreme heat was most likely a direct consequence of climate change, five separate teams of researchers, using distinct methods, all confirmed in what the New York Times called ”perhaps the most definitive statement climate scientists have made tying a specific weather event to global warming.”
http://www.salon.com/2014/10/27/climate_denying_australia_slammed_with_another_record_breaking_heatwave/
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