This is not something that is normal for typically ice-choked Barrow, Alaska. Today, 25 to 35 mile per hour winds and fetch-driven, 10-15 foot high waves are breaking through coastal barriers and flooding the streets and homes of a town that is used to far more placid seas.
(Recently, Barrow city officials had a barrier of sand erected to protect structures from the newly ice liberated waters of the Beaufort Sea. Today, a strong coastal low pressure system’s surf smashed that barrier, flooded the coastal road, broke a channel through to an inland lake, and swamped numerous structures. Image source: Barrow Sea Ice Webcam.)
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There’s been quite a lot of potential storm energy building in the Beaufort Sea this season. Nearby waters in the Chukchi have ranged between 3 and 5 degrees Celsius above average. Warmth, moisture and low pressure systems have flooded in from the Pacific off the back side of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge to the south. It was a pool of warmth and heat just waiting for a trigger.
As August swung toward September, the near polar regions began to cool even as the Summer sun retreated. Temperature differentials between ice free sections of the Chukchi and Beaufort and remaining ice covered regions in the Central Arctic Basin hit new extremes. And, yesterday, a strong low pressure system began to develop off the Northern Alaskan coast (see video of yesterday’s building surf here).
(Fifteen foot waves north and west of Barrow, Alaska as detected by Earth Nullschool at 2:05 PM EST on August 27th. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)
In response, Alaska weather forecasters yesterday issued a High Surf Advisory. They probably should have issued a Coastal Flood Warning instead. For by today, the low had intensified to a 985 mb system. It has wrapped its left side in 35-45 mph winds and 10-15 foot seas. Seas that are now ripping large holes through coastal barriers erected to protect Barrow from a newly ice-liberated and storm-tossed Arctic Ocean.
High waves and surging seas are expected to persist, and possibly intensify, over the next 12-24 hours for Barrow. So currently observed coastal flooding may continue to worsen through tonight and tomorrow.
Coastlines Newly Vulnerable to Open Water Storms
The Northern Alaskan Coastlines, as with many Arctic shores, are used to typically placid or ice-locked waters. In the past, when sea ice dominated the Arctic Ocean during Summer, there were few open stretches of water available for a storm to generate fetch. Now, vast regions of Arctic Ocean remain open for long periods during July, August and September. In addition, with high amplitude waves in the Jet Stream delivering so much heat and moisture from more southerly regions, the late Summer and early Fall Arctic is increasingly primed for storms.
The result is strong storms running through open waters and generating powerful surf. Surf that is aimed at gently sloping beaches and low elevation coastlines with few natural barriers to protect against waves and storm surge. It’s a new vulnerability that today, for Barrow, resulted in a storm riled and ice free Arctic Ocean surging into streets, roadways and homes. Another climate change related situation that is new — if not at all normal.
Links:
High Surf Advisory For Barrow Alaska
Hat tip to Ryan in New England
Hat tip to Griffin
Hat tip to Timothy Chase (fetch discussion)
robindatta
/ August 27, 2015It is one of perhaps many “new normals” to follow.
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Timothy Chase
/ August 27, 2015Would this be a case of less ice equals more fetch?
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robertscribbler
/ August 27, 2015Exactly. 985 mb storm is driving 14 foot waves and 40 mph winds in the offshore region. 25 to 35 mph winds and 11 foot waves in the near shore environment. It’s about equivalent to a typical nor-easter seen off the US East Coast. But the coastline at Barrow is not accustomed to such storms. So the impacts would be greater.
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robertscribbler
/ August 27, 2015Image updated. It’s a real mess…
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robertscribbler
/ August 27, 201537 mph sustained winds at Barrow station now. That’s basically tropical storm force.
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Ryan in New England
/ August 28, 2015Looks like the “sea wall” they built to protect the town isn’t fairing too well. They probably didn’t experience these conditions too often when the wall was built.
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climatehawk1
/ August 27, 2015Tweet scheduled.
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Enchanted Seashells, Confessions of a Tugboat Captain's Wife
/ August 27, 2015wow, I’m glad hub’s not there right now…
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Andy in SD
/ August 27, 2015There is not much solid ground on that coastline to erect any real defense. Traditionally the “solid” can from permafrost and ice, along with a minuscule amount of surface melt in the summer. This provided the equivalent of “rock”.
With the deep melt into the soil, it turns from a solid to a soil or even a non Newtonian liquid. There is nothing to anchor a defense onto. And there is scant material which qualifies as a defense locally (sand won’t do it, sorry).
Time to think about moving Barrow inland.
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wili
/ August 27, 2015I was wondering if Barrow might actually be sinking too, for the same reasons you mention here.
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robertscribbler
/ August 27, 2015Certainly possible. The permafrost melt certainly can tend to result in subsidence.
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Andy in YKD
/ August 28, 2015We are well inland on the YKD delta and even still we had 36 hours of high gusty winds as the low went by us. Where is the $$$ supposed to come from to pay for moving Barrow and all the other towns and native villages on the coast? Not going to happen imho. To far away from the centers of power.
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Andy in SD
/ August 27, 2015If / when that hits the broken up conglomeration of floating ice crap which seems to qualify as “Ice Extent”, we may see further degradation.
Time to watch this locale for a few days, around N81, W141.
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robertscribbler
/ August 27, 2015JAXA shows extent plummeted to 3rd lowest on record today. Concentration under the central basin high has bumped Area up a bit to 6th lowest on record for the date. Some air temps in the range of -2 to -5 C would retard melt in a few regions. But many more regions are still above the -2 C threshold.
GFS and ECMWF model runs show storms running in from the Beaufort, the Barents and the Laptev. Central Arctic cyclone may develop by early September.
Atsani remnants keep slugging slowly toward the Bering. And we have three tropical cyclones running around the southern edge of the RRR.
It’s going to be an interesting September.
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wili
/ August 27, 2015I’m imagining big slabs of ice surfing in on these waves and smashing through structures once safely inland. It doesn’t seem to have happened this time, but surely this is a possibility?
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robertscribbler
/ August 27, 2015Possible. But right now it looks like there’s no ice left in this region. I suppose it’s possible the storm could tap into some of the off-shore remnant. Let’s hope not.
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wili
/ August 27, 2015Yes, that could be bad, since some of those chunks are likely to be huge–some of the last remnants of the very old, very thick sea ice that used to exist all along the Canadian Archipelago. Of course, it would take quite a wave indeed to bring a big ice burg very far inland.
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robertscribbler
/ August 27, 2015They tend to pile up on shore into berms. If the waves are energetic enough to push the berms into structures, that would be a rather bad impact. Though it’s rough at Barrow, and we see some flooding, it doesn’t yet look like we have that kind of energetic wave action directly striking structures.
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redskylite
/ August 27, 2015Very timely warning reported from the Woods Hole Research Center today, on a known Abrupt Climate Change Tipping Point. . . . .
“The United States must lead a large-scale effort to find the tipping point – at what level of warming will the cycle of warming and permafrost thawing become impossible to stop,” said Dr. Holmes. “The real and imminent threat posed by permafrost thawing must be communicated clearly and broadly to the general public and the policy community.”
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redskylite
/ August 27, 2015U.S. scientists warn leaders of dangers of thawing permafrost
http://whrc.org/u-s-scientists-warn-leaders-of-dangers-of-thawing-permafrost/
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robertscribbler
/ August 27, 2015This is good to see, considering how stigmatized the whole issue has become.
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redskylite
/ August 27, 2015who started applying the term “Alarmist” to known possibilities ? I wonder – Mr Watts , Ms Curry or Monckton ?
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redskylite
/ August 27, 2015Well said David Balton, deputy assistant secretary for oceans and fisheries at the US State Department, I couldn’t agree more . . . .
“Ultimately, we need to change the way we live if we’re to keep the planet in the safe zone.”
This has to sink in to people and governments everywhere – we must change, we must get our carbon balance right again.. if we value our creation/evolution . .
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/aug/27/ocean-climate-change-more-attention-us
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redskylite
/ August 27, 2015At last more and more institutions are realizing that the predicted changes are really happening now … lets hope it spurs governments and business into action . .
“This is where we expect to see more extreme weather such as floods and droughts in the future, and what we are gradually starting to see in the present,” said Frank Raes, the head of the climate change unit at the EU’s Joint Research Centre which commissioned the report.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/aug/27/european-extreme-weather-belt-linked-to-worst-drought-since-2003
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Andy in YKD
/ August 28, 2015Meaningful change come from the people, then when the way forward is clear the governments will safely lead from behind.
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Robert A. Vella
/ August 27, 2015Another couple of decades, or so, and they’ll be surfing in Barrow!
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robertscribbler
/ August 27, 2015I wouldn’t want to be out there today. Looks cold and gnarly.
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dtlange
/ August 27, 2015Robert, a serious development at Barrow.
Will send link to KBOO but think subject and your voice makes for good breaking news on radio.
I will suggest an interview is in order — PDX/Shell/icebreaker protest, etc.
If you connect with a phone number I will forward.
All is best ASAP to edit audio by 4 pm for 5 pm Newscast.
If it happens, likely News Director will call to record chat.
I can be contacted via FB, Twit, dtlange2, or email, or…
Am sending RS link to KBOO first.
DT
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dtlange
/ August 27, 2015Ps Interview just for Barrow and Arctic — not Shell etc, this stuff is the PDX connection.
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robertscribbler
/ August 27, 2015What’s your facebook, DT? I’ll send you my phone # by message there.
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dtlange
/ August 27, 2015https://www.facebook.com/david.langeii
I will forward number to KBOO News Director. It’s a good one to have on hand for future contact.
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robertscribbler
/ August 27, 2015Number sent.
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dtlange
/ August 27, 2015Ps, you should like my FB background image (not Photoshopped.)
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robertscribbler
/ August 27, 2015Ooof. Lots of material up there.
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dtlange
/ August 27, 2015I like Excalibur like sword cloud shape and the glareball sun in the sky. That was the sky that day.
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dtlange
/ August 27, 20151600 HRS PDX Number forwarded to KBOO THX.
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robertscribbler
/ August 27, 2015THX, DT. Will keep a close eye on the phone.
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dtlange
/ August 27, 2015– File under: OPERATIONAL TERMS WE WILL HEAR MORE OF WITH CC: HORDES – DEPRIVED – HUDDLED
‘Hordes of ice-deprived walruses are once again huddled along the Alaskan coast’
Only days before President Obama travels to the Alaskan Arctic on Monday to focus attention on climate change, one of the effects of global warming is again apparent: Hordes of walruses are scrambling onto the Alaskan shoreline, because the Chukchi Sea ice floes where they would normally have rested have melted.
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service confirmed to the Post Wednesday evening that a mass of walruses had “hauled out,” or gathered on shore, near the remote community of Point Lay.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/08/27/ice-deprived-walruses-are-again-huddled-on-the-alaskan-coast/
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dtlange
/ August 27, 2015– Interior of article mentions PDX photog w/ up to date photos. Looks like great link too.
‘Climate Photo of the Week’
Thousands of Pacific walrus begin coming ashore on an Alaska Arctic Ocean beach, as their preferred ice floe habitat melts away, in one of the earliest haul outs known.
http://worldviewofglobalwarming.org/
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dtlange
/ August 27, 2015Gary Braasch at World View of Global Warming.
Has he commented here in the past?
He and his work seems like a kindred.
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redskylite
/ August 27, 2015Thanks for sharing these links and the bad, sad, but not unexpected news. It really saddens me deep in my gut to see that, confusion and suffering among a fellow species.
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climatehawk1 (@climatehawk1)
/ August 27, 2015The walrus info is especially saddening. Here’s why: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/20/science/20walrus.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
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Apneaman
/ August 27, 2015LikeLike
Dana Pearson, aka Vastman
/ August 27, 2015We have unleashed a monster and it’s target is life as we know it… Hope to hear you again on Radio Ecoshock… Alex feels it’s time.
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dtlange
/ August 27, 2015– Wave fetch is dictated by wind, depth and distance until shallow water is encountered when the wave breaks. The lower part of the wave abruptly stops while the top half keeps moving forward. Long distance over deep water makes for big waves.
‘ Banzai Pipeline in Oahu, Hawaii is a surf spot that serves up some of the largest and deadliest waves in the world. If you can hold your own above its razor sharp reef, the surfing community will respect you forever.’
– These are basically fetch driven waves stopped by a shallow reef on a north facing shore.
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Griffin
/ August 27, 2015Thank you for the hat tip Robert. I am humbled to have contributed to this great blog in some way. I hope that by you telling their story from afar, the plight of those who are truly on the front line of a massively changing climate is relayed to many. You do great work Robert. Thank you for what you do.
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robertscribbler
/ August 27, 2015You rock, a Griff. And I agree. Will do a cheeta flip if I see someone surfing out there.
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dtlange
/ August 27, 2015– Refugees — Body Counts — Terrible.
‘Truck of corpses, new shipwreck intensify Europe’s migrant crisis’
As many as 50 corpses were found in a parked truck in Austria on Thursday, and another migrant boat sank off Libya, deepening a crisis that is overwhelming Europe and throwing up new tragedies by the day.
The abandoned refrigerated truck was found by an Austrian motorway patrol near the Hungarian border, with fluids from the decomposing bodies seeping from its back door.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/27/us-europe-grants-eu-austria-idUSKCN0QW19H20150827
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robertscribbler
/ August 28, 2015Ugly. Man, DT that’s a rough story. Stark realization of what is the start of a mass movement of people worldwide.
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Dan B
/ August 28, 2015All athletics: Football, Soccer, cross country, etc. (golf??) have been moved indoors in eastern Washington and Idaho due to smoke. Spokane had worse air pollution than Beijing’s worst a couple days ago.
Fortunately remnants of weather from Hawaii (Danny?) are moving into the state tonight. There is concern that this could bring lightning to the east slope (dry side) of the Cascades and to the eastern half of the state. In western Washington approximately 3% of plants – trees, shrubs, and herbs – are dying. A single spark could turn them into torches.
I hope this region gets a break from this drought next year but it’s looking unlikely. It seems as though the jet stream’s crazy pattern is the new normal. Our governor understands this and talks about it, including today’s visit to the Okanogan complex. Unfortunately our state Senate is controlled by Republicans, mostly from the areas suffering from the fires.
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NevenA
/ August 28, 2015Thanks for this, Robert. I’m linking to it in my latest blog post: Arm’s race (and a storm)
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nickcayman
/ August 28, 2015Reblogged this on Nick Robson's Blog.
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riverofcompassion
/ August 29, 2015Reblogged this on River of Compassion.
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Syd Bridges
/ August 31, 2015From what little I jnow of the northern coast of Alaska, I wonder whether much of the shoreline is silt, dunes, or windblown loess. If no longer consolidated by ice and facing long fetch breakers, I would expect very rapid erosion. Perhaps Mike Huckabee could build a $5 million house there and the taxpayers could insure it. After all, nothing bad could happen to it.
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